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TX-07: Skelly Closes the Gap in New Poll

by: James L.

Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 12:55 AM EDT


Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Michael Skelly (9/7-9, likely voters, 12/5-12/2007 in parens):

Michael Skelly (D): 37 (33)
John Culberson (R-inc): 44 (52)
Other: 6 (-)
Undecided: 13 (16)
(MoE: ±4.4%)

These are some nice numbers for Michael Skelly, whose summer ad campaign has clearly bought him some momentum against unaccomplished GOP Rep. John Culberson in this R+15.6 (but Dem-trending) suburban Houston district.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican, but we're diggin' this trend.

James L. :: TX-07: Skelly Closes the Gap in New Poll
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Hurrican Ike
I saw Culberson on one of the cable channels talking up his efforts re: Hurrican Ike relief.  You could see he was uncomfortable going from his anti-government shtick to essentially panhandling for money from the national audience re: emergency aid.  Boo hoo.  This explains the TV appearance.  He was really pleading for help for himself from the district's voters.

Don't you find this off putting that some of these GOPers and some private citizens feel like they have to take swipes at the Katrina victims before hitting the pitch for helping their own?

We never had this problem before Bush, of course.  The federal government designed and built dams and levees going back to the mid or early 1800s (Robert E. Lee designed and built the St. Louis system in the 1840s that was functioning with few changes untill maybe a decade ago IIRC.)  The government was responsible and the government and the people helped everybody without question.  Teddy Roosevelt made it a matter of pride that the US turned down foreign aid for the San Francisco earthquake of 1906.  Federal and sate aid including the use of Army and Navy personnel was immediate.

We need to get back to the sense of community and family rather than greed and moral "superiority."  The current stock market mess reveals how empty the greed id good school really is.


Good numbers
Skelly spent a lot of TV and it clearly worked. He still has a lot more work to do to pull off the upset but it's becoming more and more realistic by the day.

This is one of the races I am watching closely. It will be interesting to see the next internal to see if Skelly can tie Culberson by October or something like that.


Two Things
1. PVI's are usually inflated for certain reasons.  Obviously Texas is inflated because of Bush being on the ticket for the last two cycles.  

2. I hope this encourages Skelly to self fund whatever it takes to win.


Well
1. Sure.

2. Skelly has always said he'll commit some "significant" resources from his own pocket to this race. The dude is like the Dick Cheney of Wind, so this shouldn't be a problem for him.


[ Parent ]
Yeah
Skelly can pump 2-3 million dollars at least into this campaign and he's already raised close to 1 million from individuals.

He could easily spend 5 million for the campaign.


[ Parent ]
Skelly can win...
Skelly will win but he is probably going to have to self-finance a few million in order to saturate the airwaves. Skell is already raising more then his opponent and has double the COH, but the redness of this district will require Skelly have to spend some of his money.

[ Parent ]
Wow! Awesome!
Now, any word out of TX-10?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

Results impacted by Hurricane Ike?
I hate to question the results as I too am delighted by the prospect of Skelly being competitive in this district, but is it possible that the results were skewed a bit by Hurricane Ike?  

I know the hurricane did not hit Texas until the morning of the 13th, but I see the governor declared a disaster area on the 8th, and some people may have left the district days before the hurricane made landfall.  This might be important if the poll is skewed with more less-affluent people who could not afford to leave work or the area.  

Granted, this is a pretty wealthy district (a lot of rich enclaves west of Houston), but when I saw when the poll was conducted, I was curious.  What do other people think?  


Highly unlikely
First, Culberson's district is completely outside the storm surge zone. The message everyone got for this storm from the beginning was only evacuate if you're in a surge zone, otherwise shelter in place.

Second, as of September 9, the odds of a direct hit by Ike on Houston were still pretty low, as the models still centered around Port Lavaca, some 130 miles south of Galveston. Nobody would have evacuated by the 9th even if they were inclined to leave.

So, I'd not have any concerns about Ike impacting this poll.


[ Parent ]
OT: CQ Rates NC-SEN Tossup
Toss-Up  <------ Republican Favored

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp...


Sounds right
I had the race at Leans R for the longest time, but it's become pretty obvious that that race is now a tossup.

[ Parent ]
Gotta love the quote from the Dole spokesperson
On the Rocking Chairs ad "...it's an attack, and it's not the kind of thing we do down in the South."

No, in my experience its usually much more vicious, centers on race and comes from your side idiot.


[ Parent ]
Huh?
"...it's an attack, and it's not the kind of thing we do down in the South."

I take great offense to that statement.  We in the south have a long and proud tradition of being on the cutting edge of gutter politics.


[ Parent ]
WIN.
Well, you kinda do get that anywhere the Republicans are in power, generally.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]

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