The Census Bureau recently started to release 2007 American Community Survey data for the whole country broken down by congressional district. I’m going to start with total population figures, as that may be the most important figure: while it doesn’t tell us how the composition of the district has changed recently, it does give us a pretty clear picture of the trajectory different districts are on, in terms of where they’ll be come redistricting time in 2010. (I’ll get to income and poverty numbers in a different diary soon. Other information, such as race, education, and age, hasn’t been released and won’t be for a few more weeks.)
I’ll start with the districts which have experienced the greatest population gain. These are the areas that will have to shed the most population (often into newly-created districts).
| District | Rep. | 2000 | 2007 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-06 | Flake (R) | 641,360 | 944,706 | 303,346 |
| NV-03 | Porter (R) | 665,345 | 949,685 | 284,340 |
| AZ-02 | Franks (R) | 641,435 | 923,694 | 282,259 |
| GA-07 | Linder (R) | 630,511 | 874,059 | 243,548 |
| TX-10 | McCaul (R) | 651,523 | 889,342 | 237,819 |
| FL-05 | Brown-Waite (R) | 639,719 | 870,558 | 230,839 |
| CA-45 | Bono Mack (R) | 638,553 | 850,429 | 211,876 |
| TX-26 | Burgess (R) | 651,858 | 843,902 | 192,044 |
| NC-09 | Myrick (R) | 619,705 | 811,360 | 191,655 |
| TX-22 | Lampson (D) | 651,657 | 843,070 | 191,413 |
| FL-14 | Mack (R) | 639,298 | 827,747 | 188,449 |
| CA-44 | Calvert (R) | 639,008 | 821,102 | 182,094 |
| GA-06 | Price (R) | 630,613 | 808,518 | 177,905 |
| TX-03 | S. Johnson (R) | 651,782 | 828,598 | 176,816 |
| AZ-07 | Grijalva (D) | 640,996 | 797,355 | 156,359 |
| GA-03 | Westmoreland (R) | 630,052 | 777,210 | 147,158 |
| UT-03 | Cannon (R) | 744,545 | 891,668 | 147,123 |
| GA-09 | Deal (R) | 629,678 | 774,544 | 144,866 |
| ID-01 | Sali (R) | 648,922 | 791,628 | 142,706 |
| CO-06 | Tancredo (R) | 614,491 | 755,315 | 140,824 |
| FL-08 | Keller (R) | 639,026 | 778,960 | 139,934 |
| VA-10 | Wolf (R) | 643,714 | 780,534 | 136,820 |
| WA-08 | Reichert (R) | 655,029 | 790,781 | 135,752 |
| IL-14 | Foster (D) | 654,031 | 787,087 | 133,056 |
| FL-25 | M. Diaz-Balart (R) | 638,315 | 770,952 | 132,637 |
Much more over the flip…
Now here are the districts that have lost the most population between 2000 and 2007, and which will need to absorb the most surrounding territory (or be eliminated and dispersed into surrounding districts).
| District | Rep. | 2000 | 2007 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA-02 | Jefferson (D) | 639,048 | 385,399 | – 253,649 |
| PA-14 | Doyle (D) | 645,809 | 547,019 | – 98,790 |
| MI-13 | Kilpatrick (D) | 662,844 | 568,760 | – 94,084 |
| PA-02 | Fattah (D) | 647,350 | 556,246 | – 91,104 |
| OH-11 | vacant | 630,668 | 539,938 | – 90,730 |
| IL-07 | D. Davis (D) | 653,521 | 586,439 | – 67,082 |
| NY-28 | Slaughter (D) | 654,464 | 588,681 | – 65,783 |
| IL-04 | Gutierrez (D) | 653,654 | 589,874 | – 63,780 |
| MI-14 | Conyers (D) | 662,468 | 599,005 | – 63,463 |
| NY-27 | Higgins (D) | 654,200 | 598,044 | – 56,156 |
| IL-17 | Hare (D) | 653,531 | 598,742 | – 54,789 |
| CA-09 | Lee (D) | 639,426 | 584,787 | – 54,639 |
| KS-01 | Moran (R) | 672,051 | 617,449 | – 54,602 |
| AL-07 | A. Davis (D) | 635,631 | 581,269 | – 54,362 |
| MS-02 | B. Thompson (D) | 710,996 | 656,843 | – 54,153 |
| TN-09 | Cohen (D) | 631,740 | 577,995 | – 53,745 |
| PA-05 | Peterson (R) | 646,326 | 594,617 | – 51,709 |
| CA-53 | S. Davis (D) | 638,703 | 587,042 | – 51,661 |
| MN-05 | Ellison (D) | 614,874 | 565,407 | – 49,467 |
| OH-17 | Ryan (D) | 630,316 | 581,058 | – 49,258 |
| MA-08 | Capuano (D) | 635,185 | 587,438 | – 47,747 |
| OH-10 | Kucinich (D) | 631,003 | 585,892 | – 45,111 |
| MI-12 | Levin (D) | 662,559 | 617,539 | – 45,020 |
| PA-01 | Brady (D) | 645,422 | 600,957 | – 44,465 |
| MO-01 | Clay (D) | 621,497 | 577,240 | – 44,257 |
Note the high number of Republican districts on the growth list, and the high number of Democratic districts on the shrinkage list. The first list is 25 of the districts that are some of the most archetypal exurbs, and the second list is mostly the inner cities of the Rust Belt. Now, I could go all David Brooks on you, and make the case that this spells doom for the Democrats, because Democrats are either dying out or else moving to the exurbs as complete blank slates who get turned into Republicans when they eat the magic GOP fairy dust that they sprinkle over the salad bar at Applebee’s.
However, this needs to be viewed through the lens of the bluening of the people remaining in the cities, and, maybe more importantly, the bluening of the people in the inner ring suburbs. In fact, there’s probably something of a ripple effect going on: people moving from the city to the inner ring suburbs, bringing their city values with them, and people already in the inner city suburbs looking around them, not liking what they see anymore, and moving further out to the exurbs. (Which isn’t to say the suburbs-to-exurbs migration is consciously for racist or ideological reasons; it might be expressed purely in terms of wanting a bigger house with granite countertops, or having more elbow room separating them from neighbors. For whatever reasons, though, someone predisposed to valuing that, more so than an easier commute, a walkable neighborhood, or more interaction with neighbors, may also likelier to be predisposed to being a Republican.)
In addition, immigration plays a big factor. Traditionally, cities were the beachhead for wave after wave of immigrants in American history, but now many of them are making their first stop in the suburbs or even exurbs. As I said earlier, 2007 race data isn’t available yet, but when it is, you’ll see that much of the growth in the fastest growing districts (TX-10 and GA-07 especially come to mind) is non-white. (There’s also another consideration: migration from other states, and people bringing their northern values with them to the Sun Belt.)
Note that this is different from a list of purely the most and least populous districts. Here are the ten most populous districts:
| District | Rep. | 2000 | 2007 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV-03 | Porter (R) | 665,345 | 949,685 | 284,340 |
| AZ-06 | Flake (R) | 641,360 | 944,706 | 303,346 |
| MT-AL | Rehberg (R) | 902,195 | 933,264 | 31,069 |
| AZ-02 | Franks (R) | 641,435 | 923,694 | 282,259 |
| UT-03 | Cannon (R) | 744,545 | 891,668 | 147,123 |
| TX-10 | McCaul (R) | 651,523 | 889,342 | 237,819 |
| GA-07 | Linder (R) | 630,511 | 874,059 | 243,548 |
| FL-05 | Brown-Waite (R) | 639,719 | 870,558 | 230,839 |
| UT-02 | Matheson (D) | 744,287 | 857,741 | 113,454 |
| UT-01 | Bishop (R) | 744,377 | 852,082 | 107,705 |
And the ten least populous:
| District | Rep. | 2000 | 2007 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA-02 | Jefferson (D) | 639,048 | 385,399 | – 253,649 |
| RI-01 | Kennedy (D) | 524,189 | 506,472 | – 17,717 |
| WY-AL | Cubin (R) | 493,782 | 508,840 | + 15,058 |
| RI-02 | Langevin (D) | 524,130 | 512,250 | – 11,880 |
| NE-03 | A. Smith (R) | 570,532 | 537,076 | – 33,456 |
| OH-11 | vacant | 630,668 | 539,938 | – 90,730 |
| PA-14 | Doyle (D) | 645,809 | 547,019 | – 98,790 |
| IA-05 | King (R) | 585,171 | 548,055 | – 37,116 |
| PA-02 | Fattah (D) | 647,350 | 556,246 | – 91,104 |
| MN-05 | Ellison (D) | 614,874 | 565,407 | – 49,467 |
As you can see, these lists aren’t quite as interesting, because of some oddball picks where states started out the decade with either very large (Montana, Utah) or very small (Rhode Island, Iowa) districts, because their populations put them on the cusp of whether or not to get an extra seat. (Or in the case of Wyoming, because there are so few people there at all.) However, I suppose it might be interesting to start a betting pool as to when Rhode Island drops to one at-large seat (2020?).
…made me laugh out loud. Well done.
On another note, it seems unlikely that LA-02 will regain its population by 2010: a new study notes that New Orleans only grew 3% from 2007 to 2008, after growing 19% in the previous year.
Does anybody have any numbers for the VT-AL district? I’m just asking because it is my home state, and I’d be very interested to know the change in population between 2000 and 2007, whether it increased, decreased, or stayed stagnant, just like the districts listed here.
We’re going to gain a seat in 2010. Looking at these numbers, it appears likely it’ll be somewhere in the Northeast part of Metro Atlanta which is NOT good for us, at least for now. However, if you could lop the rural counties off from GA-07 and leave it as just Gwinnett County or even parts of it, then we’d be okay as Gwinnett gets more diverse racially and more Democratic…at some point.
… is that if the Democratic Party can consistently win 60% or more of the Hispanic vote, we’ll be the governing party of this country for the next half century.
According to the FL SoS website the 8th district had a new DECREASE of over 21,000 voters between 2006 and 2008. Weird that the number of registered voters took a big dive yet the population is rapidly increasing…
Fixed.
My back of the envelope calculations have Montana becoming larger than Rhode Ireland in population terms by around 2018 and global warming is likely to benefit Montana’s population growth but not Rhode Island’s.
I wouldn’t absolutely bet on it happening by 2020, but Rhode Island’s best case scenario is that it’s Utah-North Carolina close then and none of the larger states can claim priority on its second seat. And that seems unlikely.