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AK-AL: Parnell Up In His Own Internal

by: Crisitunity

Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 1:23 PM EDT


Basswood Research for Sean Parnell (8/5, likely voters):

Sean Parnell (R): 42
Don Young (R-inc): 38
Gabrielle LeDoux (R): 8
(MoE: ±5.7%)

Last week we saw a poll for the GOP primary in the Alaska House race from Ivan Moore that had Young up by a solid 8-point margin. The Parnell camp counters with its own internal poll showing him beating Young by 4 points. The sample was taken on Aug. 5, so this is post-Trooper-gate.

The poll doesn't appear to test the various configurations for the general election. The primary will be held Aug. 26.

In other somewhat-related grumpy-old-corrupt-guys-from-Alaska news, the feds are fighting Ted Stevens' attempts to change the venue of his trial from Washington DC to Alaska, claiming the unlikelihood of finding an impartial jury. This is important, because a) any delay makes it less likely the trial will be resolved before Election Day, and b) Stevens will be able to campaign in his off-hours if the trial is in Alaska, while he can't if he's stuck in DC.

Crisitunity :: AK-AL: Parnell Up In His Own Internal
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Parnell's own poll
shows this race to be well within the MoE and LeDoux will be spending a lot more before election day.

There is still hope for Don Young!


There sure is hope
Especially when you consider the large margin of error. We are talking about such a small number of voters here that this looks like a true tossup that will be decided by GOTV.

[ Parent ]
How overtly nasty has this gotten?
Does anyone know how nasty this has gotten?  I could see Young being a mean enough old crank to sit out the fall election (or even better -- actively subvert Parnell's campaign).  On the other hand, if Parnell loses, how much party unity is he going to show in supporting the crook Young?

*Sigh*
Another internal poll. I wouldn't take it at face value.

Why?
It's not like it's far off from Ivan Moore's numbers.

[ Parent ]
Inherent Distrust
I just inherently distrust a poll commissioned by a partisan organization (i.e. DSCC, NRSC) or from firms acting on behalf of any candidate (like this one for Sean Parnell).

About this one, I don't think it's really that close to Ivan Moore's numbers. Ivan Moore's numbers had Young in the 40% margin leading by 8 points against Parnell (46-38), yet these ones has Parnell leading in the 40% margin (42-38) by 4 points. The difference between them is that one had Young with 38% and the other had Parnell with 38%.

That doesn't seem accurate to me. It's like they're on the school playground arguing like kindergarten kids about who's got better numbers. Imagine:

"You only have 38%! Haha!" said Don Young.
"Uh uh, YOU only have 38%!" said Sean Parnell.

Just my thought on the subject...


[ Parent ]
There's this thing called the margin of error...
Parnell's poll has a very high MoE of 5.7%, Moore's poll, having fewer respondents, is even higher. So these numbers are both within the spread of a very large MoE.

I think this is a very difficult race to poll -- the primaries are a lot more relaxed in Alaska than they are in many other places, so personal choice will play a big part in which ticket (D or R) attracts more voters.

I used to share your attitude on internal polling, but not so much anymore. Sure, some releases seem questionable (and I HAVE seen a juked poll or two), but campaigns generally don't want to pay for junk.


[ Parent ]
I just do a little research
Some pollsters do very good internals, some do bad.  Anzalone-List is good example of a pollster than does good internals.  They did very well polling the special elections earlier this year.

[ Parent ]

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