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AK-AL: Young Leads Primary Field

by: Crisitunity

Sat Aug 09, 2008 at 12:40 AM EDT

Ivan Moore Research (7/18-22, likely voters):

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 52
Don Young (R-inc.): 37
Don Wright (I): 7

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 40
Sean Parnell (R): 43
Don Wright (I): 5

Lost in all the hubbub from a couple weeks ago when several polls showed Mark Begich opening up a huge lead on Ted Stevens (even before the Stevens indictment) was that, in the fine print, Ivan Moore also polled Alaska's House seat as well. Former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz leads corruption-scented incumbent Don Young by a sizable margin but barely loses to comparatively clean Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell.

The good news for Berkowitz: the primary matchups are also polled, and this shows Young with an edge over Parnell. The poll was taken just as Trooper-gate was breaking (in fact, that's one of the problems with polling over multiple days: Trooper-gate was significantly more broken on the 22nd than on the 18th), so it may show Parnell getting hit with some Palin blowback. He may be in an even worse position now, as he's taken a decidedly low-profile approach since the scandal surfaced. The primary is August 26.

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 54
Diane Benson (D): 25
Don Wright (D?): 5

Don Young (R-inc.): 46
Sean Parnell (R): 38
Gabrielle LeDoux (R): 6

Special thanks to Ivan Moore for sharing these numbers with the Swing State Project. The full results are available below the fold.

Crisitunity :: AK-AL: Young Leads Primary Field
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Oh God....
why couldn't the PRIMARY BE SOONER!!!!!!!

The power of one vote
So out of 504 respondents, 224 pick Obama and 235 pick McCain.  If you round those percentages you get 44% Obama, 47% McCain.  BUT if you shift just one vote from McCain to Obama, you'd round it as 45% Obama, 46% McCain.  Suddenly you go from a perceived 3-point advantage for McCain to a 1-point advantage, and since everyone rounds to percentages, that can change the storyline significantly.  

The power of one vote
That's why they have margins of error. If people paid attention to them more, they wouldn't be so quick to conclude much from small spreads in the data.

The problem isn't one vote; the problem is mathematical illiteracy.

[ Parent ]
LeDoux remains key
I've said it before, and still think it remains true: if LeDoux gets less than 10%, I can't see Young winning. If she gets more than 15%, I can't see Young losing.

It Is Kind Of Incredible
That the only thing that seems to have rebounded Don Young's numbers is another scandal, this time affecting his opponent. One corrupt asshole politician beating another corrupt (not as much asshole) politician.

Good to see Berkowitz doing fine. Benson may be the eventual loser, but she's a solid candidate with a good background who may come in handy in the future.

From these numbers overall, I may get my wish of seeing a Young-Berkowitz matchup in November.

Rasmussen MO-Gov - Nixon by 11
Well it's certainly better news than SUSA which only had Nixon up 4 points.  Rasmussen seems to be giving Dems consistently more favorable polls than SUSA this cycle.  I sure hope Rasmussen is right, but I have my doubts.

Niuxon (D)- 53
Hulshof (R)- 42

Surprising, but I'll be hopeful
I still don't believe Don Young is going to survive, but I'm hoping.  Maybe Parnell's lack of a campaign or any work will catch up to him now that his patron Palin is taking some hits.

Still, I would take this with a bit of salt since Ivan Moore is usually a Democratic pollster.  That being said, any data is good data.  

The Parnell-Berkowitz numbers are mostly consistent with the few past polls of that match-up.  It would be close, and that is a race where I think Obama would be very helpful.  

Let's go Don Young!

A very elderly survey
Largest of the 3 groups is over 60yo.  As always, they are the ones at home.   I'm assuming the good news:  they are the ones most likely to show up for a primary and vote for Young.  Also assuming the good news (part B): younger voters, with a Barack Obama push, could show up in the fall and vote straight Democratic.

Am I crazy?

Anyone else kinda expecting Obama to suddenly emerge in...
...Anchorage when his vacation is over?

At first

But I think he may wait until after the primaries so he can campaign there with the Senate and House candidates and with a clearer picture of the Alaska political scene.

[ Parent ]
Oh my God...
what is this newfangled contraption called Scribd?  It's like reading a .pdf file without having to open up Adobe in my browser and crashing it!  ¬°Que milagro!

Ya, I like it too
Never heard of it before but it's a really cool tool for blogs.

[ Parent ]
Web 2.0
It strikes again.

I like the linking features built into it.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]

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