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TX-Sen: Cornyn in a Tight Race?

by: James L.

Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:59 AM EDT


This seems too good to be true.  Rasmussen (5/1, likely voters):

Rick Noriega (D): 43
John Cornyn (R-inc): 47
(MoE: ±4%)

If this is anywhere near accurate, the results are shocking.  But if Noriega is to make a race of this, he'll have to get his fundraising machine in gear: his war chest is only 4% of Cornyn's $8.7 million on-hand.

(H/T: JLGarsh)
James L. :: TX-Sen: Cornyn in a Tight Race?
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TX-Sen: Cornyn in a Tight Race? | 23 comments
Watts
Mikal Watts $10M sure looks good right now.  Sigh.
Seriously doubt Watts would be within 10 points of Cornyn
I'll take Noriega and a much smaller amount of cash to spend over Watts and 10 Mill anyday.
[ Parent ]
I doubt we can win if we're going to get outspent
9 to 1.  Think about it.  
[ Parent ]
Stunning...
I figured at this point in the race Cornyn would be up by 15-20.  I know Cornyn is unpopular, but still.  Hopefully Noriega picks up his fundraising.

Same thing with the Presidential poll.  I'm not all that surprised Obama is close, but Hillary too?  

Success breeds success
I would think a lot of people are holding back or donating to other candidates out of fear that Noriega has too steep a climb.  But, good poll numbers like these ought to get some people off the fence.
[ Parent ]
absolutely
excellent post; thanks for making my point for me(you succinctly stated what i was trying to)
[ Parent ]
TX Senate race
I'd prefer to see another poll in addition to Rasmussen before I get too excited about this.  I'm not sure that I trust Ras to produce much in the way of an accurate result.  

What are the chances that DSCC would come in big here?  )It seems that on his own Noreiga has limited resources.)  They're got lots of bucks, and nearly every day I get a plea for yet another contribution.    

They would need to spend about $10 million here.
Which seems far too high a price for something that is far from a sure bet to me...

Noriega has to prove that he can raise the dough first.  The DSCC can't win Texas for him.

[ Parent ]
You are probably right...
The DSCC will sito n the sidelines and watch for a few more months to see if Noriega can raise enough to seriously compete here.  If he can and the polls are still showing him within 5 points I suspect they'll back him.
[ Parent ]
no but
they can make him competitive; my thoughts are they will help fund him as long their(DSCC) internal polls have cornyn vulnerable(plus they (DSCC) will expose noriega to their vast fundraising donor list); with obama at the top of the ticket, plus w.'s currrent unpopularity(even in texas),plus cornyn's own popularity issues(cornyn has NEVER been popular like hutchison)this race MAY become winnable; obviously noriega must improve his fundraising(my thoughts here are simple; once the obama/hillary fight is settled, folks like noriega will see more dollars coming their way); think about it, a hispanic senator? he will have the dollars to compete in the long run
[ Parent ]
DSCC Isn't looking to help candidates lose by less
They are looking for wins.  Period.  Losing by 1% is like losing by 20 points.  You don't get the seat, end of story.  
[ Parent ]
o.k.
what's your point? this race could come into play; obviously, some things will have to happen;BUT, this poll clearly shows that cornyn does NOT deserve a pass
[ Parent ]
Doesn't deserve a pass, but
That doesn't mean the DSCC should just dump money in here because of it.  
[ Parent ]
ONCE MORE
you need to READ WHAT I WROTE(get a grip); in other words, SHUT UP and read before you decide to bloviate; NO ONE here said ANYTHING about the dscc DUMPING money anywhere; i have been running southern democratic campaigns since BEFORE you were born; this is politics 101 junior; ANY incumbent polling BELOW %50 at any time is not good for said incumbent; listen up again junior, chuck schumer knows numbers better than you(or me or anyone else for that matter); this race is probably around #10 on the dscc hit list BUT these numbers give us(we are on the same team) a look(at this point in time) as to how things are now; as i said, this is one poll(among many); markos(kos) has commisioned another independent poll that will be released thursday which will give us more data to analyze; let's BOTH study that poll and then comment........
[ Parent ]
Salazar's hispanic

[ Parent ]
As is...
Menendez (D-NJ) and Martinez (R-FL).
[ Parent ]
i know that; i live in FLORIDA
NOT THE POINT; this year the hispanic turnout in TEXAS has huge potential; cornyn has NEVER been popular in TX(unlike kay bailey); this poll CLEARLY shows that giving cornyn a pass is a mistake(i trust the dscc; NO ONE counts any better than chuck schumer; IF, they see an opening here, i trust the dscc to exploit it)
[ Parent ]
interesting

Thing is, 43% or so is close to what standard national Democratic performance ought to be statewide in Texas this year.  That is approx. 1% per year national Democratic trend added to Kerry's 2004 performance of 38%, which was probably 1-3% low.
2004 Not a Good Barometer
I do not believe that 2004 is a good measure of where Texas stands on the red-to-blue scale.  Bush not only gets a home state bump, but a guy like Kerry from Massachusetts plays particularly poorly in Texas.  Add in the demographic changes over the last few years and this poll may still be a little surprising, but not shocking.
[ Parent ]
What we always knew
And Schumer even know.

A. Noreiga is a good candidate with a good profile
B. Cornyn is unpopular
C. Cornyn is beatable
D. Cornyn has a huge warchest
E. Noreiga has fundraising problems.

I still retain some hope that Noreiga will be able to raise 4 million by the end of the cycle and be helped out 2-4 million by the DSCC. Still, how could you be outraised by someone of the same party in a deep-red district 1/32th of your size? (Michael Skelly). Skelly really needs to give Noreiga some props and training and perhaps doner lists to the Noreiga campaign, and fast.

agreed on all counts
schumer knows the numbers better than anyone; cornyn will spend(with his party behind him) somewhere in the $22 million range; i think noriega would have to spend somewhere in the $9 million dollar range to be competitive;BUT, with obama AND noriega on the ticket together, turnout in november will be HUGE across the board for the democratic ticket(plus there is a resurgence taking place in the TDP that will help;AND there is currently a cvil war taking place in the TRP which will also help)
[ Parent ]
Cash:
Exactly how much cash on hand does Noriega have as of this month?
not sure
i would guess around 400-500k;BUT, if these numbers hold up; the money will start moving his way(keep in mind that the presidential race still holds the lower races hostage to a degree); in my opinion, if noriega can raise between $3-4 million(his track record, granted, has not given us alot of hope so far)on his own, the dscc(and dnc and various hispanic groups)can in-kind him around $4-5 million and then this race is competitive(still an underdog race); the more the polls(and thus the pundits begin to "talk" this race up, the more the BIG money folks pay attention to it; the better noriega's money grows); at this point, he needs a cash infusion, BUT the time is not past(yet) where cornyn should get a pass
[ Parent ]
TX-Sen: Cornyn in a Tight Race? | 23 comments

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