Use it or Lose it

Definitely a few use it or lose it candidates up there, Baucus, Kerry, and Durbin mainly.  I'd say Warner should donate some of that but he'll probably save it for a presidential run, assuming that is transferable.

I see no hope in Texas.

Sparks shouldve gotten into Alabama, regardless of the potential race issue.  I would hope that any black person in Alabama would look at Sparks and go, oh he is actually campaigning I'll support him even though the other candidate is black.

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by: Andrew @ Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:51:28 PM CDT

Two points

1. How do you wage a "Use it or lose it" Campaign?  We have a lot of people we need to do this with in both the US House and US Senate.  

2, Mark Warner can still send some to the DSCC now.  If he were to run for president, earliest would be 2016.  He isn't just going to slowly accumulate millions and millions of dollars.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:57:31 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Bloggers

The guys and gals in charge of all of the liberal progressive blogs decide to do it I guess and have everyone email these elected officials and just pressure the hell out of them.

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by: Andrew @ Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 15:59:41 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Michael Lange LOL

Several comments:

Tom Allen impresses.

Jim Risch does not.  Mike Johanns even underwhelms.

Andrew Rice impresses.

Rick Noreiga does not.  Merkley and Novick do not.

Roger Wicker has raised a shitton of money.  That sucks.

What in the hell was the VA GOP thinking?  Who on that side stood to gain by denying Davis the nomination?  I'm imagining that they tried to extort a concession of some kind from him, he refused to budge cause he actually didn't want to run that badly, and to maintain their future credibility, the rightwing of the VA GOP had to follow through on their threat or lose their power to extort in the future.  They completely ceded the race by going with Gilmore, and the internal politics that led to that choice must have been fascinating.  And probably vile too.

Similarly, I assume Vivian Figures wanted to be bribed out of the primary.  And Ron Sparks either didn't want to run that badly or in the end, didn't want to run at all.

And oh yeah.  Michael Lange LOL.

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by: texas dem @ Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 13:53:57 PM CDT

VA GOP

They might have been better served letting Davis take the nomination and absorb the ritual humiliation. That way, they could have kept the Fairfax Business Roundtable Republicrats beaten down in the future.

But they are more concerned with keeping control of the gubernatorial nomination coming next year than federal office.

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by: pinhickwv @ Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 15:20:06 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

A couple thoughts

Here are my first impressions:

- Mark Warner and the Udalls make me happy. If VA and NM look like blow-outs in October, I really, really hope that they'll be sharing. I'd love to pick up a couple of congressional districts in those states.

- Are Tom Allen and Al Franken spending? They've got reasonable cash-on-hand versus their incumbents, but the ME and MN races don't seem to have changed that much. If they're not spending much and they're trying to build up, that's fine. But eventually I want to see the strong fundraising translate into movement in the polls.

- I would have expected Jeanne Shaheen to have more at this point. I kind of put her in the Warner/Udall category, and she's got a lot of support. I'm kind of surprised that she's so far down on Sununu.

- Begich and Slattery impress me, considering how little time they've been in the race.

- Who is Steve Sauerberg, and how does he have that much against Durbin? That stood out to me.

- I haven't been following the Kentucky primary, though I'm under the impression that Fischer is the netroots "good guy." They've both got decent fundraising (though nothing on McConnell), but are they spending it bashing each other or McConnell? I just want to learn more about the dynamics of that race. I've got to pay more attention.

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by: Fitzy @ Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 14:16:36 PM CDT

well,

Shaheen just got in last November, and she's outraised Sununu both times. Give her some credit, she isn't running against an incompetent opponent in an open seat race, she's running against an incumbent who had almost two and a half million dollars already in the bank when she got started. She's only been in about four months, and she's raised over two million dollars, and set the groundwork for her campaign.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 15:51:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

A nit-pick.

Shouldn't Tom Udall be #2, instead of #2 and #3 ?

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by: blueokie08 @ Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 14:20:22 PM CDT

Need to get the Presidential race over, don't we?

Great work putting it together, James. And alarming.

Looking at the ratios, we are not well positioned to capitalize in the Senate races if the tide breaks our way.

NH looked like a likely pick-up bit Shaheen's personal approvals have dropped and her opponent has a nice edge in cash. She is doing respectably but I expected near-parity in this one. In one we can easily lose, Landrieu's edge is not overwhelming. Most distressing is Gordon Smith's massive edge. He should be easy pickings. Also, we could take down Stevens if everything breaks right. Alaska voters are quirky. They have had their share of scandals to alienate them from Stevens. And there is the rift within the state GOP to exploit.

Well, at least TIm Johnson looks in good shape financially. the health question is a problem and he should have lost last time. And the Udalls are a gift from the gods. Not only can they win their races and help the national ticket but the 3 GOP House members running against them created good shots at House flips.

But, with the Obama-Clinton brawl sucking all the oxygen out of the room, the pie is sliced pretty thin when the Senate challengers get their taste. We have to settle the nomination so donors will turn their eyes to other races.

Looking at the lack of CoH, I think Obama should stay in the public funding system in the fall. Donors have limited funds and imagine how much downticket money will be diverted to the top of the ticket. It would be nice to take advantage of Johnny Mac's problems with his own base but I think we would end up hurting our performance downticket.

Isn't it odd the GOP is not cranking up for Gilmore? Even if they can't hold the seat, you'd think they'd invest just to prevent Warner from hurting McCain's position in the state.

I'd feel better about taking down Collins in Maine but she will endorse Obama, change parties, and wax the cars of the entire state if she has to.

Franken worries me. I have concern about his appeal to the DFL folks who ran off to vote for Ventura. Coleman has talent. And, if Johnny Mac taps Pawlenty for veep, we could be headed for disaster in Minnesota.

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by: pinhickwv @ Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 15:13:41 PM CDT

Landrieu has a huge edge

plus higher approvals, better constituient services, and more incumbency. She just got endorsed by the Chamber of Commerce too, which should help her with business Democrats and business Republicans that have voted against her in the past.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 15:58:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

hope you're right

but she has had some close calls in the past and, post-Katrina, a lot of the constituents she served are living in other states. Jindal's margin in the gubernatorial is an indicator the demographic shift in LA is real.  

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by: pinhickwv @ Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 11:52:10 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

it's not really

it's the symbol of every person and media agency giving the election to Jindall months before he even got in the race, from then on it was all about how Jindall can't lose, and how brilliant Jindall is, and how Jindall wiped his ass today and how brilliant a governor he'll be because he was intelligent. He was given more political capitol before he was ever governor than any man in the past thirty years, since edwin edwards in 1973. The news media completely shirked it's duty and responsibility to report on the race and on Jindall's faults, while plenty attacking the Democrats. Jindall won the normally Democratic South Louisiana areas by large margins, even areas mostly unaffected by Katrina, he won the swingy area of Baton Rouge hugely, and Democrats didn't really have a strong, united candidate. Plus, oyu know, Bush and Rove sabotauged the LA-DP with hitting Blanco over hte head with his mistakes, making her wildly unpopular. Jindall indicates nothing.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 22:04:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

So what republican idiot thought it was a good idea...

to push out the more moderate and much better fundraiser/campaigner Davis in favor of Gilmore?  Seriously... it Gilmore even trying to raise any money to win?  Davis could have at least made it a marginally competitive race.  Once Warner really starts spending this thing could be a 20 point landslide.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 18:24:07 PM CDT

immigration

Davis was cooked after the immigration fight last summer. It cost him any chance at grabbing the nomination in a convention and exposed against a former governor in a primary.

But you raise a good point. Why is a former governor and RNC honcho raising so little money? I have no clue.

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by: pinhickwv @ Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 11:57:44 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

2106%

In Virginia, just makes you laugh a little inside. lol

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by: Venslor @ Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 19:14:45 PM CDT

OR Notes

A couple of things on OR-SEN:

1) Having two candidates raising dilutes the raising power of both. That said, the two of them have combined for over 2.25 million dollars raised for the primary, which ain't too bad.

2) Novick's CoH is AFTER his big ad buy; Merkley's is BEFORE.

3) After the primary, you'll see some rallying behind Novick...I mean, the nominee. :)

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by: torridjoe @ Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 20:39:07 PM CDT