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Sunday, June 18, 2006

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by DavidNYC


After a slow week here at the SSP, the weekly open thread comes early. Here's a quick update, courtesy of Green Papers, of the next batch of elections due up this summer:

Tuesday 27 June 2006
• Mississippi - Primary Runoff for Dem. Senate and Dem. CD 1
• South Carolina - Runoff for Lt. Gov (R), Treasurer (R), CD 1 (D)
• Utah - Primary

Tuesday 18 July 2006
• Georgia - Primary
• Alabama - Runoff (revised date) for Rep. Lt. Gov. and Rep. Auditor

Tuesday 25 July 2006
• Oklahoma - Primary

Tuesday 1 August 2006
• Kansas - Primary

Thursday 3 August 2006
• Tennessee - Primary

Tuesday 8 August 2006
• Colorado - Primary
• Connecticut - Primary
• Georgia - Runoff
• Michigan - Primary
• Missouri - Primary

Obviously, Aug. 8th is the big day, what with CT-Sen and all. Anything interesting prior to then?

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I'm interested in the polling Rasmussen Reports is doing on Presidential Matchups in individual states. Unfortunately it's for Premium Members only, so if anyone could somehow relay that info it would be nice. What I'm really interested in is 2008, since there are no important primaries coming up until August. I'm putting my support behind Mark Warner, but has anyone heard much from Al Gore? There were statisics put out saying that Al Gore would have the highest chance of beating any of the Republican frontrunners (e.g. John McCain, George Allen). The polling at Polling Report doesn't seem to be showing good signs for Gore, but it doesn't necessarily mean he's out of the running yet. He could use the revenues from his movie, The Inconvenient Truth, to help him in the 2008 primaries.

Posted by: Craig [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 16, 2006 09:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm interested in FL-15 with Fighting Dem. Bob Bowman running agenst Republican Incumbent Dave Weldon. Dave Weldon has broken term-limit pledges is one of the most conservative voices in the House and has been caught in dealings with Jack Abramoff. This is guy has been overlooked but we should look at this race we have a strong chance here and a great candidate. check him out: http://bowman2006.com/

Posted by: D in FL. [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 16, 2006 09:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

TN-9's Democratic primary. Of course, by then, the blogs will be rife with predictions/speculation over the Lamont/Lieberman race (unless Lieberman outright pulls out of the primary) to the exclusion of just about anything else.

But the TN-9 primary's going to be interesting. The Memphis-based district is going to vote for the Democratic nominee in the general, but which one of the 19 Democratic candidates will it be?

Posted by: DemocraticLuntz [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 16, 2006 09:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

As I sit here eating grapes, I also wonder, what is happening with State races (e.g. State Senate and State Assembly/House)? These races are obviously important because if we can gain control of both chambers of a states legislative branch, then we will have complete control over Congressional Re-districting. If the grassroots could fund these races, then we could have a great chance of re-districting a lot of Congressional Districts in our favor. States like Iowa where the Democrats are tied in the State Senate (25 Democrat-25 Republican) and narrowly losing in the house (49 Democrat-51 Republican). Other states include Indiana where the Democrats are getting destroyed in the State Senate (17 Democrat-33 Republican) but narrowly losing in the State House (48 Democrats-52 Republicans). Minnesota is also very important where the Democrats are winning in the State Senate (35 Democrats-31 Republicans) but barely losing in the State House (66 Democrats-68 Republicans). In Montana (where Democrats are expected to win big this year) the Democrats control the State Senate (27 Democrats-23 Republicans) but are tied in the State House (50 Democrats-50 Republicans). Surprisingly Democrats control the both the State Senate and State House in a lot of the Southern States (Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, and West Virginia) These races are very important, especially after the 2010 Census when re-districting will occur. Other states Democrats could to win in are:

Alaska (State Senate: 8 Democrats-12 Republicans)
(State House: 14 Democrats-26 Republicans)

Arizona (State Senate: 12 Democrats-18 Repub.)
(State House: 22 Democrats-38 Repub.)

Kentucky (State Senate: 15 Democrats-22 Repub.)
(State House: 57 Democrats-43 Repub.)

Michigan (State Senate: 16 Democrats-22 Repub.)
(State House: 52 Democrats-58 Repub.)

Nevada (State Senate: 9 Democrats-12 Repub.)
(State Assembly: 26 Democrats-16 Repub.)

New York (State Senate: 27 Democrats-35 Repub.)
(State Assembly: 104 Democrats-45 Rep.- 1 Vacant)

Oklahoma (State Senate: 26 Democrats-22 Repub.)
(State House: 44 Democrats- 57 Repub.)

Oregon (State Senate: 18 Democrats-12 Repub.)
(State House: 27 Democrats-33 Repub.)

South Carolina: (State Senate: 20 Dem.-26 Repub.)
(State House: 49 Dem-73 Repub.- 2 Vacancies)

Tennessee: (State Senate: 16 Dem-17 Repub.)
(State House: 53 Dem-46 Repub.)

Texas: (State Senate: 12 Dem-19 Repub.)
(State House: 61 Dem-88 Repub.)

Wisconsin (State Senate: 14 Dem-19 Repub.)
(State Assembly: 39 Dem-60 Repub.)

Posted by: Craig [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 16, 2006 09:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

VA-Sen - Some new numbers are out by Rasmussen and rumor has it that the current numbers are 51 Allen 41 Webb 8 undecided. At this same time last year Kaine was down by the same margin and came back to win by almost 6 points. People in VA know Allen very well but very few know Webb at all yet he can come within 10 points and Allen is barely over 50% as an incumbent. We can win this one but we will need a lot of help. Allen has a ton of money and in order for Webb to compete he will need all of our help.

Posted by: UVA08 [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 16, 2006 10:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Oh also WA-08 with the whole Bush planned trip he must be so popular now that his approvals are so much higher than they where in 2004. I mean back than he lost WA-08 51-48 of course now that he in such strong position.... lol can't keep a striaght face it will only help Darcy in any case helping her out would be big because all the money they raise will all go to try to discredit Burner. And one last thing the first poll (after the primary) on the VA-Sen came out and had it 51-41 Allen this is a race.

Posted by: D in FL. [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 16, 2006 10:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

More good news re: VA. In the aftermath of Webb's win, VA-02 has been moved up National Journal's "Vulnerable List" from 30th place to 17th! This has been on my focus from the start and I believe will be one of the surprise upsets of '06. Great work Va Dems & Jim Webb, I'd like to see my old CD in Kellam's hands. I'm surprised to see that Eric Massa NY-29 is not on the list. He is conducting a great campaign and NY is ripe this year.

National Journal (Chuck Todd)
"Iowa-01 Is Now The Most Vulnerable
Last Updated: June 14, 2006
We have a new No. 1 race this month, but don't get too excited; even though some races have shuffled positions, the overall top 10 remains the same.

The volatile portion of our rankings continue to be in the 15-30 area, where new races pop into the top 20, while a few others have dropped quite a bit. Our analysis bias this month is on immigration – if we think it’s going to be a big issue in a particular district, then we tend to give the GOP a slight edge. Another trend to watch is panicked incumbents. Two of our biggest movers are races in which the incumbents are showing public signs of nervousness.

As with the rankings last month, these rankings are a collaboration between myself and House Race Hotline editor Josh Kraushaar. Thoughts, complaints, additions, subtractions? E-mail us: ctodd@nationaljournal.com and jkraushaar@nationaljournal.com.

1. IOWA-01 (Open-R) Jim Nussle is running for governor Last Ranking: 2
Braley vs. Whalen. Both party primaries were base love-fests, and as both nominees attempt to court the middle, we have to give the edge to the Democrats. This district broke for Kerry in ’04, and as long as Iraq -- and not immigration -- remains the top issue in the fall, Democrats should be in good shape.

2. COLORADO-07 (Open-R) Bob Beauprez is running for governor Last Ranking: 1
While we still believe this is one of the most vulnerable GOP seats in the country, the contentious primary between Lamm and Perlmutter has to be making O’Donnell and the Republican Party smile. Perlmutter’s got the money and organization, but Lamm’s famous last name seems to be helping her. This is an interesting intraparty fight between labor and EMILY’s List, which recently teamed up to save the Democrats’ hide in Ohio-13.
3. OHIO-18 (Ney-R) Last Ranking: 3
We have a hard time taking the pulse of this district. That said, Ney appeared thin-skinned with his recent Blackberry remarks to a Copley News reporter. Clearly, the bad press is getting to him, and that’s never a good sign for a targeted incumbent. Zack Space doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence among some key Democrats, but if this campaign ever becomes about Space, then the opportunity will already be lost.

4. PENNSYLVANIA-06 (Gerlach-R) Last Ranking: 4
There’s been very little news to change our opinion of Gerlach vs. Murphy. If anything, we’re probably a tad more pessimistic for the Republican Party, particularly as the entire statewide GOP ticket continues to show weakness.

5. FLORIDA-22 (Shaw-R) Last Ranking: 6
The White House is pulling out all the stops for Shaw. Both Bush and Rove have helped Shaw raise money because Klein is turning into one of the Democrats’ best national fundraisers.

6. CONNECTICUT-02 (Simmons-R) Last Ranking: 7
Simmons vs. Courtney. The Republican continues to bask in the glory of his role in saving the Groton Naval Base. But in the face of such a negative national landscape, Simmons has a lot of work to do to localize this race. Courtney, meanwhile, is showing signs of being a much improved candidate from '02.

7. NEW MEXICO-01 (Wilson-R) Last Ranking: 8
Madrid is taking advantage of her law enforcement credentials to come across as "anti-corruption." Meanwhile, Wilson continues to try and distance herself from Bush. Also of note: Immigration has been surprisingly quiet as an issue in this southwest district. Tip Sheet

8. INDIANA-09 (Sodrel-R) Last Ranking: 9
Indiana is one of the surprising trouble spots for Republicans. Not only are Bush’s ratings tepid at best, but GOP Gov. Mitch Daniels is also pulling down Republicans. Everything seems to be lining up well for Hill -- and not so well for Sodrel. Tip Sheet

9. ARIZONA-08 (Open-R) Jim Kolbe is retiring Last Ranking: 5
This race is dropping because the GOP was so successful in using immigration as a get-out-the-vote wedge in the Calif.-50 special. Democrats still don't have enough credibility on the issue among anti-immigrant voters. That said, Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano has been very tough on the issue, and she could provide the eventual Dem nominee some cover. Tip Sheet

10. IOWA-03 (Boswell-D) Last Ranking: 10
Lamberti continues to get the star treatment. He was in New York City recently as a featured guest for Rudy Giuliani’s first major PAC fundraiser of the year. Democrats won’t admit it on the record, but Boswell is clearly their most vulnerable incumbent.

11. KENTUCKY-04 (Davis-R) Last Ranking: 12
For Davis, there's just no good to come from the trials and tribulations of former congressman and current GOP Gov. Ernie Fletcher. The atmosphere in this state, mixed with the corruption problems in Ohio, means this northern Kentucky/Cincy-area district doesn’t see a lot of clean government examples. And that’s usually a bad environment for an incumbent. Tip Sheet

12. INDIANA-08 (Hostettler-R) Last Ranking: 13
See our write-up for Ind.-09; same Bush-Daniels baggage, different district. Also of note: Hostettler is asking for debates. When incumbents are first out of the debate box, it’s never a good sign.

13. CONNECTICUT-04 (Shays-R) Last Ranking: 15
Shays always seems to find middle ground where few voters believe there is any. He’s still pro-Iraq, but he’s trying to become more pro-accountability. It’s a stance to seek out, but this is an odd district. On paper, Shays should be a dead man walking, but he’s not.

14. NORTH CAROLINA-11 (Taylor-R) Last Ranking: 16
No news this month is probably good news for Shuler. That said, if ethics starts to die down as a national issue, then Taylor could find some room to recover. We should start seeing one of the two parties attempt to define Shuler early, particularly since Taylor’s M.O. is to throw in money late.

15. OHIO-15 (Pryce-R) Last Ranking: 19
How much does DeLay’s departure help Pryce? Kilroy regularly chastised Pryce for her close ties to the former congressman. How the Democrats pivot from Republican leadership issues to actual voter issues will tell us a lot about their chances in this district.

16. PENNSYLVANIA-07 (Weldon-R) Last Ranking: 28
Weldon continues to show rust, while Sestak gains momentum. This race has moved from the second tier to the first tier for both parties. Weldon can’t afford a weak statewide GOP showing, and right now, the jury’s still out on both Santorum and Swann.

17. VIRGINIA-02 (Drake-R) Last Ranking: 30
Following our "incumbents asking for debates" rule, we decided to move this race into the top 25 after Drake did just that -- challenge Kellam to debates. It’s not clear if this district is in play because of something Drake did or because of the state’s (and the district’s) changing demographics.

18. MINNESOTA-06 (Open-R) Mark Kennedy is running for Senate Last Ranking: 20
Both Bachmann and Wetterling have been doing nothing but raising funds. Cheney’s coming for Bachmann, and Wetterling has EMILY’s List working full-time. Both candidates won their nominations by appealing to the base, which may give Bachmann a small advantage since this is a 55 percent-plus Bush district.

19. GEORGIA-08 (Marshall-D) Last Ranking: 17
Democrats are growing far more confident about their chances to hold both this district and the Barrow seat (Ga.-12). We continue to be cautious on ranking Ga.-08 (which was previously Ga.-03) because of the re-redistricting. On paper, Barrow should be a bit safer than Marshall. But, frankly, neither Collins nor Burns are campaign dynamos which gives the GOP some pause. The stronger the statewide GOP ticket is, the better the party’s chances are at winning at least one.

20. GEORGIA-12 (Barrow-D) Last Ranking: 18 see above Georgia 08

21. WISCONSIN-08 (Open-R) Mark Green is running for governor Last Ranking: 21
There are not a lot of great scenarios for the Democrats when it comes to this crowded and expensive primary. Republicans are already united behind their nominee and, frankly, there is one candidate in the Democratic race who some folks believe is completely unelectable (no, we're not saying who yet). Tip Sheet

22. ILLINOIS-06 (Open-R) Henry Hyde is retiring Last Ranking: 27
The national party loves Duckworth, plain and simple. Because of that, this race gets back into our top 25. It seems Rahm and company are going to will her to victory (or at least to 48 percent), and any district that a candidate can get 48 percent belongs in the top 25.
23. OHIO-06 (Open-D) Ted Strickland is running for governor Last Ranking: 11
We were tempted to drop this race out of our top 25 because Democrats are very confident that Republicans used all of their bullets on Wilson during the primary. Toss in the fact that Wilson can fund himself, and you get the picture. Still there are very few actual Democratic targets on the NRCC dart board, so Blasdel continues to get some love.
24. NEW YORK-24 (Open-R) Sherwood Boehlert is retiring Last Ranking: 14
Republicans got a gift when the conservative candidate, Brad Jones, dropped out and endorsed Ray Meier. Now, it’s mano-a-mano between Meier and Arcuri. This could still be a top Democratic target, but Republicans feel a lot better today than they did when Boehlert first announced his retirement.

25. TEXAS-22 (Open-R) Tom DeLay is resigning Last Ranking: 23
Democrats are doing everything they can to give the eventual GOP nominee time to raise money. This latest gambit to keep DeLay’s name on the ballot is yet another boost for Lampson. This is still a tough district, but as long as the GOP storyline is process, Lampson has a fighting chance.

Okay, now it's on to the "mid-major" contests. See any districts that should have made the list? Let us know.

26. NEW YORK-20 (Sweeney-R) Last Ranking: 24
27. WEST VIRGINIA-01 (Mollohan-D) Last Ranking: 26
28. ILLINOIS-08 (Bean-D) Last Ranking: 22
29. PENNSYLVANIA-08 (Fitzpatrick-R) Last Ranking: 29
30. WASHINGTON-08 (Reichert-R) Last Ranking: 31
31. SOUTH CAROLINA-05 (Spratt-D) Last Ranking: 32
32. ARIZONA-05 (Hayworth-R) Last Ranking: 33
33. PENNSYLVANIA-10 (Sherwood-R) Last Ranking: 46
34. TEXAS-17 (Edwards-D) Last Ranking: 35
35. LOUISIANA-03 (Melancon-D) Last Ranking: 36
36. CONNECTICUT-O5 (Johnson-R) Last Ranking: 37
37. OHIO-O1 (Chabot-R) Last Ranking: 38
38. COLORADO-04 (Musgrave-R) Last Ranking: 39
39. FLORIDA-16 (Foley-R) Last Ranking: 40

40. NEVADA-02 (Open-R) Jim Gibbons is running for governor. Last Ranking: 41
41. VERMONT-AL (Open-I) Bernard Sanders is running for Senate Last Ranking: 42
42. FLORIDA-13 (Open-R) Katherine Harris is running for Senate. Last Ranking: 43
43. CALIFORNIA-11 (Pombo-R) Last Ranking: 34

44. INDIANA-02 (Chocola-R) Last Ranking: 47
45. NEW YORK-25 (Walsh-R) Last Ranking: 48
46. NEW HAMPSHIRE-01 (Bradley-R) Last Ranking: 50
47. NORTH CAROLINA-08 (Hayes-R) Last Ranking: --
48. NEW JERSEY-07 (Ferguson-R) Last Ranking: --
49. NEW HAMPSHIRE-02 (Bass-R) Last Ranking: --
50. NEVADA-03 (Porter-R) Last Ranking: --

Dropped from the rankings: Illinois-17, Kentucky-03, New York-19 and California-50

Races on the fringe: Pennsylvania-04, Nevada-03, Minnesota-01, Florida-08 and Florida-09"

Posted by: Predictor [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 16, 2006 10:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Sorry if that was too long, but thought it was worthy.
And yes, I almost wet myself with glee when I heard the Crawford Village Idiot went to WA-08. He also went to VA-02 a few weeks ago and Drake literally hightailed it to DC while donors gobbled with Bush and without her (do elephants gobble?).

Posted by: Predictor [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 16, 2006 11:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well, I'm looking forward to hearing the quarter's fundraising totals (which, of course, we should all be working to raise as much as possible now). That should give some new thoughts about what's going on...

Posted by: MissLaura [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 17, 2006 02:15 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well, I'm tired of seeing this site post nothing on some of the major races. I know you haven't really been posting much of anything right now, but here are some racecs you need to get back to covering.
Weldon Vs. Sestak:
It would appear that since this race has become 'nationalized' netroots coverage has kind of left it. Why wasn't anything posted here about Weldon's nuttiest move so far, he recently claimed that there was a good possibility that there weapons of mass destruction still hidden in Iraq. It may sound crazy, but remember, this guy is a whack job, google it.

Klein Vs. Shaw:
Please provide coverage, some big, big is about to happen. The extremely intelligent and independant Klein is about to do something most Democrats already in house have not really done, he's about to unveil his own comprehensive plan for fixing social security, and reorganizing medicare. Don't be fooled, this is massive, and when Democrats finally unveil their own 'Contract with America' this will likely be part of it. Klein is possibly the most intelligent person running for a House seat at this moment, and he's also very attuned to the needs and issues of senior citzens. His proposal, depending on how good it is, will be used by Murphy against Johnson in CT, and Madrid against Wilson in NM. This is a crucial moment in this election year. Shaw has shown himself to out of touch with Senior Citzens, which is not good in a district where almost 40% of it's population are over 55. Keep an eye on this. Plus, everyone needs to vote for Klein in asny sort of fundraising thing possible, Bush just raisedc 800,000 thousand dollars for Shaw a few weeks ago, and Klein needs every last once of our help to keep up. That's pretty much all I'm thinking about right now. I wwould like to know your thoughts DavidNYC.

Posted by: ArkDem [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 17, 2006 01:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment


there's the link.

Posted by: ArkDem [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 17, 2006 02:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Please look at NJ-07, incumbent Republican Mike Ferguson and challenger Assemblywoman Linda Stender. Linda is on Emily's List already and I believe the Cook Report is following the campaign. This is one of those suburban districts that should be getting more Democratic.

Posted by: Karen4 [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 17, 2006 04:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm interested in the Al Weed (VA-05) campaign. One reason is because I'm working for the campaign, but I was a volunteer for 6 months before I was on payroll, and I volunteered because Al inspired me, pure and simple.

In broader terms, I'm interested in this race because the VA-05 is a microcosm of what's wrong with the direction of this country: the corrupt incumbent, the high military recruitment rate, the hollowing out of rural America, the need for alternative energy and the agricultural industry that would spring back to life if presented with a new crop (switchgrass). The independent backlash will be strong here, as Virgil was originally elected as a Democrat, and his continued 65% support indicates a strong independent presence here. Al's a part of the Band of Brothers movement, as is Jim Webb -- who, by the way, will be a huge improvement over John Kerry in terms of who's at the top of the ticket.

The electorate is sick of partisan social-issues cudgel, after Bush in '04, Kilgore in '05, and now an '06 election in which Virgil has nothing to hide behind but homophobia and fear of brown people. This election will test the Democrats in a unique way, and serve as a harbinger for the coming changes in American Politics. The GOP will fight tooth and nail to hang on, despite its incompetence and corruption, with fear and hate, and we'll be fighting for the good of the people. May the best man win.

Posted by: msnook [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 18, 2006 11:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Take a look at the PA-09th

At the latest Pennsylvania State Democratic committee meeting, this past weekend, delegates from all parts of the Keystone State had one name on their lips; Tony Barr. The Write-in miracle of the May 16th primary has gone from the grassroots to the Mountain tops. The energetic challenger to the Shuster PA-9th would-be dynasty shook every hand possible during the latest State party meeting and was among the last to exit the building. Tony Barr was also well-received at all of the caucus meetings that the Republican Gerrymandering of PA Congressional districts required him to attend.

The write-in campaign that began in a kitchen in Claysburg, is rapidly attracting legions of eager volunteers. GOP inter-party chaos and voter disillusionment with the failures of the Bush administration make Tony Barr a very attractive alternative. Those out of town cynics and beltway pundits who think that it will take a tsunami to unseat a Republican in the PA-09th would do well to locate their hip-waders and camcorders and start looking for higher ground. It’s getting mighty moist in the PA-09th CD.

Learn more about the Tony Barr campaign at tonybarr2006.com

Posted by: DvilleDem [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 19, 2006 02:24 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Larry Kissell. There is more excitement about this race in North Carolina than almost anything else....politically. I mean, when it comes to excitement, it's kind of hard to compete with a hockey team playing for the Stanley Cup and a college baseball team playing in the College World Series. Go Heels!

Posted by: southerndem [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 19, 2006 07:33 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Cannon's primary out in Utah will have great significance for how politicians' perceive the currents on immigration, particularly within the GOP.

See, e.g., http://www.opinionjournal.com/diary/?id=110008446

Posted by: Jeff Hauser [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 19, 2006 07:49 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

These next few Summer Tuesdays don't pose too many hot races for me either. I'll be watching to see what the GOP voters do in the Georgia Lt-Governor's race - it would be wonderful to see the last of Ralph Reed, and a loss there would be a black eye for Giuliani also, since he did a fund-raiser for the aging boy wonder of the extreme right wing.

On August 8 I'll be watching at least one Michigan race with keen interest. The Club for Growth is targeting incumbent GOP congressman Joe Schwarz from the right. If their candidate prevails, it becomes an open seat. I haven't managed to learn much about the 3 Democrats running for the nomination in CD-07. (Two of them have crappy websites, that's really all I know.) I hope the Democratic voters there choose wisely.

In TN-09, it's a crowded field. Emily's List is behind Tinker but I haven't read much about the other candidates. I'm also still hoping to hear recommendations about Democrats running for the Tennessee State Senate. A flip of a single seat would give us control of both houses in that state legislature.

Posted by: Christopher Walker [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 19, 2006 12:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Of course, I am watching the Talent(less Hack) – McCaskill senatorial matchup in Missouri. Or course the Kansas Gubernatorial race has my interest – for one thing, I know Kathleen Sebelius, not well enough to call her a close friend, but well enough that she knows me when she sees me, calls me by name, and we chat about things other than the weather, like Kansas City’s music scene. She’s a huge Jazz and Blues fan, attending many, many live shows in Kansas City. I know her from my 2-year stint at a “fun job” working for the two-time Handy-award winning world-famous Grand Emporium, back when it was cool, before it sold and became just another nightclub. Kathleen recruited a Republican to change parties and run with her for reelection in November.

I am watching the Missouri 6th, held by that weasel Sam Graves. I own some land up there – if a decent Dem emerges, I’m voting in Mercer County and will spend a lot of time in that district this fall. He’s a punk and he needs to go. Where I am currently registered, in the Missouri 5th, The Reverend Emmanuel Cleaver is sitting in a safe seat, so this year he doesn’t need that much help from me, hence I am turning attention to the sixth.

Of course I am devouring every word in the local press about the Kansas Attorney Generals Race. Johnson County Prosecutor Paul Morrison grew so disenchanted with the AG from his own party (the R’s) that he switched to the Democratic party to run against Phill (KK)Kline, whose all-abortion, all the time schtick is getting old. People are starting to think his obsession with the sex life of teenage girls constitutes more a pathology than a thirst for justice.

But one race has me really excited! The Kansas State School Board is going to get bitch-slapped after making a laughing stock of the state by de-emphasizing evolution (it’s only a theory! Is their battle cry, but they know not what exactly constitutes a scientific theory.) The state board has five open seats coming up for election, four are held by the social conservatives who started this mess. Sixteen candidates have filed for the right to contest the bible-thumpers. It’s going to get raucous, it’s going to get volatile, and it’s going to get ugly. And I am going to wade right into the middle of it, because my children have high-school diplomas from a private school in Kansas. I take this one personally.

We have been down this road before, in the late 90’s – the state board de-emphasized science and tried to add creationism. The board was turned out and a new board returned the standards to the way they had been. The rationalist were unseated by the current crop of chisto-fascist conservatives who embraced “Intelligent Design” and de-emphasized real science, and for good measure eliminated sex ed, except for abstinence only education.

Kansans have too much common sense to return these weasles. I lived among Kansans for two tours of duty and next door to them since 1998. They will turn this board out in short order, election day can’t get here fast enough.

Posted by: Global Citizen [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 19, 2006 02:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Virginia 02 Drake-R vs. Kellam-D
Drake agrees to debates. Drake utters that she agrees more with Bush than her own family members. The DCCC turns it into a commercial. On the DCCC main web page:

Drake will rue the day that she agreed to go face to face with Kellam, she can't even come close to his savvy.

Posted by: Predictor [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 22, 2006 05:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

June Zogby Virginia Senate:

Allen 48.8%
Webb 43.5%
(Within the MOE)

Posted by: Predictor [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 22, 2006 07:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment