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Saturday, April 08, 2006

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by DavidNYC

I've got Busby, Busby on my mind. And you?

UPDATE: MoveOn is organizing virtual phonebanking for Busby. This is always an excellent, fun way for out-of-district folks to get involved. MoveOn figures it should only take an hour to make 15 calls (which is all they're asking for). Click here to participate.

UPDATE: Another update, this time from Brandon Hall, Busby's campaign manager, in an e-mail:

Overwhelming turnout today. The district is buzzing with Busby supporters.

We've already had over 300 volunteers show up for door knocking and phone banking. That's almost 100 more volunteers than had signed up. We're rushing to print more doorhangers, because at this rate we'll run out on Monday - which means we'll have dropped 52,000 doorhangers by then.

Posted at 01:58 PM in Open Threads | Technorati

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Comments

I see Busby coming close to 50% and maybe going over. The district she is in, is just to conservative and that really worries me. The Republican party is scared of her, however, and that looks good on our part. She really needs to get volunteers now for a full-scale election preparation. If she doesn't get the necessary support now it'll go into a run-off. If the election goes into a run-off Busby will lose.

Other races I'm interested in are Sherrod Brown in the Ohio Senate and the fate of Ted Strickland's old Congressional seat. With Sherrod Brown zooming back into the race, and being only three points behind, this is a race I definitely want to here more about.

Claire McCaskill's race against Jim Talent looks like it's going to be close. I'd also like to here more about Conrad Burns in Montana. If he drops out we won't be able to win that seat. Montana may be trending blue, but it's still a Republican stronghold.

I haven't heard much about a Democrat in OH-02. I live inside the district, in Clermont County and from what I see there's going to be a close primary against Jean Schmidt. There are Bob McEwen signs everywhere and very few Schmidt ones. I've heard about Thor Jacobs running for the Democrats and I support him above the others. He seems like a strong candidate and looks like he has the support of Paul Hackett. If the Republican primary gets hot and Jean Scmidt wins, this race could be closer than usual.

Posted by: Craig at April 8, 2006 03:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I talked to a co-worker of mine this week, who lives in CA-50. She's an independent, who voted for Bush in 2000 because she feared Gore would raise taxes on some private interest of hers. She regrets that vote now, hates Bush, hates the war, will vote for Busby. After I explained the dire need for the Dems to retake the House or the Senate so, at least, there can be investigations into all this crap, she really got it and I noticed she said yes 'WE' have to take Congress.

Encouraging.

Posted by: idylld at April 8, 2006 05:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

NV-02. This is usually a very conservative district (it's pretty much the whole state outside of Las Vegas), but polling done this week puts Democrat Jill Derby within 4 (within MOE) of the Republican front runner. Data here:

http://www.lasvegasgleaner.com/las_vegas_gleaner/2006/04/hart_numbers.html

This has always been a safe Republican district, so it's very interesting to see those kinds of numbers. 2006 Democratic tidal wave indeed.

Posted by: Sarah R Carter at April 8, 2006 06:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

NV-02. This has always been a very conservative district (it includes basically the whole state outside of Las Vegas). But new polling shows Democrat Jill Derby within 4 points (within MOE) of the Republican front-runner. You can find the data at the Las Vegas Gleaner.

This is the kind of district that should be safe for the Republicans, so it's very interesting to see those kinds of numbers. We really may be able to come out of nowhere with this race. 2006 Democratic tidal wave indeed.

Posted by: Sarah R Carter at April 8, 2006 06:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Sarah, great news about Jill Derby. I've always kept that race in the back of my mind as a potential pick-up. It would be astounding if we could get that one.

Another race that just piqued my interest in IN-09. I just heard about some interesting new poll data on that race posted at DC's Political Report. I haven't been there yet, but I'm definitely eager to see how Baron Hill is faring there.

Posted by: Mark at April 8, 2006 07:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

My personal list of races to watch seems to be growing...Good! LOL
Interesting news out of NJ, not a Cong race but the Senate Race. Evidently there is someone who thinks Tom Kean Jr., is not conservative enough. So, Richard Ginty who just received 21% of the votes at the Middlesex County GOP Convention (prior to officially announcing a run):

"Kean to face opponent in GOP primary
Data analyst from Ridgewood aims to focus on party conservatives
Friday, April 07, 2006
BY DEBORAH HOWLETT
Star-Ledger Staff
A little-known Bergen County conservative said yesterday he will challenge Tom Kean Jr. in the Republican primary election for U.S. Senate.

John Ginty, a financial data analyst and former chairman of the Ridgewood Republican Club, said he has gathered more than 1,200 signatures from registered Republicans over the past three weeks, more than enough to qualify for the ballot. By law, he must provide at least 1,000 valid signatures to the state by the 4 p.m. Monday filing deadline." Rest of article: http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/index.ssf?/base/news-0/1144388054100320.xml&coll=1

As to whether he'll put pull the rug out from under Kean..... at least it is a sign that Gop conservs are not happy with Kean, a plus in some respects for Menendez. The Jersey Gop has gone down this road before, choosing conservatives in the primary that just can't make it through the general election: Sandman, Bell, Schundler, etc.

Posted by: Predictor at April 8, 2006 08:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thanks for the update, Sarah. NV-02 is going to be an open seat this year because the incumbent, Jim Gibbons, is running for Governor. The frontrunner to replace him is... well, none other than his wife, Dawn Gibbons. The Gleaner makes the case the dynamics in this district, despite the heavy Republican lean, could be very fluid, given the weakness of the Republican candidates--especially Dawn:

"She's already got some 'splainin to do ever since Flash reported that she's tight with, and had a fundraiser hosted by, discredited and disgraced Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham."

Jill Derby raised almost $250k in the first quarter--a pretty respectable sum. The polling, which you can view here, essentially shows that in a 3-way GOP primary, Derby is within 4 points of two of the candidates (Dawn Gibbons and Angle):

CD2
GOP primary:
Dawn Gibbons 34
Dean Heller 25
Sharron Angle 12

General:
Gibbons 37
Jill Derby 33

Heller 43
Derby 25

Angle 32
Derby 28

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at April 8, 2006 08:03 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Best of luck in NV-02. Your demographics are changing, think you are inheriting alot of Calif Dems. This District is trending Dem, and in a good year for us....:

2004 Presidential Vote
Bush (R) 172,422 (57%)
Kerry (D) 123,490 (41%)

2000 Presidential Vote
Bush (R) 134,540 (57%)
Gore (D) 87,705 (37%)

Posted by: Predictor at April 8, 2006 08:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Not counting chicken's yet but hard to ignore good news like this:

"Bush, GOP Approval Ratings Find New Lows"

"These numbers are scary. We've lost every advantage we've ever had," GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio said. "The good news is Democrats don't have much of a plan. The bad news is they may not need one."

Above excerpted from SF Chronicle, Article Here:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2006/04/07/politics/p052648D66.DTL

Posted by: Predictor at April 8, 2006 09:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I was just commenting on the poll that just came out on CA 50. I don't believe Busby will pick up over 50% in the first round. The district is just so conservative (I live in the area, just above the line of CA 50.) If she gets it in the first round, there really is a massive wave moving against the Republicans, which is an idea I am skeptical of but hopeful for.

But there is some good news in the recent polling on this district. I think the most overlooked part of this poll is the evidence that Roach (perfect Republican name) has overtaken Bilbray on the Republican side of the race. The word around here in Oceanside is that Bilbray is by far the strongest of the Republican candidates in part because he is more moderate. If Roach beats him in this round it could be good news for Busby. A more conservative candidate makes it easier for Busby to pull moderate Republican votes.

By the way, if people are interested in the changing demographics in Nevada, one of the best things we can do to push that change along toward the Democrats is support UNITE HERE Local 226. That is the union that organizes casino workers in Las Vegas and Reno, and it is one of the fastest growing and most militant unions in the country. It is getting thousands of immigrants involved in politics.

Posted by: francis at April 8, 2006 11:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Virtual phonebanking is probably one of the cooler innovations to spring up lately. Although, I will note that I didn't really enjoy phone banking when I did it in 2004. But i'm sure it really works for some people.

Posted by: RBH at April 9, 2006 01:36 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thanks to others for giving more info about NV-02. For some reason, I've been having problems posting links here.

That's especially good news for us about NV-02 for my Dad's Senate race. If we can get good Dem turnout in places like that, Jack Carter will have a good chance at taking the state.

Sarah

Posted by: Sarah R Carter at April 9, 2006 02:06 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm interested in DE-AL. Specifically, Dem challenger Dennis Spivack. He's a fighting Dem (Naval intelligence during Vietnam), a philanthropist, a lawyer, and has worked for a number of democratic campaigns (all the way back to RFK). He's also a complete unknown and a total longshot in a state where incumbents rule till retirement. My point - the guy could use some exposure if we're going to make this at least close enough to force GOP rep. Mike Castle to spend some money to prove how "moderate" he is in this very-blue-and-getting-bluer state.

Posted by: X Stryker at April 9, 2006 09:23 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Here's two articles worthy of a read:

BOSTON GLOBE
Missteps threaten House GOP rule
Polls indicate grass-roots anger
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2006/04/09/missteps_threaten_house_gop_rule/

WASHINGTON POST
GOP Sees Disturbing Reflection in The Mirror
Democrats Fell in '94 After Abuses of Power
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/08/AR2006040801031.html

Posted by: Predictor at April 9, 2006 02:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I just received a call from Eric Massa -D-NY-29, our candidate against Randy Kuhl R/C. Totally blown away that he called to thank me for my support, we chatted for about 15 minutes.

Massa sounds quite impressive and very positive. He said Kuhl was strongly tying himself to Bush, including a visit to the District. We both enjoyed a good chuckle over that.
My Congressperson, Nancy Pelosi had recently given him a check, in person, and had told him his race was rated as a top tier priority for the party.
Mr. Massa was very upbeat about Spitzer coattails.
I don't usually answer the phone if I don't recognize the number, this time I am glad I did.

Bush won this district with 53% in 2000, 56% in 2004, with Kuhl receiving only 51% in his 2004 re-election.

Posted by: Predictor at April 9, 2006 07:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

X Stryker,

Why is it that Mike Castle is so popular, and why do the Dems never put up much of an opposition to him? Is the (D) bench that weak there that they can't find anyone to run against him? I find that hard to believe from such a blue state.

Posted by: Fran for Dean at April 9, 2006 07:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Castle is a former governor with a "moderate" reputation. The local Dem bench isn't weak, to my knowledge, but they seem to be waiting for him to vacate the seat before anyone mounts an aggressive challenge for it--which is a shame, because some people believe that Castle is ripe to take over Biden's Senate seat if he vacates to run for President.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at April 9, 2006 07:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Ooops that was meant to be Kuhl's "election" not "re-election". Kuhl succeeded Rep Amo Houghton R-C.

Posted by: Predictor at April 9, 2006 07:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Fran,
To add to HellofaSandwich's response, Delaware has only recently (within the past decade or so) become a solid-blue state. Before that, it was considered a bellwether state like Missouri. It's also a low-tax, pro-corporate state - ideal for socially liberal, pro-business Republicans like Castle. Finally, Castle is chummy with Senators Biden and Carper, and they're unlikely to make any effort beyond lip-service to help a Democrat unseat him. Carper and Castle have offices in adjacent Chase Bank (formerly BankOne) towers on the riverfront.

Posted by: X Stryker at April 10, 2006 08:58 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment