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Tuesday, November 08, 2005

Election Day Predictions Thread

Posted by DavidNYC

Okay, time for predictions. Here are the races we'll do:

VA-Gov - winner and final tally
NJ-Gov - winner and final tally
Reform Ohio Now (ballot issues 2-5) - win/lose only
California ballot issues (73-80) - win/lose only

My predictions:

Kaine, 52-48
Corzine, 54-46
RON: Yes on 2, 3, 5; No on 4
CA: No on 74-78; Yes on 73, 79 & 80

Predictions are free. Go for it!

Posted at 02:04 PM in 2005 Elections | Technorati

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Comments

Kaine, 51-49
Corzine, 53-47
RON: Yes on 2, 3; No on 4,5
CA: No on 74-80, Yes on 73

Don't forget gay rights...
Maine: No on 1

Posted by: Oliver at November 8, 2005 02:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

My predictions:

VA-Gov....I think it'll be fiercely close, and I have no clue about how well the independent candidate (name?) will poll. But here goes: Kaine 48.8%, Kilgore 48.4%, Independent 2.5%

NJ-Gov....I've always thought this would be much closer than predicted, but with even "The View" coming down on Forrester this morning for exploiting the anger of Corzine's ex-wife, I think the undecideds could break to Corzine. Final guess: Corzine 53%, Forrester 47%

From what I've seen most of the Ohio initiatives are likely to be defeated (although I don't know which number goes to which prop...and I haven't been following too closely). I'll take a bye on this one.

In Cali, I'm HOPING that they all go down, but I suspect that parental notification for underage abortions will fly. The rest I predict will be defeated, but the conflicting data troubles me.

And here's my boldest prediction of the day....the gay marriage ban WILL PASS in Texas. Hopefully it flops in Maine though.

Posted by: Mark at November 8, 2005 02:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

VA: Kaine 49, Kilgore 48, Potts 3
NJ: Corzine 52, Forrester 47, Other 1
OH: Yes on 2,3,5 - no on 4
CA: No on all of them.

Posted by: quotison at November 8, 2005 02:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Kaine 53-47
Corzine 55-45
RON YES 2,3,4,5,
Cali Yes 73, NO 74-80
Oh, and we're not doing these but we'll have new Mayors in Cleveland and Detroit for sure.

Posted by: OH-09Dem at November 8, 2005 03:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Crud, I forgot all about Potts. I still say a four-point margin for Kaine, at least among the Kaine & Kilgore votes exclusively. I know, that's big... but somehow I think the mo' is with Kaine.

Posted by: DavidNYC at November 8, 2005 03:03 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Damn you, Potts!

Kaine 50, Kilgore 48, Potts 2

Posted by: Oliver at November 8, 2005 03:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Ah, David, if only I could feel that optimism right now!

Given the anecdotal devastating effects of the Republican Governors Association deceptive "Pro-Choice Voter Alert" robocalls in NoVA, I'm gonna have to predict:

Kilgore 49
Kaine 46
Potts 4

I would LOOOOOOOOOOVE to be totally, totally wrong, of course.

Posted by: Maura in VA at November 8, 2005 03:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Kaine 49, Kilgore 46
Corzine, 54-46
RON: Yes on 2, 3, 5; No on 4
CA: No on everything

Posted by: Bob Brigham at November 8, 2005 03:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Bob, are you on the ground in Ohio hearing things about how it's looking for RON 4?

Posted by: OH-09Dem at November 8, 2005 03:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

No, I'm in California and will have on the ground updates tonight. Tagaris is in Ohio, he'll keep everyone in the loop.

Posted by: Bob Brigham at November 8, 2005 03:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

VA: Kaine 50, Kilgore 47, Potts 3
NJ: Corzine 54, Forrester 45, Others 1
OH: Yes on 2, 3, 5; No on 4
CA: No on 73-80

Posted by: PoliticalLefty at November 8, 2005 04:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Alright, here we go!

VA: Kaine 51, Kilgore 46, Potts 3
OH: Yes on 2, 3 and 5; No on 4.
CA: No on all of Ah-nold's proposals.
NJ: Corzine 56, Forrester 44.

Go Mayor Menino!!

Posted by: Danno11 at November 8, 2005 05:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I just got back from working a poll here in Cleveland and I will tell you people are definitely confused about Reform Ohio Now (issues 2-5). It's not often people will stop on their way into the polls and ask to have issues explained in great detail and ask questions. My feeling on RON is all pass, or #2 passes and the others don't. I know the polls and popular wisdom is that #4 is going down and #4 does seem to confuse people the most, but the heavy ad push on TV from the No's in the last week or two has been specifially on #3 and I ran into one voter who said he kinda liked the other three issues but wouldn't #3 take away your free "speech." (Unfortunately the right wing has been too successful in framing "speech" as something you purchase).

I think the "no" people brought up fraud in connection with #2 (no-fault absentee) just to get people thinking "no" because they figure if you start them with "no" they end up there.

I'm feeling optimsitic. Of course, I have no way of gauging how many "Christian" voters "patriot pastor" Rod Parsley and his friends have been able to fire up because I don't run in those circles. Maybe they're stay home because they don't get the chance to vote to protect their marriages from the evil homos, even though, incredibly, the anti-Reform people DID try to equate the issues with "traditional family values."

Posted by: Ansatasia P at November 8, 2005 05:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Oliver, i dont mean to be a copycat.

But i'd just like to say that i think what you predicted will happen. I was planning to do a seperate post but your predictions matched mine exactly.

Posted by: Jared86 at November 8, 2005 08:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment