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Thursday, October 06, 2005

PA-Sen: Landslide

Posted by Tim Tagaris

Bob Casey Jr. has extended his lead from 11 to 18 in the most recent Quinnipiac poll.

From September 27 - October 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,530 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat, and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Bob Casey: 52% (50)
Rick Santorum: 34% (39)
Don't Know/Other: 14% (12)

If you look closer at the numbers, you'll find that Casey has a lead on Rick Santorum in each and every region of the state, with the exception of Central PA. Also, I think you'll find that this Casey bounce has a lot to do with disaffection with the current Republican Adminstration. Support for the occupation of Iraq in Pennsylvania is at a thirty-seven percent, to fifty-seven who disapprove. Bush's approval rating is at a lowly 37% to 61% who disapprove. For the first time, a plurality of Pennsylvania voters believe Rick Santorum DOES NOT deserve to be re-election, 41% to 42%, that's from a 45-38 spread last time Quinnipiac was in the field. Meanwhile, Casey's approval rating has barely budged:

Is your opinion of State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

Approve: 38% (39)
Disapprove: 9% (9)
Mixed: 20% (17)
DK: 33% (36)

For the past few months, I have always thought Casey's numbers would go down; it was just a matter of time. But maybe this thing really will be a blowout that never materializes into a real race? We can only hope. To the extent we can keep his race out of the national spotlight (which a close race would be), we minimize further national confusion about what we stand for as a Democratic Party.

Posted at 10:54 AM in Pennsylvania | Technorati

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There is still 33% voters who believe they don't know enough about Casey to form an opinion of him. This isn't surprising giving his stealth campaign; He almost never talks issues, he just talks about how he'll beat Santorum. Pennsylvania voters said 57 - 37 % that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do. I wonder how the results would change if everyone knew that Casey fully supports the war and is against developing any timeline or exit strategy for our troops.

I think the fact Casey continues to lead Santorum in the polls says far more about Santorum than Casey... Look at the way the question is phrased "If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican for whom would you vote?" You can expect that the majority of Democrats will say they'll vote for the Dem, even if they don't know a thing about him... But whether they actually show up to the polls on election day is another thing.

I believe a progressive like Chuck Pennacchio (www.chuck2006.com) is still the only one who can beat Santorum. Once progressives find out that Casey is Santorum-lite, most of them will stay home in November '06. Casey is actually MORE conservative than Santorum on the issues of the death penalty and gun control.

Posted by: Dave [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 6, 2005 05:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Dave's right. We don't have to settle for an Anti-Choice candidate like Casey Jr. We need a real Progressive who will stand up for what we believe in.

Chuck Pennacchio is the way to go.

Go Chuck!!!
*** Chuck is endorsed by the President of NOW's PA Chapter ***

Posted by: Judith Stein-Stevens [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 17, 2005 02:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment