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Wednesday, October 12, 2005

NYC-Mayor: Bad News for Ferrer

Posted by DavidNYC

A new poll from Marist puts Freddy Ferrer (D) far behind Mike Bloomberg (registered voters, late Sept. in parens):

Ferrer: 33 (37)
Bloomberg: 56 (50)
Other: 2 (2)
Undecided: 9 (11)
(MoE: ±4%)

I'm using Marist's registered voter numbers because I don't trust their likely voter screen. Their much-discussed NJ gubernatorial poll put Corzine up just 1 point with likely voters (2 with leaners) - putting it, as I've observed below - well outside the range of just about every other poll. However, their RV numbers were much more in line, giving Corzine a seven-point lead.

But either way, these numbers don't give Freddy much succor. I don't see, though, why he'd go from -13 to -23 in just a couple of weeks. I suppose Bloomberg's saturation campaign might have something to do with it - but his massive media buys have been going on so extensively for so long, I'd be surprised if they could have any serious effect right now.

And Ferrer has pretty much avoided the mis-steps that plagued him early in the primary campaign. He's even come up with a couple of politically clever maneuvers, like dinging Mayor Mike about "Pay to Pray" (ie, requiring people to feed meters on Sundays, when many are in church). But Pay to Pray, cute as it is, is really just small potatoes. I don't know how Ferrer can gain momentum in the little time he has left, especially since he's hit fundraising difficulties.

It may well be that in politics, it ain't over till it's over, but it's looking like it'll take something near-miraculous for Ferrer to pull out a victory here. Then again, this is the city that produced the Mets, who managed to win the World Series in `69 despite finishing in 9th place the year before. So I'll still keep my fingers crossed.

Posted at 12:26 PM in 2005 Elections, New York | Technorati

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I think you reversed the names, or else this is the biggest outlier poll in history.

Posted by: njdem [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 12, 2005 01:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

LOL! Thanks. I'll fix that.

Posted by: DavidNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 12, 2005 01:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I work in NYC in an office heavily populated with liberal democrats (of which I am one). I don't know anyone who supports Ferrer. Bloomberg is a republican in name only and he has done a good job. Ferrer is viewed as a lifelong politian with no accomplishments.

Posted by: Steve [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 12, 2005 05:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm not a smoker, but one of the key grievances I have with Bloomberg (and with the bipartisan insurgence of the nanny state in general) is his totalitarian takeover of personal freedoms in regards to tobacco. I have a libertarian slant on issues of personal freedoms, and am thoroughly appalled by the trend Bloomberg started to micromanage legal conduct (tobacco use) in privately-owned establishments. This is essentially a non-economic form of class warfare that pits the caviar class against the disproportionately working-class demographic of tobacco users, and siding with the "cakes". Bloomberg may be a Republican (or a RINO) but the hysterical anti-smoking movement is generally being commandeered by Democrats, and I see it as one more example of why the Dems are losing the working-class vote. When the steelworker discovers that his Democratic Mayor/Governor is kicking him out of his favorite bar when he wants to relax with a cigarette after a hard day's work, he's gonna start looking for alternatives the next time he goes to the voting booth.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 12, 2005 06:22 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment