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Friday, September 16, 2005

PA-Sen: Imagine It Getting Worse For Santorum

Posted by Tim Tagaris

...Cause it just did. A whole slew of new numbers to chew on from the most recent Keystone Poll released today.

Keystone Poll. September 8-13. 650 Respondents - MoE Not Reported.

Bob Casey: 50%
Rick Santorum: 37%
Don't Know: 13%

Favorables for Santorum
Favorable: 40% (42)
Unfavorable: 32% (26)
Undecided: 14% (13)
Don't Know: 14% (18)

Favorables for Casey
Favorable: 32% (40)
Unfavorable: 7% (9)
Undecided: 22% (15)
Don't Know: 39% (36)

Just when you thought it couldn't get much worse for Santorum. These numbers are pretty close to the Strategic Vision numbers released yesterday. Again, a whole bunch of good stuff to take a look at inside the poll, including a few questions about evolution/creation, statewide politics, and the governor's race in Pennsylvania. In short, Republican's aren't certain about the three primary choices they have, but Lynn Swann (25%) leads Picolla (5%) and Scranton (18%); the majority of voters remain undecided. I'd guess there will not a be a primary here. Rendell leads all three of the Republicans, but interestingly Picolla is the closest at 46-37. Scranton trails Rendell 51-34, and Swann fares even worse at 53-33.

No other canidates were included in the Keystone Poll for U.S. Senate (Chuck Pennacchio or Alan Sandals). It's interesting to note the steep decline in Casey's favorables, however. For the time being, it appears the hide-and-seek campaign against Santorum is all that its been cracked up to be.

Posted at 07:48 AM in Pennsylvania | Technorati


Back in an April survey, 38% of respondents said they didn't know enough about Casey to form an opinion. 74% didn't know his position on abortion and 9% mistakenly thought he was pro-choice. Only 18 percent agreed with the vehemently anti-choice positions held by Casey and Santorum while 14 % would be very likely (and 25% said they would be somewhat likely) to vote for an independent pro-choice candidate if given the chance.


As more and more Democrats in Pennsylvania find out how conservative Casey is on social issues and foreign policy I suspect that his favorability rating will go down even more. You can't win an issues based election like US Senate on name recognition alone. If it ends up being Casey v. Santorum, Casey will lose because lots of pro-choice and anti-war Democrats won't want to vote for him.

Casey won't get pro-life Republican votes, because they don't trust him to be a real pro-lifer. When Casey Jr. followers claim this, they use Casey's father as an example. But Casey's father refused to endorse Harris Wofford, Bill Clinton, or any other pro-choice Democrat. Casey Jr. endorsed John Kerry.

Here's a discussion showing what pro-lifers think of the prospect of voting for Casey:

Chuck Pennacchio is our only hope of defeating Santorum!

Posted by: Dave [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 18, 2005 05:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment