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Monday, November 01, 2004
I'm Feeling Good
Posted by DavidNYCI think the big picture is looking very good for us, and I think we're gonna win this one. Putting aside all the stories about GOTV and early voting (which I think favor us), here's why I'm feeling good:
In Ohio, the only polls which have shown Bush at 50% since September 28th - and there have been a LOT of polls conducted since that time - have been one Strategic Vision poll on 10/11 and one Zogby online poll on 10/18. Strategic Vision, of course, is a GOP pollster, and everyone loves to (justifiably) question Zogby's results. Oh yeah, you probably saw that cute Columbus Dispatch poll the other day, which also had Bush at 50. But guess what - it had Kerry at 50, too.
In Florida, Bush has occasionally poked his nose above 50%, but more often than not, he has failed to do so. Don't be mislead by the LA Times poll you see on that Race2004.net link - Bush was at 49 among RVs. Gallup's poll from the 24th is also misleading, but for different reasons - though reasons you should probably be familiar with by now. Steve Soto has repeatedly and conclusively shredded Gallup's voter samples - they overweight for Republicans as if it were 1868.
Prior to that, you again have that Zogby 10/18 interactive poll, and then back very early in October, you have a poll each from Quinnipiac, SUSA and Rasmussen, all of whom have released newer polls which show Bush back below 50. Yes, Rasmussen had Bush at 50 on the 27th, but he had him at 49 on the 29th.
In Pennsylvania, Bush has not been at 50% well, basically, ever. Yes, Gallup had him at 50% yesterday, but again a) it's Gallup and b) it's LVs - with RVs, Kerry is up 49-47. Also, Gallup doesn't ordinarily publish their voting sample party ID numbers. Steve Soto has to nag them for those numbers each and every time.
But whatever - this is still exactly ONE poll showing Bush at 50% in PA when, to the best of my knowledge, NONE have previously shown him that high in that state. I'm gonna bet on the other six zillion polls.
What about the other states, where Bush has supposedly been making gains of late? In Michigan, Bush hit 50% once upon a time in a Free Press poll, back on September 27th. That's about as fresh as a twinkie buried in Howard Hughes' tomb. In Iowa, he's done so twice in that time-span, and again, once was a Gallup poll where the RVs had him down to Kerry, 47-48. If Karl Rove wants to hang his hat on that one SUSA poll, he's welcome to do so.
Wisconsin? Sigh... this song is starting to get repetitive! Yep, one poll above 50% in the past month, and again, Gallup, about which nothing more need be said. And in Minnesota, Bush has never gotten to 50 in the past month.
Finally, I'll wrap up with New Mexico. Well, there's been a lot less polling here than in the other major swing states (perhaps as befits its five EVs), but except for one (say it with me) Gallup poll early in October, the only good news for Bush is a new Zogby poll out today which has him at 51-42. Ugly for us, I'll grant. But if we lose NM (which I don't think we will), then we're still fine.
If we win FL and OH (plus NH, which I think is in the bag for us), then even if we lose some of the states in the Upper Midwest, we can still win. I make this point not to suggest we have some kind of cushion, but because if I'm right about OH and FL, then I think there's almost no way we'll do terribly in the Midwest.
The fairest objection to this analysis is that I'm relying on the 50 percent rule too heavily (ie, undecideds may not break our way, even though historical trends say they ought to), or there are just too few undecideds to matter. If you believe the former situation is the case, then none of this polling matters, so you can skip right on past it. But as for the latter possibility, even if there are only a tiny number of undecideds, if they mostly break our way, that can tip this election.
Ok, I've said more than enough. How are you feeling?
Posted at 12:15 AM in General | Technorati
Comments
David,
I'm feeling good too, for the same reasons as you. To add a few more numbers to justify our good feelings, I am duplicating some information from a previous post on the open thread below:
...consider the following percentages of Bush voters, recall the famous 50% rule (It really should be the 48.5-49% rule this year), smile, and then work your butts off to GOTV:
Florida 48.5
Ohio 47.8
Pennsylvania 46.7
Wisconsin 46.3
Iowa 47.8
Minnesota 46.0
Michigan 45.0
Missouri 49.5
New Mexico 48.6
Nevada 49.7
New Hampshire 46.7
Maine 42.0
Oregon 45.0
New Jersey 42.3
Hawaii 44.7
Even if we give Bush Nevada, New Mexico, Missouri, and Florida off this list, Kerry still wins. I think that we are working now to seal the victory and increase the margin, while they are left working to steal the election yet one more time.
Posted by: Randy C at November 1, 2004 12:50 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Now I definitely think Kerry is going to win. The champaign is ready ... See you guys on Tuesday evening then. 300+ for Kerry !
Posted by: Roland Lemberger at November 1, 2004 01:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
and don't forget the Redskins lost today that seals the deal for me...and yep, Ron is right, 300+ for Kerry...
Posted by: Fred Hartwell at November 1, 2004 01:49 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I was just about to mention how obviously flawed the 50% CW is if you were to have numbers like 49%/43% or something, but when I went to look for a swing example like that I couldn't find one! So I guess I'm feeling good too.
Posted by: Dan I. at November 1, 2004 02:20 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm feeling pretty good too. Kerry gets around 300 votes, winning the big trio of OH,FL, and PA. The smaller swing states split, but at that point it won't matter.
Posted by: Brett at November 1, 2004 03:14 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I am feeling cautiously optimistic about the popular vote, and quietly confident about the electoral college. I think Kerry will get over 300 EVs.
Posted by: kariq at November 1, 2004 04:34 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Don't feel too good yet.
There are an awful lot of critical states that are really, really close. The least hint of complacency could be fatal. In the words of one of its own former members, the Bitch Administration is nasty people with long memories. There are two days left, and we need to finish this.
Even if you are confident of victory, remember that anything but a complete repudiation will suggest to the Bitch/Rove machine that their strategy of smear, deceit, and dispossession is basically sound, and that they only need to tweak it a little bit. We need to drive a wooden stake through the heart of this creature and then remove its head and fill its mouth with holy wafers -- remember that Congress is still dominated by knuckle-draggers, and President Kerry is not going to be able to accomplish ANYTHING unless he has the big stick of a strong mandate to swing at these assholes. And think about how much you want to face another Karl Rove creation in 2008, after four years of Congress blocking any and all actions out of the Kerry White House.
Victory is not at all assured, and in any case, a simple victory is no better than a weak start toward reclaiming this nation's soul and good name.
Posted by: Marsden at November 1, 2004 08:09 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Folks, you are lying to yourselves to make yourself feel better. This election is *NOT* in the bag for anyone. And anybody who says so has lost their objectivity. If you don't wake up on Tuesday morning, look at yourself in the mirror, and realize that either Kerry or Bush, with as close to equal probability as possible, will be president for the next 4 years, then there is something wrong.
Lying to yourself doesn't help. Yeah, I want Bush to win. So what. Kerry could win. So could Bush. Counting votes in polls where they aren't (allocating undecideds) is a risky business. Yep, you might be right. But you could easily be wrong too. The more people who lie to themselves about this, the more ugly the aftermath will be. On both sides. This won't help anybody, not you, not us, not the candidate.
In conclusion, this is a crap-shoot. DON'T BET ON IT!
Posted by: MarkOlsen at November 1, 2004 08:53 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
me too!
48.5% is definitly not enough for Bush. It all depends on how much Nader and other people can get. I think this time they will get 1.5% at the most. Then even Bush gets 49%, Kerry still can win 49.5%.
I think Bush's popular vote shoud be between 48.5% and 49.5%. And Kerry's should be 49% to 50%. So there will be four most likely results:
1 Kerry 50%, Bush 48.5%
2 Kerry 49.5%, Bush 49%
3 Both 49%
4 Kerry 49%, Bush 49.5%
Posted by: brightwater at November 1, 2004 09:23 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Let's put it this way: I would not bet a significant amount of my money on either candidate. It's simply too close to call. Even if the winning candidate gets over 300 EVs, that will belie the fact of how razor-thin the winning margins will have been in several key swing states.
BTW, I wonder if tomorrow's Election Day weather forecast for rain and thunder storms all across the Buckeye State might reduce the voter turnout in OH? OH is an example of a state that really is a coin toss in so many ways.
Posted by: Pepe at November 1, 2004 09:23 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I am cautiously optimistic but this is going to be a squeaker. This is what I currently think:
Gore states which switch: Probably NM and possibly IA & FL. I think IA & FL are about a 50/50 chance. Of course, we must have FL to win. I have a good feeling about FL because we are more motivated after the fiasco of 2000.
Gore states which could, but I do not think will switch: MN & WI. I am getting more confident that we will win these to, but it could change.
Bush state that will switch: NH.
Bush state that could, but I do not think will switch: OH. I think Bush has been solidifying his base here the last week.
EV prediction: We lose NM, barely hold FL, and also gain NH.
Kerry 286 - Bush 252.
Posted by: DFuller at November 1, 2004 09:25 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
DFuller, Kerry's gonna be camped out in Ohio today. I suspect he'll win there but lose in Florida...and I disagree that he NEEDS Florida to win. If he wins OH and NH, he can lose both NM and IA and still have 272. I don't care to test that theory, but I am guardedly optimistic myself since new voter trends favor Kerry.
Posted by: Mark at November 1, 2004 09:37 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Early exit poll info from Florida and Iowa is available at JABBS, at http://jabbs.blogspot.com
Hint: This is positive for Kerry.
Posted by: DM at November 1, 2004 10:00 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
DM,
The Democrats have done an excellent job in getting voters to the polls early in FL this year. Four years ago, the Republicans were the big early voters there. I think the ghosts of 2000 have made the Democrats understand the only way to win is to vote. My feeling is that Democrats are going to show up in very large numbers in FL. The polling there is very mixed, but turnout will put Kerry over the top there.
Posted by: DFuller at November 1, 2004 10:17 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Wouldn't it be wonderful--and poetic justice--if FL were to be the state to put John Kerry over the top in this election? Fingers crossed!
Posted by: Pepe at November 1, 2004 10:53 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Also at JABBS (http://jabbs.blogspot.com) is info on Zogby's latest numbers from young voters, and the potential effect of a large young-voter turnout on the general election.
Posted by: DM at November 1, 2004 11:25 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I've come up with this (I hope) worst-case scenario:
Kerry 281 Bush 257 (that's with Bush winning Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, Colorado and Arkansas)
I don't actually think all five of those will go to Bush, but then again, Florida isn't a sure thing, either.
Posted by: DM at November 1, 2004 11:30 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Turnout is going to rock. This morning, in an interview on local public radio, our county clerk (a Republican) said that based on early and absentee numbers, she expects an 80% turnout! Now I think that's unreasonable, but I do think that 70% isn't outside the realm of possibility. We have been doing GOTV like mad, here. Too bad we're an insignificantly small county down here in the corner of Colorado...
In nearby San Juan county NM they are reporting 40% of voters have already cast ballots. So I think it's looking really good for a heavy turnout, at least based on my itsy bitsy sample size.
I predict that that Bush will win Colorado by a handful of votes. Less than a few thousand. This will depress all of us activists who will be second-guessing our GOTV efforts for the next few weeks, but will also give us hope that next time Colorado *will* turn blue.
Posted by: Ilana at November 1, 2004 11:55 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I find it intriguing how most people now seem to be conceding Ohio to Bush but believing Kerry will win Florida. My feelings are just the opposite. Don't be deterred by a couple right-skewing Mason-Dixon polls in Ohio. Things are looking very good for us there. Florida is where I'm far less optimistic. Kerry needs one of the two to have a chance.
Wisconsin is looking very good for Kerry right now, and Minnesota is looking much better too. Even Iowa is trending our way, after a serious scare two weeks ago. I'm also suspicious of these New Mexico polls. I believe Kerry will win there, and possibly eke out a win in Nevada based on the new Hispanic voters. One concern for me is Pennsylvania, which Kerry has all but ignored this past week at the same time as Bush has hit it hard...and the polls are correspondingly tightening. If I were Kerry I would have made one more trip to PA this weekend. It would be a heartbreaker if that slipped away.
Posted by: Mark at November 1, 2004 12:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
To clarify, I certainly don't think we have this one in the bag, and I certainly don't think we can rest easy or be complacent. Not at all.
I do still think Kerry is going to win, and I do still think we have reasons to feel good about that prospect. But I'm not predicting a slam-dunk victory - not at all.
Posted by: DavidNYC at November 1, 2004 12:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Tracking polls looking good today. Up in 2, down in 1, and 1 even.
(Today) Yesterday
Rasmussen
Kerry 48.8 (48.2)
Bush 49.4 (48.8)
-.6 (-.6)
Fox
Kerry 48 (46)
Bush 46 (46)
+2 (0)
TIPP
Kerry 45 (43)
Bush 47 (48)
-2 (-5)
Zogby
Kerry 47 (48)
Bush 48 (48)
-1 (0)
Posted by: DFuller at November 1, 2004 01:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I know I'm not supposed to be paying attention to the polls, but the past 48 hours have been fascinating. If you look at the polls in OH, FL, PA, IA, and WI, the leads are going back and forth like a ping pong ball. Rarely is either candidate is outside the margin of error, and it swings a couple of points ahead for Kerry one moment, then back to Bush the next. Of the states mentioned, there is no way to determine who has the momentum. I"m seriously questioning if either man has any momentum at this very late stage. Not even the people in those states can have a real clue as to who will win. Right now we're all running on what we call blind faith. This is FAR from a done deal! And yet the irony will be that the winner will probably win by a pretty decisive margin in the Electoral College--at least I hope so, for our democray's continued stability.
Posted by: Pepe at November 1, 2004 01:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Pepe-
I agree with your last post. The last election hurt our Democracy. Although I hope Bush wins, I hope that the winner wins big in the EV. I really can't stomach another protracted recount...and this time it could be multiple states.
Posted by: John at November 1, 2004 01:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I don't think anybody is saying that we've got this thing won. Certainly I'm not. But we have reason to feel good about our positioning. It's a nailbiter and we have to finish strong, but we seem to be in a good position to do so. My daughter just called me from Philly. She said she was having a pretty down day until she walked out side and found the streets of western Philly filled with Kerry supporters waving signs and definitely energized. That energy is produced by the fact that people are really turned-off and angry by the war and by the unethical and anti-democratic efforts of the Republican party to suppress the vote. There is a lot of energy out there for us to finish strong. Sure we could lose but that doesn't mean I'm not going to feel good about our positioning for a strong finish. We all still have to do our part!
I loved Clinton's statement at the rally in New Mexico on Saturday. "If one party telling you to get out there and vote and the other is trying to suppress the vote, you'd better vote for the guys who are telling you to vote". That's pretty damn good advice that simply expresses volumes.
Posted by: Randy C at November 1, 2004 02:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Pepe -
The polls we get to see aren't very good polls. The samples are very small compared to the internal polls the candidates have. I would love to take a peep at their polls. My guess is their polls show it pretty close too. Tomorrow night will probably run pretty late. No one will want to call FL or OH until they are certain. I plan on staying until the following happens:
1) If the Big 3 (PA, FL, OH) are called for Kerry, then I can go to bed. (Kerry wins)
2) If 2 of the Big 3 go to Bush, then I can go to bed. (Bush wins)
3) If 2 are Kerry, and 1 is Bush I will watch until WI, IA, & MN are called. (Whoever wins two out of three of these wins if Kerry gets FL. Kerry must win all three if Kerry loses FL.)
Posted by: DFuller at November 1, 2004 02:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
DFuller is right, the western states aren't going to decide the election, so hopefully everyone can go to bed relatively early. Speaking of internals, what of the Dems saying Kerry is only 1 point behind in Missouri? Any emergency visits planned?
Posted by: Brett at November 1, 2004 02:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Brett, I hadn't heard that. Got a link?
Posted by: DavidNYC at November 1, 2004 03:03 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Anybody notice that terror alerts have been sent to US embassies and that the election office in Tallahassee was evacuated while police, firemen, and hazmat teams invetigated a "suspicious" package that had been left there?
Could these be the desparation November surprises conjured up by Karl Rove? I wouldn't put it past him.
Posted by: Randy C at November 1, 2004 03:22 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
i think, in any case, that the Republicans will try to litigate their way to victory. i only hope that it does not end up in the Supreme Court to be decided by people with severe conflicts of interest.
Posted by: puthupa at November 1, 2004 03:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I think if the Supreme Court were to once again hand the election over to Bush, there would be major rioting in the streets. I really don't expect the Supreme Court to get involved this time around.
Posted by: pepe at November 1, 2004 04:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
i'd certainly hope not. hearing about Rehnquist also underscores the importance of this election.
Posted by: puthupa at November 1, 2004 04:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Sorry David, no link. I heard about it on CNN last night. I think it was Jeff Greenfield that said Dem. internals show Kerry 1 down in Missouri. I did hear it, but I have no evidence for it. Just checked CNN.com and found nothing.
Posted by: Brett at November 1, 2004 05:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I also heard that 1 point in Missouri thing somewhere, Brett. I don't remember where though. Out of all the campaign things I read, it is hard to keep track. Rehnquist is incapacitated right now, and there is no provision for someone to fill in. So it will actually be a 4-4 tie this time, and talk about gridlock.
Posted by: Sam at November 1, 2004 07:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Interesting post on talkingpointsmemo.com from inside the Bush camp. They are nervous, to say the least.
Posted by: DM at November 2, 2004 12:43 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment