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Friday, October 22, 2004

Swing the Bat for Ginny & Open Thread

Posted by DavidNYC

You all know how the bat works - now it's Ginny's turn at the plate. Though we have already far exceeded our original goal - we've raised over $4800 - the Schrader campaign needs to send out one final mailing, and they need our help. We aren't setting any particular goal this time - we just want to contribute as much as we can by Wednesday at midnight. Let's do something of Red Sox-ian proportions here. Please give whatever you can.

Donate to Ginny Schrader: $

Please feel free to use this as an open thread as well, as I'm travelling today.

Posted at 03:44 PM in Pennsylvania | Technorati


Friends, I'm starting to get a very good feeling about this election. Two new polls, Gallup and Ohio University, released today have Kerry 6 points up. Bush is polling around 43% If these polls are even close, Bush may be dying in Ohio. And if Bush can't hold Ohio, he is in big, big trouble.

Posted by: willis at October 22, 2004 03:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Both of the above-mentioned pols are for the state of Ohio only... but you probably got that...

Posted by: willis at October 22, 2004 03:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Seeing as most of you are probably older than me, I'm not sure if you heard this or not. But I'll say it anyway. This morning in my American History class, my professor explained to us Allan Lichtman's "thirteen keys" model for predicting presidential elections. I was curious and looked it up. Turns out that the model has worked for every election since 1860,(minus 2000, but Gore wasn't an incumbent, so it skewed the results) which should mean this year is no exception. The qualities of the campaign don't matter. And if the incumbent has more than five discrepancies, they're burnt toast. Here are the "keys" in question form:

1. Did the incumbent party gain at least 51 percent of the vote cast in the previous election? No. One strike for Bush.

2. Was there a serious contest for the nomination of the incumbent party candidate? No. No discrepancy.

3. Was there major third party activity during the election year? That would be Nader. Two for Bush.

4. Is the incumbent party candidate the sitting president? Yes. No discrepancy.

5. Was the yearly mean per-capita rate of growth in real Gross National Product during the incumbent administration equal to or greater than the mean rate of the previous eight years, and equal to or greater than 1 percent? No. That's three.

6. Is the election year a time of recession or depression? Debatable, but since perception is on the side of Kerry, that's four.

7. Did the incumbent president initiate major changes in national policy? Yes. No discrepancy.

8. Was there major social unrest during the incumbent administration? No. Discepacy there's not.

9. Was the incumbent administration tainted by major scandal? Bad CIA intelligence, Valerie Plame, you name it. And thus we have five. But there's more.

10. Did the incumbent party suffer a major setback in foreign or military policy? We're in a frickin' quagmire. Another point for Bush makes six.

11. Did it achieve a major success in foreign or military policy? Read above. Seven.

12. Is the incumbent party candidate charismatic or a national hero? Teddy Roosevelt was charismatic. Bill Clinton was charismatic. Bush is not. Eight.

13. Is the challenging party candidate charismatic or a national hero? As much as we would like to think so, he's not. So no discrepancy.

So of thirteen possible "keys to victory", Bush has eight turning away from him. That is bad news for him, and could play out to be very good news for us.

Posted by: Dale at October 22, 2004 04:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I got my vote in today. Maybe the fourth time is a charm.

1994 - Voted for Ann Richards. Junior defeated her.
1998 - Voted for Mauro. Junior defeated him.
2000 - Voted for Gore but the Supreme Court voted for Junior.
2004 - Voted for Kerry.

One thing I always do is vote for the Libertarian if there is no Democrat on the ballot. I do that to try to keep the Libertarians on for the future. Eventually, the Democrats will once again dominate Texas and they Libertarians are good to take away a few Republican votes.

Posted by: DFuller at October 22, 2004 04:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Just saw the new Time magazine poll. Not good news for JFK. Among likely voters, Bush 51%-JFK 46%. Among registered Bush 50%-JFK 44%. Ok, I admit I have been fighting the good fight here for a looooong time now, waiting for the Kerry to close the deal. After all, he is supposedly the "great closer." Have I been fighting in vain? Can any of you ppl. who analyze these polls tell me whether this time poll has any validity? With 11 days to go and with these kind of numbers, I am seriously considering throwing in the towel on Kerry.

Posted by: bigguy at October 22, 2004 04:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment


I look more at the 3 day tracking polls and compare them on a week to week basis:

10/19-21 (12-14)

Bush 47 (48)
Kerry 45 (44)

Bush 45 (47)
Kerry 45 (44)

Bush 49.1 (49.0)
Kerry 45.9 (45.5)

WA Post
Bush 50 (48)
Kerry 46 (48)

Bush 47.8(48.0)
Kerry 45.5 (45.1)
Bush +2.3 (+2.9)

Posted by: DFuller at October 22, 2004 05:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Interesting what happened up in Boston to the fans celebrating the Sox win over the Yankees on Wednesday. The crowd did get a little over-exuberant, but for the most part they were not over-the-top. It occured to me that this may be a shot across the bow to any groups that might decide to assemble and protest if irregularitites come to light on election day. Think about it!!

Posted by: bigguy at October 22, 2004 05:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Throw in the towel? What does that mean exactly? You won't pay any attention to politics after today? You'll assume Bush won and not watch election returns on November 2?

Gallup had Bush ahead by 13 points one week to the day before Gore won the popular vote in 2000.

Among likely voters, the Associated Press has Kerry up by three points nationally in a poll released today. Two major polls in Ohio have Kerry ahead by SIX points.

According to ABC, registartion in heavily democratic counties in Florida is up 11% since 2000.

Throw in the towel? No, I don't think you should throw in the towel. Keep the faith!

Posted by: willis at October 22, 2004 05:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

One more thing: Minnesota is a swing state, right? Jesse Ventura just endorsed John Kerry.

Posted by: w at October 22, 2004 05:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

bigguy--it's way too soon to give up hope, although like you I find myself frustrated and agonized by the large number of polls that show Bush to be slightly ahead. Things to keep in mind: First, The undecided vote is likely to break for Kerry by something like 70% to 30%. Second, many of the polls seem to skew slightly (c.1-4 points?) Republican by not taking into account how angry Dems are and therefore how likely they are to vote even if they haven't previously. Many of us believe there was something close to a coup in 2000 that has been terrible for our nation and the world. Young voters are showing high interest in the election (draft, anyone?), and are swinging toward Kerry.

I am something of a realist and pessimist myself, but if you take the Time poll and say they are overestimating Bush's support by 1-2 and underestimating Kerry's by 1-2, and then add the favorable break in the undecided vote, it looks something like 49 Kerry, 49 Bush, 1 Nader. That shift would still put it within the poll's margin of error.

But with the new Wolf ad, the Kerry people need to fight back like mad. Like you, I'm worried, but it's not time to give up yet--too much is at stake.

Remember the Red Sox!

Posted by: Ben at October 22, 2004 05:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think Kerry is failing. Not very happy about it, as I gave his campaign money I could have used for other purposes. I think he is running a very poor campaign.

So long, and thanks for all the fish.

Posted by: The Other Rob at October 22, 2004 05:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

bigguy, there are several things wrong with your reasoning:

1. Most importantly, the nationwide popular vote has NOTHING to do with who wins the election. Theoretically, one candidate could win one or a few states by huge margins, lose the rest of them by small margins, and lose in an electoral college landslide. Bush is ahead in Texas and quite a few of the smaller states by more than Kerry is ahead anywhere other than DC. Who cares what his popular vote margin is in states that Kerry isn't (for good reason) even contesting? If you doubt that the popular vote is meaningless, just ask Al Gore how he's enjoyed the last 4 years in the White House.

2. Many of the "battleground states" are extremely close in even the most recent polls -- so much so that when the electoral votes are finally determined, this election could easily appear to be an electoral college landslide for either Bush OR Kerry.

3. If you take the average of all the recent non-partisan polls in the "toss-up" states where Kerry is ahead (including within the margin of error), as reported on www.realclearpolitics.com , and add it to the the "solid" and "leaning" totals, Kerry is actually AHEAD in states having a majority of the electoral votes. A number of them are so close that I think it would be crazy to put too much stock in that fact, but it CERTAINLY suggests that Bush isn't so far ahead in this election that it's time to "throw in the towel" if you're for Kerry (or to throw it in if you're for Bush, for that matter).

4. I think a lot of the polling numbers are suspect this time, both because of the unprecedented number of new voters and because of the increasing number of people who have either given up their landline phone and use cellphones exclusively, or who use answering machines or voicemail to screen their calls (and who would never be left a message by a pollster to call the pollster back). It's totally unscientific, but I strongly suspect that these people are more likely to be Kerry than Bush supporters.

5. Finally, this election is so close in so many key states that it could well be decided by something as random as which parts of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida have better weather on election day. Any supporter of either candidate who is either very optimistic or very pessimistic just hasn't been paying enough attention to the details.

Posted by: gary at October 22, 2004 05:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

So close in the polls, but we're looking good in Ohio. Gallup being ahead 13 for Bush in 2000 shows where they're coming from; after all, the director of Gallup is a fundamentalist Republican. Any advantage in the undecideds Bush might have from being a "War president" will be MORE than cancelled out by two factors: undecides report being uneasy about Iraq and the deception; and 2. Democrats have an advantage in new registration, youth vote, and enthusiasm to vote against Bush/for Kerry. So if this looks like a typical election, the undecideds should go Kerry's way. The battelground states seem to be tied, and I would say it'll be a photo finish except for the good numbers from Ohio (assuming Kerry keeps most of the upper midwest.)

Way to go Jesse! By the way, where do pro-wrestling fans lean? I heard there's a "smackdown your vote" effort to GOTV.

Posted by: Marc Cittone at October 22, 2004 06:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Its important to remember that the statewide polls are generally a lot better for Kerry than the nationwide ones.

Think about this too -- Kerry is probably going to beat Bush in NY by around 15-18 pts rather than 30 points as Gore did solely because of 9/11. Given that New York account sfor around 6% of the US population, that alone would account for a point or so of the difference.

Ohio, which looked out of reach just a few weeks back looks like a slight Kerry lead. fL, which looked solid for Bush, is now a slight Bush lead. PA, was always a slight Kerrry lead, and it remains that. NH looks slight Kerry, as does MN. Wisconsin and NM look like tossups. Only Iowa looks to be in the Bush camp strongly. NJ is fluctuating, but it looks good for Kerry so far.

So Kerry still has a pretty good chance of winning. I continue to believe that the Mary Cheney non-issue cost him around a point or so of support, but I think at this point everything boils down to GOTV in the battleground states. The only way Kerry will lose for sure is if people start throwing in the towel.

Posted by: erg at October 22, 2004 06:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

the time poll had kerry tied with woman at 46%.if this doesn`t change he can`t win no matter how close it is in the battleground states.hard to figure these polls, most polls still show kerry up with woman but bush is going to make this all about terror and he has scared the hell out of suburban woman.
if the time poll is accurate kerry will lose.i guess in about a week we will know more!

Posted by: joel at October 22, 2004 07:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The Time Poll is not the gold standard, there are many, many polls out there. If you average them, Bush gets a small lead around 2 -3 points. SO it all boils down to turnout.

The Battleground states are much closer, with Kerry actually ahead in many polls (Washington Post, which has Bush by 4 shows kerry up in Battlegrounds). Kerry is up slightly in OH, dead even in FL.

So you can give up if you want to (and if you're a troll, I at least am not taking your bait). I think Kerry can definitely win, I would put his odds at even at this time, given the good chance that most undecideds were likely break for Kerry.

Those who support Kerry (or oppose Bush) have been working on this for months at least. If someone wants to "throw the towel in" (which means, what exactly ?) 1 week from the election, I have to conclude that you're unserious. Elections aren't won by people who give up easily.

Posted by: fisk at October 22, 2004 07:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

on hardball tonight chris matthews actually said the election was close and some guy from hotline was saying that bush may have a harder time reaching 270 and that`s why he is trying to compete in pa.because he knows he may lose ohio.
actually made me a little positive after the time poll.never saw such insanity in the polling. i`m starting to think whoever wins will probably get over 300 ev(kerry i think!)because the polling is missing something and it just seems that bush thinks his only chance of winning is to scare the hell out of woman.

Posted by: jim at October 22, 2004 08:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The Wolf Ad is definitely bad. It may have the potential to swing the election. I just watched Washington Week in Review, and the host said that it scared her. Duffy of Time Mag. said that these kind of ads are proven to be effective, especially in the last days of a campaign. They activate primitive survival parts of the brain, and switch some voters the way you want them to be switched. The wolves in the Ad are sitting in a pack, and then suddenly decide it's time to hunt and launch themselves together toward the camera. The Democrats, yet again, are out of their depth on how to campaign at this nasty level, and don't seem likely to catch up with the horrors the Republicans are unleashing in time. To show how clueless they are, the Dems apparently have made some very tough ads, and have shown them to a few select reporters, but don't plan to air them, according to Washington Week in Review. I've felt all along like the Kerry campaign has been pulling its punches. They've gotten better of late, but the Republicans have just raised the stakes in a massive way. I don't think the eagle and the ostrich will be enough. We need to think panthers or Bears hunting wolves with Pixar animation. But, there's not enough time or money for that. Perhaps a National Geographic-type film crew can still do something in time to dispell and make silly this advertisment, but it will be tough.

In a normal election the undecided voters will swing to the challenger. This may not be a normal election. Post 9/11 an effective fear campaign by the Republicans may be able to switch the voters who decide in the last ten days to their side instead.

Posted by: Ben at October 22, 2004 10:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

i think ben is a republican! i think the wolf ad
will backfire on bush,people will only take so much scaring.george bush has not said one reason why he should be re-elected except that if kerry wins we are all going to die.
if the stock market takes another beating next week, people will worry more abouit the economy than getting attacked.i live right near dc and i`m not afraid of terror.if it happens i can`t control it.seems to me everyone forgets bush was in charge when we got hit.

Posted by: joel at October 22, 2004 10:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

At this point in time, the polls are no more helpful than a coin toss. All you need to do is keep track of where the candidates are campaigning. If they are in a state between now and Election Day, it's got to be a state they are afraid of losing or conversely it's one they are optimistic about winning. I'm not sure who's going to win, but I can't imagine Kerry could lose the election due to the wolf ad, which I have not seen here in NC. Finally, I still believe the winner will win by around 100 EVs.

Posted by: pepe at October 22, 2004 11:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I stay in a majority Republican state, (Virginia). When the Bush people called me in 2000 and encouraged me to vote for Bush, I assured them I would even though I knew I was going to vote for Gore. What do you think some of these people are telling the pollsters now! Ha, Ha. Keep the faith!

Posted by: Barbs at October 23, 2004 12:19 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Don't worry about the "Wolf" ad, because it is a joke to most people frankly. All of the major trends go to Kerry. No matter what the polls say, unless W is pulling 53% or so the day before the election in an *average* of the polls, Kerry looks good statistically. In reality, the election can go either way, but Kerry is looking good so far.

Posted by: oddofme at October 23, 2004 01:31 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I hope the GOP spent a lot of money on the "Wolves" ad because if they did, they flushed it down the hopper. Some folks I know mistook it for a Sierra club environmental ad - if you can't hear the voiceover (and it's a bit soft, esp. if it plays when you're on the computer or otherwise distracted) it looks like a nature pic. And if you can hear the voiceover, it's still pretty pathetic.

Posted by: Conshieguy at October 23, 2004 06:48 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Personally, I thought the wolf ad was one of the weaker efforts I've ever seen. The wolves didn't even look MENACING -- they actually look kind of like your friendly dog. If anybody thinks that's the nastiest that Karl Rove has to pull from his bag of tricks over the next week, I very much hope that they're right, but I also very much doubt it.

Posted by: gary at October 23, 2004 07:58 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

They probably are dogs, not wolves. Most ads with 'wolves' normally use Alaskan Malemutes, Siberian Huskies or other dogs that look a little wolf-like for the obvious reason that wolves can't be easilt trained to follow the ad script.

I didn't think the wolves were menancing at all -- I thought they were kind of cute, but maybe thats just because I'm a dog lover. We have to refer to this as the 'doggie' ad from now on.

I'm sure there are other ads planned (maybe showing a nuke in NYC).

Posted by: erg at October 23, 2004 08:53 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

You guys are too worried. Sure there is a chance that Kerry could lose, but the odds are in his favor right now. As long as he's ahead in Ohio, which he is, he is the favorite. If he wins OH, then all that's needed to win is to hold NM, MN (can't see that he won't), and win WI (this is more of a concern but I think he will. Add to that the fact that he is dead even in FL and things are looking very good.

The media have done a very poor, perhaps biased, job of of reporting polls. NM is clearly not as close as they imply. Kerry is up by 10 there in the latest poll. Richardson has won that one for us! They say we're tied in MN but that's from the Strategic Vision poll. Zogby had us up by 11 two days earlier. The truth is probably that we're up by 2 or 3. Iowa is a major concern, but it doesn't matter if we win OH, NM, and MN. Then there's FL where our chances are at least as good as their's. Then there's the GOTV where we should hold a nice edge. A Princeton professor shows that we need only a 1% bump from the GOTV effort to have a 70% to win.

There is no reason for gloom and doom guys! It is close, but we are in a very good position.

Posted by: Randy at October 23, 2004 09:02 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

todays zogby report is pretty grim.kerry is barely up with woman and is now losing with independents .if this trend continues it may be tough to win.
i expect bush to go up about 5 in zogby and by election day kerry get it back close to even.if bush stays under 50 on election day we have a chance. it seems like 9-11 may have changed all the history about undecided voters breaking for the challenger.

Posted by: jeremy at October 23, 2004 09:53 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I can't believe how many people continue anguishing/rejoicing over polls! Folks, the swing states are all within the margin of error, so it doesn't matter who's winning PA, OH, FL, NM, WI, IA, MN, NV and so on, because in reality, they are too close to call--that's why they're still "swing" states. The polls are useless at this point in terms of predicting the election. I would anguish over them, nor would I get all overjoyed over them. I'm really just trying to take a deep breath and wait and see on Election Day, with the one "poll" that counts.

Posted by: pepe at October 23, 2004 10:08 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Guys Kerry wil carry Ohio and Florida. Let me tell you why.
1. Ohio- Kerry has made major enrodes there while Bush has stayed away. The people there are in desperate need of jobs so GOD GUNS AND GAYS can only get them so far.
2. Florida- The polls show a dead heat and the turn-out on the democratic side is going to be massive. Just look at a few facts 11% increase in democraticcounties registration rolls. 2000- no one democrate in Florida is going to ever forget it. I don't or can't imagine one democrate sitting this one out after 2000.
Finally mone on pac and ACT have done an awesome grass roots registration effort.

Posted by: godfrey at October 23, 2004 10:37 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

On election day, networks will rely on exit polls for their projections. Given the huge increase in Democratic participation in early voting (e.g. Florida), does this mean that the exit polls themselves will be heavily skewed towards the GOP? Surely, the exit pollsters know about early voting....

Posted by: science at October 23, 2004 11:32 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Pepe, what matters is not whether a poll is within the margin of error, but whether Bush is below 49%. And he is, in a lot of states. And since he is, that means he can't win those states, even if Kerry is at 42. And if Kerry has any kind of lead in any state, that means it's his.

Posted by: DavidNYC at October 23, 2004 11:55 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

HI a swing state? I don't think so, but one poll says it is close.

New poll Oct 13-18: Bush 43.3 Kerry 42.6 Undecided 12


Posted by: DFuller at October 23, 2004 12:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I do think the likelyhood that undecideds break for the challenger will not be different this election. It will benefit Kerry, but remember this really only applies to those who are undecided just before the vote (i.e. next weekend and Monday), the number of undecideds will probably get smaller as the 2nd approaches.

Posted by: oddofme at October 23, 2004 12:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Guys I just heard Bob Beckel on Fox News say that Ohio was going to go for Bush. I guess he knows more than the polls are showing or what we know.

Posted by: godfrey at October 23, 2004 12:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Poll numbers at this point mean nothing. This late in a campaign, the numbers will always fluctuate rapidly back and forth and end up giving everyone a headache. So take them lightly, please. We don't need depressed voters now.

On the "Wolves" ad, I have to say that it will not be effective this late in the campaign. Perhaps it would have worked earlier when people knew less about Kerry and were apprehensive about him, but people know more now and aren't likely to be swayed by a bunch of puppies (they kinda look like my husky, but less lazy).

Posted by: Dale at October 23, 2004 12:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

George Bush at 43% in a poll is George Bush losing. I think we've established that.

Posted by: DavidNYC at October 23, 2004 01:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This is an absolutely MUST read for all of you pessimists


It shows how the so called "gain" bush has made in national polls is really irrelevant, since those gains are in states already decided (eg CA, NY, TX) Kerry is ahead in the battleground states in every single poll.

Posted by: ed at October 23, 2004 01:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The new Newsweek poll, released Saturday afternoon, shows the race to be pretty much a dead heat. Among likely voters it's Bush 48% vs Kerry 46%. Bush's approval rating stands at 46%, which is a bad number, but how bad? 56% Think the country is heading in the wrong direction, which I hope is enough to get Bush thrown out. C. 75% of Democrats think this is the most important election of their lifetimes, while only c.30% of Republicans feel this way. I assume this works in our favor, and might possibly be the key to the race. If Democratic turnout jumps significantly, while Republican turnout jumps only slightly, that might mean quite a lot. Overall I am somewhat encouraged by this poll, which shows that as of a day or so ago there was no collapse in Kerry's support. I think Kerry needs to go on the offense on national security on the last few days.

Posted by: Ben at October 23, 2004 02:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Related to that Honolulu Advertiser poll - Posted by DFuller ...

> http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2004/Oct/23/ln/ln05p.html

Are those folks drinking too much pineapple juice and smoking crack?

Now please note in the body of the article it reads "statewide"

> "The Hawai'i Poll, taken among 600 likely voters statewide between
> Oct. 13 and Monday, had Bush at 43.3 percent and Kerry at 42.6 percent.
> The margin of error was 4 percentage points."

YET in both of the sidebars it reads:

> "The survey of 600 O'ahu registered voters was conducted
> Oct. 13-18, by Ward Research, Inc. of Honolulu. The MoE
> is 4 percentage points."

O'ahu is but one island of the state... Now has the poll been weighted properly to take into consideration the voting citizens on the outer islands who are 3-1 DEM to GOP ?

Oh well... Maybe someone wishes to take the time and contact those folks at Ward Research. Here's the email address: wrstaff@wardresearch.com

And with my personal knowledge of the folks in Hawai'i - those 12% that don't know/refused most likely were really saying; "It's none of your damn business how I will vote!"

"Data Mining" anyone? Most reasonable folks don't wish to get on a no-fly TSA watch list when stuck in the middle of the Pacific Ocean... It's a long sail in every direction.


Posted by: Larry the Duck at October 23, 2004 03:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

now how can time show a 5 point bush lead and
newsweek show a tie? very strange. also bush approval is nuts too. newsweek 46%
time 53%
cbs 44%
rasmussen 54%
pew 49%

who do you believe.i suppose it is possible kerry will win the ec and lose pv.that would be a hoot.anyway i believe the day of the election people will be expecting a bush win and the media may look pretty surprised when it`s over.i still think the winner may get over 300 ev , i just can`t figure out if it`s bush or kerry!

Posted by: joel at October 23, 2004 04:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I wonder if the media's constant talk about Bush's projected win will depress turnout for him. Perhaps they (his base) will believe that they don't need to go vote because of the belief that Bush has it in the bag, and wake up on November 3 and find out that Bush got slammed in the EC, with Kerry getting over 300. That would be the sweetest outcome. Don't know the odds of it happening, but it would still be awesome.

Posted by: Dale at October 23, 2004 04:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I was talking with some friends at dinner this evening, and we started talking about the election. The majority at my table (19 people) don't believe that we won't know the winner until sometime well after November 3rd. What do y'all think will be the earliest we can expect to know who the winner is? I think we'll know on November 3rd. Am I in the minority here, too?

Posted by: pepe at October 24, 2004 12:25 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment