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Monday, October 18, 2004
Predictions, Part 1
Posted by DavidNYCThis is where things start getting fun: prediction-time. Here's the two-part question I'll pose this for this thread:
Which five Bush in 2000 states are most likely to go blue, and which five Gore states are most likely to turn red?
Post your predictions in the comments below, in order from most likely to switch to least likely.
(Thanks to bigguy for the suggestion.)
UPDATE: For some odd reason, the comments link to this thread was broken. I re-posted this entry, and the comments look like they're working just fine now.
Posted at 11:20 AM in General | Technorati
Comments
Top candidates to switch:
RED to BLUE
New Hampshire
Ohio
Florida (not sure this counts as switch)
Nevada
Colorado
West Virginia
BLUE to RED
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Iowa
Minnesota
Florida (not sure this counts)
2nd Cong District in Maine
Posted by: Ben Brackley at October 18, 2004 11:33 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Don't the colors switch every four years? Because I believe the Dems are red and Reps blue this year. Not that it's relevant.
Top five Bush '00 states to switch:
1. New Hampshire
2. Florida
3. Ohio
4. Nevada
5. Colorado
Top five Gore states to switch:
1. New Mexico
2. Maine
3. New Jersey
4. Michigan
5. Pennsylvania
Doesn't mean they will switch, but they'd be the most likely.
Posted by: Dale at October 18, 2004 11:34 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Top five red states likely to switch:
1. New Hampshire
2. Ohio
3. Nevada
4. Florida
5. Arkansas
Top five blue states likely to switch:
1. Wisconsin
2. New Mexico
3. Minnesota
4. Iowa
5. Maine
Posted by: Mark at October 18, 2004 11:40 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Red to Blue (in order of possibility of turning blue)
1. New Hampshire
2. Ohio
3. Florida
4. Nevada
5. Arkansas
Blue to Red (in order of possibility of turing rd)
1. Wisconsin
2. Iowa
3. Minnesota
4. Pennsylvania
5. New Mexico
I think the best shot of the ten is New Hampshire turning blue.
Posted by: Peter at October 18, 2004 11:49 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Top 5 Red switching to Blue:
NH
NEV
FLA
MO
OH
Top 5 Blue to Red:
NM
ME (1EV)
WI
IA
NJ
Posted by: Pat at October 18, 2004 11:52 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Based on information over the last months:
Gore 2000 states likely to go to Bush: Maine 2nd District. Maybe WI also. That's about it.
Bush 2000 states likely to go to Kerry: NH, OH. Maybe FL, MO, NV.
Posted by: Sam Wang at October 18, 2004 11:55 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Red to Blue:
New Hampshire
Ohio
Florida
Nevada
Colorado
Blue to Red:
Iowa
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Maine's 1 EV
Minnesota
Posted by: Evan at October 18, 2004 11:56 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Red to Blue:
New Hampshire
Ohio
Florida
Nevada
West Virginia
Blue to Red:
Wisconsin
Iowa
Minnesota
New Mexico
Pennsylvania
Posted by: Jocko at October 18, 2004 12:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Red to Blue
1. NH
2. FL
3. OH
4. NV
5. VA
Blue to Red
1. IA
2. WI
3. NM
4. MN
5. OR
Posted by: Jake at October 18, 2004 12:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Blue to red (the lowest number being the most likely):
1. New Mexico
2. Iowa
3. Wisconsin
4. Pennsylvania (yikes!)
5. Minnesota
Red to blue (again, lowest being most likely)
1. New Hampshire
2. Ohio
3. Colorado
4. Florida
5. Arkansas
Posted by: Paul at October 18, 2004 12:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Rep to Dem:
New Hampshire
Florida
Ohio
Nevada
Colorado
(Arkansas, Virginia, Arizona)
Dem to Rep:
Iowa
Wisconsin
Minnesota
New Mexico
Pennsylvania
(Maine, Michigan)
This is quite a soothing exercise in that I truly feel there's way more of a chance of Colorado going our way than Minnesota shifting their way. In some ways it's just a hunch, but I have a strong feeling New Mexico and Pennsylvania will be much less close than people think and polls show.
Posted by: thurst at October 18, 2004 12:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
R to B
NH
CO (4 votes)
B to R
ME (1 vote)
Posted by: Poll Chaser at October 18, 2004 12:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Red to Blue, in order of probability
New Hampshire
Florida
Ohio
Colorado
Nevada
Blue to Red, in order of probability
Wisconsin
Iowa
Pennsylvania
Maine
Oregon
Posted by: tyronen at October 18, 2004 12:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
To Bush:
Iowa
New Mexico
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Maine
To Kerry:
Florida
Ohio
New Hampshire
Nevada
Colorado
Posted by: willis at October 18, 2004 12:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Top 5 red to blue:
1. New Hampshire
2. Nevada
3. Florida
I do not see any others switching.
Top 5 blue to red:
1. Wisconsin
2. Iowa
3. New Mexico
4. Pensylvania
5. New Jersey
Posted by: Eddie81 at October 18, 2004 12:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
From Republican to Democrat:
1. New Hampshire (Bush in dire peril)
2. Ohio (toss up)
3. Florida (toss up)
4. Nevada (slight edge Bush)
5. Missouri (close but if Bush loses here, the dam will burst)
From Dem to Republican
1. Wisconsin (toss up)
2. Iowa (toss up)
3. New Mexico (slight edge Kerry)
4. Minnesota (slight edge Kerry)
5. Oregon (edge Kerry)
Watch out also for Maine's Northern congressional District's one electoral vote which would place ahead of New Mexico and behind Iowa in flip-ability.
Posted by: Keith Brekhus at October 18, 2004 12:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
R to D
New Hampshire
Florida
Nevada
Ohio
Colorado
D to R
Wisconsin
Iowa
New Mexico
Maine
Pennsylvania
Posted by: Tom at October 18, 2004 01:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Top 5 Red -> Blue:
1. New Hampshire (the most likely)
2. Florida (very likely)
3. Nevada (very likely)
4. Ohio (likely)
5. Arkansas (likely)
Top 5 Blue -> Red:
1. Wisconsin (the most likely)
2. Iowa (likely)
3. Oregon (probably)
4. New Mexico (probably)
5. Minnesota (maybe)
Overall I think Kerry will take a lot of red States, and Bush has only the chance of taking Wisconsin. We��ll see what happens ...
Posted by: Roland Lemberger at October 18, 2004 01:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Red to Blue
1. New Hampshire (I'm nearly certain)
2. Ohio (Looking better)
3. Florida (Who the hell knows!)
4. Nevada (I doubt it)
5. West Virginia (Very unlikely)
Summary: Definately NH, and Ohio is really in play. Florida's a coin toss, Nevada is a glimmer but West Virginia would require a huge shift in public sentiment.
Blue to Red
1. Iowa (Bad feeling)
2. New Mexico (We need huge turnout)
3. Wisconsin (Please don't leave us!)
4. Pennsylvania (I doubt it)
5. Minnesota (Very Unlikely)
Summary: I think Iowa and NM could blow away with the slightest breeze. With Wisconsin, my heart says "NO!" but my mind is saying saying "Why did you leave us! We loved you so much!" I don't believe for more than a half second that Penn will flip and there's no chance for Minn to go red.
I'm glad Thurst and Roland are feeling so good. But my stomach is filled with vomiting butterflies.
Posted by: Ken at October 18, 2004 01:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Red to Blue states: (in order of probability)
1. New Hampshire (in the bag)
2. Ohio
3. Florida
4. Nevada
5. Colorado (some EVs or all, depending on referendum outcome)
Blue to Red States:
1) Iowa
2) Wisconsin
3) Maine CD-2
4) New Mexico
5) Minnesota
Posted by: ctd72 at October 18, 2004 02:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
1. OH
2. NH
3. FL
4. CO
5. NV
1. WI
2. IA
3. OR
4. MN
5. ME
Posted by: PAVoter at October 18, 2004 02:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Red to Blue:
New Hampshire
Ohio
Colorado
West Virginia
Florida
Blue to Red:
Maine 2nd
Wisconsin
Iowa
Maine at-large
Pennsylvania (my current residence, :-( )
Maine 1st
Minnesota (my home state, :-( )
(I included a couple extra because of the separate Maine EVs.)
Posted by: Benjamin Schak at October 18, 2004 03:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Five most likely to switch from Bush
NH
FL
NV
MO
AZ
Five mostly likely to switch to Bush (although it's looking less likely)
IA
NM
WI
OR
MN
Posted by: Mo at October 18, 2004 03:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Blue to Red:
1) FL - Running very close again. Jeb did a great job in 2000 disenfranchising Democratic voters. He is still in charge and will continue to lie, cheat, and steal to help his brother steal FL.
2) WI - Starting to look a little better.
3) 1 EV in ME.
4) NM - I haven't seen any recent polls here.
5) IA - Getting stronger here but it will be tight.
Red to Blue
1) NH - It looks very tight here.
2) FL - See Blue to Red.
3) OH - My biggest concern is undecided voters typically break towards their party. More Republicans mean more will break to Bush.
4) NV ��� I see this more likely in 2008 than 2004.
5) CO ��� See NV.
Posted by: DFuller at October 18, 2004 03:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Blue to Red:
1. Wisconsin
2. Iowa
3. New Mexico
4. Minnesota
5. Maine - 1
Red to Blue:
1. New Hampshire
2. Florida
3. Ohio
4. Colorado
5. Arkansas
This is a great exercise -- while Kerry has realistic possibilities beyond the list of 5 (NV, MO, WV), I really can't see Bush taking MN, NM, or even IA. The race remains Kerry's to lose.
Posted by: JoshR at October 18, 2004 05:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Most likely Blue to Red:
1) Wisconsin
2) Maine CD 2
3) Iowa
4) Minnesota
5) New Mexico
Most likely Red to Blue:
1) New Hampshire
2) Ohio
3) Nevada
4) Florida
5) West Virginia
Overall Prediction. As well as keeping all Gore states, Kerry picks up NH, OH, NV, FL, WV, MO, AR. WI is the closest state in the nation, with Kerry winning by 179 votes. VA is second closest, with Bush winning by 3,568. Third closest is MO, a Kerry victory by only 7,391. High dem turnout in research triangle area of NC amounts to a Kerry loss by 1.4% Kerry 347, Bush 191, if my calculations are correct.
Posted by: Demomatt at October 18, 2004 05:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
For those interested, I've posted my latest (10/18) survey of 62 Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast sites HERE.
Executive summary: The gap between Bush and Kerry continued to close, but with less speed than last week, with Bush's 50 vote lead of 2 weeks ago now down to about 10 votes. Kerry stayed where he was, at 247 to 249 votes, but Bush lost 5 or 6 votes, landing at 256 to 260 votes. About equal numbers of sites (36 and 37) showed Bush and Kerry leading or ahead, but more sites showed Bush with over 270 votes (24) than did Kerry (17). Neither candidate averaged enough votes to be the clear winner at this point.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at October 18, 2004 05:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Most likely to go from red to BLUE (one being the most likely, five the least likely):
1. NH (if Kerry loses NH it will be a LONG night)
2. NV (thanks to Yucca Mt.)
3. FL (a toss up)
4. OH (with one of the worst economies in the nation under Bush, this state should be Kerry's by a landslide, but it's not. Don't count on OH, as Buckeyes seem to not like Kerry a great deal if they are willing to even THINK about another 4 years of Bush).
5. AR (even less likely than OH, but if Clinton can campaign even a little there, it will tighten the race up in this very poor state).
Most like to go from Blue to RED (one being the most likely, five being the least likely):
1. WI (Kiss the Badger State goodbye).
2. IA (Barely went Gore in 2000, looks like it will barely go Bush this time around).
3. NM and ME (toss ups).
5. NJ and PA (will be closer than a lot of people think--especially if they have 9/11 on their minds).
Posted by: pepe at October 18, 2004 06:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Bush to Kerry
New Hampshire
Ohio
Florida
Colorado
Nevada
Gore to Bush
Iowa
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Pennsylvania
Minnesota
Posted by: David Trinh at October 18, 2004 06:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Swing states according to MSNBC.com: Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Umm... Colorado, Missouri, and Arkansas are not in play, but Oregon and Pennsylvania are? Right.
Also, pepe, what makes you so sure Wisconsin goes red? It's looking pretty good to me...
Posted by: JoshR at October 18, 2004 06:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Based on polls and what I read in posts here from people who actually live in the upper Midwest, there's not much for a Democrat to be optimistic about in that neck of the woods. The upper Midwest is going throught a historic transformation towards the GOP, which clearly revealed itself in the last election, where Gore only squeaked out victories in MN, WI, and IA. Current polls have shown that what these posters are expressing here is valid. It won't take much for these three states to swing to Bush this year--especially if this is a long-term trend in the making, just like what we're seeing in WV.
Fortunately, there may be a long-term trend in the making for the Democrats in the SW and NH, so losing IA, MN and WI is not as disasterous as it otherwise might be.
Posted by: pepe at October 18, 2004 07:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Pepe has to be one of the biggest pessimists in the world. Certainly he is the biggest pessimist on this board.
My rankings:
Bush to Kerry
New Hampshire (highly likely)
Florida (coin flip)
Ohio (probably Bush, but high turnout could swing it)
Nevada (likely Bush, but very close)
Missouri (against all reasoning except that below)
Gore to Bush
Wisconsin (worrisome, but probably Kerry's)
Iowa (likely Kerry's, but up for grabs)
Pa. (unlikely to switch)
New Mex. (Kerry's by more than Gore in 2000)
Main D-2 (probably safe)
Why do I put Missouri in the top five possibilities for Kerry? Because MO amost always votes for the winner!!!
Posted by: Randy at October 18, 2004 08:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Pessimist or realist? It's like those poor deluded Boston Red Sox fans. Some of them have convinced themselves that they're bound to beat the Yankees this year. Their reasoning? Since no team has ever come back from being down 0 and 3 in a League Championship Series, they figure they're due to be the first team to do it. Yeah. Right. I'm not making this up, either. I heard them saying this on an interview this morning.
Posted by: pepe at October 18, 2004 08:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
"Pepe has to be one of the biggest pessimists in the world. Certainly he is the biggest pessimist on this board."
Yeah, and it's just a great time time to be a pessimist. You know, I think this is why the other side has been so successful the past few election cycles. They are breeding a "Yes we can" attitude amongst the grass-roots. Meanwhile, good ole pepe here just seems to know the right thing to say to kill a bit of positive thinking. BTW, good timing Pepe. Nothing like a bit of deflation to fire up the troops for Kerry. Brilliant!!!!!
Posted by: sick_of_pepe at October 18, 2004 09:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Oh yeah, and.............GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO RED SOX!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: sick_of_pepe at October 18, 2004 09:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Red to Blue:
1. New Hampshire
2. Ohio
3. Nevada
4. Florida
5. West Virginia
Blue to Red:
1. Wisconsin
2. Iowa
3. New Mexico
4. Pennsylvania
5. Maine (2nd district-1EV)
Posted by: Allan at October 18, 2004 09:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Red to Blue:
- New Hampshire
- Nevada
- Florida
- Arkansas
- Ohio
Blue to Red:
- Iowa
- New Mexico
- Wisconsin
- Pennsylvania
- Maine
Posted by: rob at October 18, 2004 09:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Pepe's right. Being realistic does not make you a pessimist, it means you have your head on straight. Which is more than we can say about the Shrub occupying the White House. The fact is the upper Midwest will be lost to the Democrats probably in the next fifteen years, if not sooner. But as that is happening, Florida, Georgia, NC, Virginia, and (dare I say it) Texas are becoming more moderate, making the South attainable for us soon. And the Southwest looks to yield good harvests for us in the future. So be realistic, because the smart ones always win.
Posted by: Dale at October 18, 2004 09:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Unlike Bush, I've never been a cheerleader. I try to see things as they actually are, whether it's sports or politics. Too many people treat politics like they do their favorite teams, which leads to bias and unfounded optimism. I don't "root" for politicians, not even the ones I support. This isn't a baseball game, it's an election campaign. Yes, I want Kerry to win, but I'm not going to blindly root for him or any other candidate. Part of the problem with politics in this country is that people blur sports and politics, which I think is dangerous.
And for the record, I'm not saying Kerry CAN'T win this election. I'm just saying that he has an uphill climb. Think about it. For as much as he out-performed Bush in the debates overall, he didn't get much of a lift in the polls. In fact, the final debate was barely over than all everyone was talking about was his Mary Cheney comment and Bush's standing began to go up in the polls. It's a good thing Kerry "won" those debates or he'd be off the radar at this point. Ohio's economy has been abysmal under 4 years of Bush--and yet that state is hardly rushing to Kerry and his message of hope. Am I making all this up? I don't think so. I just leave my pompoms in the closet and read lots of newspapers, political blogs, and watch a lot of news and news shows to keep myself informed.
Posted by: pepe at October 18, 2004 09:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Dale, you're absolutely right about some Southern states becoming more purple and even blue over the next decade or so. And I'm happy to say that NC is definitely one of them. This is a gorgeous state blessed with a great climate, variety of scenery and plenty of great restaurants and cultural amenities. A lot of Yankees discover all of this and more when they visit, and next thing you know, they wind up moving here, just like I did! So if you're a liberal Yankee, come on down and stay!
Posted by: pepe at October 18, 2004 09:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
"For as much as he out-performed Bush in the debates overall, he didn't get much of a lift in the polls. In fact, the final debate was barely over than all everyone was talking about was his Mary Cheney comment and Bush's standing began to go up in the polls. It's a good thing Kerry "won" those debates or he'd be off the radar at this point. Ohio's economy has been abysmal under 4 years of Bush--and yet that state is hardly rushing to Kerry and his message of hope. Am I making all this up? I don't think so. I just leave my pompoms in the closet and read lots of newspapers, political blogs, and watch a lot of news and news shows to keep myself informed."
Where should I start. You are pretty much admitting in this statement that the established corporate media is clearly leading the cheerleading for Bush. Therefore, I believe that the grass-roots bears an even greater responsibilty to lead the cheerleading for Kerry. If not us, who? The so called objective "news" organizations you seem to value so much? Uh-uh My suggestion to you is dust off the old pom-poms.
Posted by: sick_of_pepe at October 18, 2004 09:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The top five to change Red To Blue (in order of probability:
1) New Hampshire
2) Ohio
3) Florida
4) Nevada
5) Arkansas
Top Five Blue To Red:
1) New Mexico
2) Wisconsin
3) Minnesota
4) New Jersey (please no)
5) Pennsylvania (please not both)
If it were to go this way, it would be a wash electorally, no? I think Ia. will come through for Kerry in the end. Starting to worry about Oregon though.
What's the word on BC (not Bush-Cheney, but Bill Clinton)? His best value I think is juicing the turnout in minority areas in Philadelphia, Miami, Newark, etc., as well as the obvious help he could be in Arkansas. I think that would really help Kerry, who hasn't generated the enthusiasm with African-Americans that Gore did in 2000. With him on the trail in St. Louis, it might even put Missouri in Kerry's grasp. Is he going to be able to do anything at all? Teleconferencing a big hall at least?
Posted by: stever at October 18, 2004 10:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Realistically, in order,
Bush to Kerry:
OHIO
NH
FLORIDA
Kerry to Bush:
NONE
Posted by: Shar at October 18, 2004 10:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
2000 Bush to 2004 Kerry
Ohio
New Hampshire
Colorado
Nevada
Arkansas
2000 Gore to 2004 Bush
Wisconsin
Iowa
New Mexico
Pennsylvania
Oregon
Posted by: Gregg at October 18, 2004 10:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
It is perfectly reasonable to expect an EXACT REPEAT of 2000. There is not a single state that is leaning strongly for a switch. That being said, I think it possible for Kerry to pick up:
1. NH (The lean may not be strong, but it's there)
2. OH (Tossup)
3. FL (Shenanigans Aside, it would be a tossup)
4. WV (Not likely)
5. NV (Not likely)
Bush shouldn't pick up anything, but Kerry has not been strong enough in the Midwest. It's a travesty really, but he seems to be making a modest recovery. Bush may take:
1. FL (tossup)
2. IA (tossup)
3. WI (tossup)
4. ME (District 2)
4. PA (Not likely)
It is conceivable that the map will look the same as 2000 except for NH and ME-CD2. This would have been enough for Gore, but with the new electoral college distribution, it wouldn't be enough for Kerry. Kerry just needs to keep the rest of Gore's states and pick up one more. CO, MO and AR are pipe dreams. Ohio or Florida is the whole gig; Kerry just needs one of them.
Posted by: Joe at October 18, 2004 11:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Red to Blue:
Texas
Florida (eh.)
Ohio
North Carolina
Georgia
Blue to Red:
none
It's been a long Monday, so can't I dream a little?
Posted by: osterizer at October 18, 2004 11:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Most likely to go Red to Blue:
1) NH
2) OH
3) FL
4) CO
5) MO
Most likely to go Blue to Red:
1) WI
2) NM
3) PA
4) NJ
5) MN
I've worked the numbers and by my count, if Kerry wins Ohio, he gets to 284. If he doesn't win OH, then he has to win Colorado or Missouri or Arkansas. But that's just my math (I'm giving Bush Florida in this count).
Posted by: David R. Mark at October 19, 2004 12:20 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Red to Blue
1. New Hampshire - time to join the rest of the North Eastern fold
2. Florida - still the big prize
3. Nevada - the state Kerry should win if the south west really is trending democratic
4. Ohio - the swing state most talked about
5. Missouri - the sort of state the Democrats should win with two big metro areas
Blue to Red
1. Wisconsin - the polls just haven't looked good this year
2. Iowa - of all the states Gore won by a whisker, this one had the lowest Nader vote, i.e. less buffer for Kerry
3. New Mexico - a true toss-up in 2000. Kinda like a bizzaro-New Hampshire: surrounded by red states
4. Pennsylvania - this could be Bush's knock out punch
5. Minnesota - apparently trending Republican like its mid-western neighbours
Posted by: anon at October 19, 2004 01:12 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Gore 2000 to Bush 2004
1) IA (because Iowa gets it wrong, of late)
2) NM (because of the bases)
3) WI ? (all the marbles could be here)
Bush 2000 to Kerry 2004:
1) NH (Kerry's got it)
2) OH (because of the economy, the war, and Ohio gets it right)
3) FL ? (unlikely due to vote counting problems)
In the final days of the 2000 campaign, the Gore campaign concentrated their dwindling funds on Florida and not Ohio. That move can now be assessed as either a terrible mistake or a brilliant play that did not pan out due to vote counting problems. Now in 2004, the ripe fruit of Florida is again tempting the Democratic nominee. I say to Senator Kerry don't let your time in the sunshine come at the expense of the gray Midwest. Go get Ohio, and shore up Wisconsin. Let Edwards lead the way for the Florida longshot.
This may be a question deserving of another thread: Where should Kerry concentrate his efforts in the last two weeks?
Posted by: Matchew at October 19, 2004 01:15 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Flippable to Kerry:
1. NH
2. OH
3. WV
4. NV
5. FL
Flippable to Bush:
1. IA
2. WI
3. NM
4. MN
5. ME
Posted by: Jerome at October 19, 2004 01:39 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Not that I've got anything particularly new to contribute to the discussion, but here you go:
Rep to Dem (in order of likelihood):
New Hampshire (definitely.)
Florida (complete toss-up; why do they even bother polling there anymore??)
Nevada (either this election or the next it'll go dem, slight bush edge right now though)
Ohio (though I'm not optimistic on this one)
Colorado (our only chance is picking up ballot initiative #36)
And Arkansas, I wish...if only kerry had spent more time and money there...
Dem to Rep (in likelihood):
Iowa
Wisconsin (I don't see us getting both IA and WI; they're too close and i think we can at most hope for one- probably WI. Again, why do they keep bother polling there? Not that I don't follow them rapidly...)
Florida (of course it counts.)
Minnesota (doubt it though)
New Mexico (strongly doubt it though)
my two cents.
Posted by: willt at October 19, 2004 04:44 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Top five red states likely to switch:
1. New Hampshire
2. Ohio
3. Florida
4. Nevada
5. Colorado
Top five blue states likely to switch:
1. New Mexico
2. Wisconsin
3. Iowa
4. Minnesota
5. Pennsylvania
Posted by: Yitbos96bb at October 19, 2004 10:36 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Not long ago DavidNYC posted a great article on the 48% rule. In short, it says that an incumbant president will lose if he goes in at
If the election was tomorrow and we consider today's average of several recent polls, here's what we get in the swing states:
Likely Bush wins
AZ (>50)
AR (49.7)
CO (49.1)
LA (51.5)
MO (49, but may be dropping)
MC (51)
VA (50)
Likely Kerry wins
FL (47, but high variability)
IA (47)
ME (47)
MI (44)
MN (
NH (
NJ (
NM (47)
OH (48.1, includes an outlying Strategic Vision poll)
OR (44)
PA (45.4)
WA (44)
WI (45.5)
Toss-up state
NV (48.5)
Conclusions:
1.) There may be a long term trend toward red in the upper midwest, but we're probably safe there this year.
2.) If Kerry holds all his states, he wins. The most likely losses would be FL (because of likely shenanigans by Jeb and his band of cheaters) or OH (because it is a republican state).
3.) Kerry must win either FL or OH to win. Bush must win both. Throw out the polls in FL. They are all over the place. It's not even possible to know if it's tied, leaning Kerry or leaning Bush, much less to make an informed prediction. Ohio was like that earlier, but seems to have stablized now at about a tie. I like our prospects in OH if we go in tied. Voter registration is way up there. There will be a big GOTV effort on election day. The economic issues there favor us. It's all about OH, IMHO.
Posted by: Randy at October 19, 2004 10:56 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Where Kerry should spend the bulk of his war chest in the next two weeks:
1) FL - Kerry has been on an upswing in FL as of late. He has gone from about 5 points down to even in the last couple weeks. Of course, he needs to win by at least 3 percent in FL to counteract the Jeb factor. Getting these 27 EV's can put a nail into Junior's coffin.
2) OH - Backup in case he loses FL. Winning OH is still just about a 30% chance, but you can't ignore the 20 EVs.
3) WI - This state will be very tight. Kerry has been on a upswing as of late but WI is still too close to call.
4) PA - Although an 80% chance of going Kerry's way, he must make certain he gets these 21 EVs. A win in FL would be nullified by a loss in PA.
5) IA, NM - Very close states that Kerry should be able to take. He can not ignore them though.
6) CO, NV - If Kerry loses FL & OH, he will need NH + CO or NV + CO to win.
7) MO - This race has tightened up lately. I do not understand why Kerry has left MO. Wining MO plus all the Kerry states = a Kerry White House.
Posted by: DFuller at October 19, 2004 11:23 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
For the short term, I'm glad Randy brought up the
For the long term, I think the shifts in some southern and southwestern states is a good balance to our fears about changes in the midwest. On top of that, I think the shift in the upper midwest is real but exagerated, especially for Minnesota.
Overall however, it is only Nov 2nd we need to be truley concerned about right now. Wisconson may go red for the next two decades and Nevada may go blue, but with all the stress Nov 2nd is causing me, I think I will save that debate for Nov 3rd.
Posted by: Ken at October 19, 2004 12:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Red to Blue:
1. Florida
2. Ohio
3. Nevada
4. New Hampshire
5. Arkansas
And, you heard it here first, SC is no lead pipe cinch for the Republicans.
Blue to Red:
1. Wisconsin
2. Iowa
3. Minnesota
4. New Mexico
5. Maine
Posted by: Advocut at October 19, 2004 04:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
turning blue (to Kerry)
Nevada
Ohio
Missouri (unlikely)
New Hampshire
Florida (unlikely)
turning red (to Bush)
Iowa
Wisconsin
Minnesota
New Mexico (unlikely)
Pennsylvania (unlikely)
Posted by: the other dave at October 19, 2004 04:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I tallied the above and here are the states most often mentioned in our top five lists:
Most likely to swing from RED to BLUE in 2004:
1. NH with 43 votes
tied for #2 are OH and FL with 41 votes each
4. NV with 35 votes
5. CO with 19 votes
Most likely to swing from BLUE to RED in 2004:
1. WI with 40 votes
2. IA with 37 votes
3. NM with 34 votes
4. MN with 30 votes
5. PA with 22 votes
��Muy interesante!
Posted by: pepe at October 19, 2004 05:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
This is just what I think:
Red to blue:
1. New Hampshire
2. Florida
3. Ohio
4. Nevada
5. Colorado
Blue to red:
1. Wisconsin
2. Iowa
3. New Mexico
4. Maine-District two
5. Minnesota or Pennslyvania
Posted by: drew at October 19, 2004 08:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
A few weeks ago I did a quickie numbers-crunch on this same topic (for my own reassurance) using simple extrapolation of state-by-state trends since 1988 and found pretty much the same thing that we're all saying. The numbers represent the expected percentages in a head-to-head Kerry/Bush matchup, without considering third parties.
Red to Blue
Florida (53.7 K/46.3 B)
New Hampshire (53.5 K/46.5 B)
Nevada (51.1 K/48.9 B)
Tennessee (50.1 K/49.9 B) *
Ohio (49.6 K/50.4 B)
Arizona (49.2 K/50.8 B)
Blue to Red
Iowa (48.5 K/51.5 B)
Oregon (49.5 K/50.5 B) *
Wisconsin (49.5 K/50.5 B)
Minnesota (50.4 K/49.6 B)
New Mexico (50.8 K/49.2 B)
Pennsylvania (53.2 K/46.8 B)
Net result is K picks up FL, NH, NV, and TN, while losing IA, OR, and WI, winning the EV 283/255.
However, Tennessee and Oregon don't pass the smell test for me based on current polling, so I would throw them out (which is why I included 6 of each). Gore got an unrealistically high percentage in TN in 2000 for ostensibly being a favorite son, while Gore got an unrealistically low percentage in OR in 2000 because of the Nader factor. If only FL, NH, NV, IA, and WI flip, the EV is still 279/259.
Methodology: For each state, calculate the percentage of the head-to-head vote (meaning no Perot or Nader) gotten by Dukakis in 88, Clinton in 92 and 96, and Gore in 00. Average the jump from 88 to 92, the jump (or drop) from 92 to 96, and the drop from 96 to 00. Add the average movement to Gore's percentage in 2000. (For instance, in Florida, Dukakis got 38.8%, Clinton got 48.8% in 92 and 53.2 in 96, and Gore got 50.0%. Average 10, 4.4, and -3.2, which is 3.7. Add that to 50.0, for a total of 53.7). Voila... you've proven absolutely nothing, but have a lot of impressive-looking numbers to back it up.
Posted by: crazy vaclav at October 19, 2004 09:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
states from Bush to kerry
1) NH
2) OH
3) WV
4) CO
5) LA - I know no one agrees with me on this one, so we will just have to wait and see
states from dems to bush
1) WI
2) IA
3) NM
4) no more, except for
5) FL, which we really won last time had votes been counted, but this time I believe they have the situation "fixed" in favor of Bush
Posted by: tom at October 20, 2004 07:06 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Red to blue:
1. New Hampshire
2. Ohio
3. Nevada
4. Colorado
5. Florida
Blue to red:
1. Maine-District two
2. Iowa
3. Minnesota
4. Wisconsin
5. New Mexico
Furthermore I expect Kerry to pick up NH and OH, and Bush to win ME2 and IA. Kerry then wins 276-262.
Posted by: Fl��vin at October 20, 2004 10:22 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Red To Blue:
1) New Hampshire
2) Ohio
3) Nevada
4) West Virginia
5) Colorado - is that spelled right?
Blue to Red:
1) Iowa
2) New Mexico
3) Wisconsin
4) Maine (as a whole, not just 2nd CD)
5) Minnesota
Posted by: Mike In Ca at October 20, 2004 07:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment