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Wednesday, October 27, 2004

Predict the Winning Map Contest!

Posted by DavidNYC

Stephen over at Race2004.net is running a great contest. All you have to do is fill out your predictions for how the electoral map will shape up this year. The winner even gets a prize - woohoo!

Dave Leip's site also has a feature where you can create a predictions map. And, as part of his Election Night Timeline, he's also created a helpful map which shows the poll closing times in each state:

Poll Closing Times

Posted at 07:06 PM in General | Technorati


What the... Indiana has the earliest closing time? Figures. Probably something to do with our Indiana Imperial Time Zone? So if they close at 6pm Eastern in Indiana, what time is that, 6pm in Indy? Or 5? Or December? We can't tell time in this state at all. If they printed that map in the local paper then that perennial resolution to ask congress to put us in an actual time zone might actually stand a chance of passing.

By the way, I'm don't think it was mentioned here, but with the final appeal resolved, the Nader factor is finalized. He's on the ballot in 35 states, but unfortunately that includes all the battleground states. So I guess the Republicans won that one.

Posted by: IndySteve at October 27, 2004 09:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Steve, you're wrong about Nader being on the ballot in all the swing states. He's not on in PA and OH, two of the most important. He's also not on in MO, VA, NC, OR, AZ, and if you are anxious, HI.

Posted by: DavidNYC at October 27, 2004 11:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I can tell that this is going to be one of those years, like 1960 and 1992, that redefines the political map. We will see now how demographics are changing. It's obvious that now there is more battleground than solid - while the media loves to harp on HI and NJ coming into play, AR, CO, VA, and NC are noticeably closer too. Also, I think NH is going to be a blue state very soon - the Democrat could easily end up in the Governor's Mansion this year, Democratic registration has grown hugely since 1990, Bush barely won it in 2000, and it now seems to be leaning toward Kerry.

It is going to be a VERY different map in 2012...I can see FL, NV, NH, CO, and AZ solid blue, with VA, NC, and GA leaning blue (I make these predictions based on the fast growth and growing diversity in the mountains and the southeast), and IA, MN, and WI solid red, with MI, OH, and PA leaning red.

Maybe we'll stop losing electoral votes soon. Wouldn't that be nice?!

Posted by: Nathaniel at October 27, 2004 11:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Speaking of Nader, if the new Humphreys Institute poll from Minnesota is any indication, Nader poses a huge problem to Kerry in my home state, pulling off 5% of the vote. At first, the 5% figure seemed overly generous, but even looking at today's Zogby Poll, the margin was only 47-44 for Kerry. That leaves 9% uncommitted to either candidate in the state. If half of those 9% end up going to Nader, it'll be virtually impossible for Kerry to win in Minnesota.

Posted by: Mark at October 28, 2004 12:08 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well, I think Nader got around 5% in MN last time, if memory serves. It was one of his best states. I still think Kerry can win even if Nader does "well" in MN.

Posted by: DavidNYC at October 28, 2004 01:00 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'll have to check this map well for my ideas about Election Day... I had earlier posited the 'ME-VA check' - the candidate is ahead who first gets ME (3 votes, Kerry) or Virginia (Bush). But now I see that Virginia closes one hour before Maine. So it's probably more fair to compare NH to VI, and ME to WV.

Posted by: Andre at October 28, 2004 07:58 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

If Bush is really only polling 44-45 percent in Minnesota then I doubt he really stands much of a chance of winning it.

My biggest hope for this election,other than the Bush losing is that all these newly registered democrats continue to vote. I would love this to be a Herbert Hoover or Jessie Ventura moment for the whole country. Something that shifts the dynamics for the long term.

Posted by: jockoj at October 28, 2004 10:03 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Guys I constantly see the internals of many of these polls showing that about half of Kerry's supporters are voting against Bush more than voting for Kerry. I think that is a good thing because that means our side will be more motivated to turn out on Tuesday.

Posted by: godfrey at October 28, 2004 11:31 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I very much doubt that Nader will take 5% in MN. No other poll shows him anywhere near that much. I guess his celing is 2%.

Recent polls in FL seem to show that Bush is slightly up (even ignoring the LA times poll, which is definitely an outlier). Kerry may need (depending on internal polls) to get back to FL and spend some time there. Or if FL looks hard in internal polls, send Edwards there and focus on WI, MN and IA. I think Kerry will get MN, and he has to get WI or IA + NM (and OH + NH) to win.

Posted by: erg at October 28, 2004 12:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I wonder if the networks will call states with split poll closings because of time zones the way they have in the past. They almost always call Indiana and Kentucky at 6:00 ET, even though a good share of voters from both states get an extra hour to vote. I doubt the outcome in Florida will be decided by 7:00 ET, and I certainly doubt the networks would call the state for either candidate before the panhandle poll closings after the GOP whining last time when they called it 10 minutes before the central time zone polls closed.

I wouldn't rule out a Kerry victory in Florida. Ohio is definitely his best chance, but Kerry is heading to the state a couple more times and it wouldn't surprise me if turnout puts Kerry over the top...even though I concede it's advantage Bush slightly. The entire Upper Midwest is a concern for me even though the numbers seem to be less scary than before in Wisconsin and Iowa. Aside from the St. Cloud State poll which oversampled Democrats, every recent poll has showed Kerry in trouble in Minnesota, and Bush gets the final word here with a rally in Minneapolis on Saturday. The Star Tribune's Democrat-leaning Minnesota Poll should be coming out by Sunday. If Kerry isn't up by at least five points in that poll, I think he'll lose here.

Posted by: Mark at October 28, 2004 12:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Mark -- Zogby has shown kerry ahead in MN recently. Rasmussen has it generally even, Strategic Vision is abuout the same (despite being an R candidate). So I believe the state is close, but Kerry will win. Ventura's endorsement will help, I think.

WI: Other than Gallup, recent polls have been better for KErry. I think he has a good chance here. IA is still an open question.

Kerry is campaiging in IA, FL and WI, but not in MN in the next 2-3 days. The good view of this is that he feels strong in MN, and wants to consolidate WI. The bad view is that he's given up on MN, and has to then take FL to win.

Posted by: erg at October 28, 2004 01:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This is slightly off topic, and forgive me if I've posted this already elsewhere on this blog (I'm getting a little punchy from short sleep):

For those interested, I've posted my latest (10/27) survey of 67 Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast sites HERE.

Executive summary: By the evidence of the trackers, the race continues to be virtually tied: Bush has 253-257 votes and Kerry has 248-254. Although one candidate or the other shows a slight edge in one category or another, neither has a clear-cut advantage.

Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at October 29, 2004 02:18 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

If those are the poll closing times, could someone tell me when, in relation to that, the results for the states will be announced? In other words, how long after the polls close are we likely to know the winner?

Thanks- I need to know when to take 'bathroom breaks' in class, and if I'll need to skip any to watch the results.

Posted by: willt at October 30, 2004 02:18 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Florida polls close at 7PM local? That has to hurt us. Our side works for a living, getting there will be tough if obstacles are being put in place.
I think we need a massive case of the blue flu on Tuesday.

Posted by: Larry at October 30, 2004 02:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Could someone here please answer the following: Let's say the polls close at 7 PM. Does that mean that at 7 PM those still in line to vote are out of luck? Or does it mean that everyone in line before 7 PM will still get to vote, regardless of how long that takes? I always vote early, so I have no idea what happens to people trying to vote at the last minute.

Posted by: pepe at October 30, 2004 03:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment