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Sunday, October 03, 2004
New Jersey, Revisited
Posted by DavidNYCResearch 2000 offers the first state poll conducted entirely after the first debate. Kerry maintains a wide lead in New Jersey (likely voters, mid-August in parens):
Kerry: 50 (52)
Bush: 42 (41)
Other/Undecided: 8 (7)
(MoE: ��4%)
The undecided figure includes two points for Nader. To be sure, R2K has always shown Kerry with wide leads in NJ, and I don't know a thing about their likely voter models. But let's not kid ourselves: As the Prospect article I linked just below makes clear, Bush would have to be polling above 50% in NJ in order to seriously threaten us here, and that's just not the case, no matter which poll you look at. The highest he's ever gotten was a lone SUSA poll that had him at 49%.
I think I'm not going to write anything further about New Jersey this election cycle, unless something totally wild happens, like the Democratic governor resigns in disgrace over a salacious extra-marital affair. Oh, wait. That did happen, and the Republicans still can't make serious headway here. Yeah, New Jersey's a safe bet.
Posted at 05:32 PM in Safe States | Technorati
Comments
It's good to know that New Jersey is definitively safe for the Democrats. I mean, I just can't see any state north of the Potomac going for Bush. It seems illogical.
By the way, any poll you hear about Bush and Kerry tied in Maryland are crap. Bush lost badly last election, and he would need an extra strength dose of Jesus to pull of that miracle. Any lifelong Marylander like myself can attest to that.
Posted by: Dale at October 3, 2004 07:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
"off", not "of". I need to take a typing class...
Posted by: Dale at October 3, 2004 07:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
And "is crap", not "are crap". Typing Tutor, here I come!
Posted by: Dale at October 3, 2004 09:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I live in NJ and I heard on the news this morning that the newspaper The Bergen Record also did a statewide poll over the weekend and Kerry was up 8 points, the same results as Research 2000. I think we will see improved poll results for Kerry across all states.
Posted by: Peter at October 4, 2004 10:53 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Peter, Research 2000 did the poll for the Bergen Record. (You can follow the link in the original post.)
Posted by: DavidNYC at October 4, 2004 11:20 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Incidentally, Research 2000's last poll was in line with then Quinipiac's results, so it may not be the case that there model favors Kerry. One day polls are generally unreliable, but this margin looks right to me.
Posted by: erg at October 4, 2004 12:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
NJ looks safe for Kerry once again, which is just the way it should be.
Any new and reliable polls from VA? I just got back from there, and the amount of Kerry support I saw was definitely encouraging.
Posted by: pepe at October 4, 2004 01:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Pepe---I'm in Virginia. All of the latest polls (all pre-debate) give Bush a 5 or 6 point lead here. But the enthusiasm level for Kerry is astounding, and voter registrations in Dem counties are way up. Given the 8 point Newsweek/Gallup swings, it could be very close here. It'll be interesting to see Zogby's numbers tomorrow (?).
Posted by: science at October 4, 2004 03:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Survey USA's new poll shows Kerry ip by 5 in NJ. They had a Bush lead of 4 last time (the only pollster so far to show a Bush lead). Looks like NJ may not be in play any more.
Posted by: erg at October 4, 2004 05:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment