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Tuesday, October 26, 2004
Colorado About-Face?
Posted by DavidNYCJust a week ago, the DNC sent out an e-mail saying they were going to "be aggressive" in Colorado. Now, via MyDD, we learn that Kerry is mostly pulling out of the state. So the Kerry campaign is pulling its ads and cancelling a visit there by the senator, but it says it will continute to send surrogates - and the DNC is claiming it will still keep flooding the airwaves.
I'm not quite sure I get this half-move. I mean, I think it's probably smart to focus on Florida and Ohio instead of Colorado - quite a few polls have shown Bush at or above 50% in CO in the last month - but why is the Kerry campaign taking a different strategy than the DNC? With one week left, this doesn't seem to be the time to spread your resources. Any thoughts on this one?
Posted at 12:19 AM in Colorado | Technorati
Comments
Colorado was always a pipe dream. Kerry would be better off spending time in Arkansas than Colorado, although at this point in the campaign, I agree that Ohio, Florida, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and New Mexico need to be the primary, and possibly only targets.
Posted by: Mark at October 26, 2004 12:31 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Pipe dream? Nonsense. Gore + Nader was within 2% of Bush in 2000. When you add in all the intangibles - Salazar reverse coattails, greater than average drop in economy, military in the Springs turning against Bush, you get an extremely close race. I look forward to proving you wrong on November 2.
Posted by: Blue the Wild Dog at October 26, 2004 02:01 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The Colorado voter initiative that will split Colorado's electoral votes is ahead in the polls - by a significant amount I believe. If it passes then the electoral votes are likely to be divided 5 to one candidate and 4 to the other. So instead of campaigning for 9 votes you are campaigning for one.
Posted by: Elisa at October 26, 2004 02:10 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kerry can't rely on Colorado for his base 270 this year because its retroactive referendum on proportional electoral voting is going to create a legal trainwreck.
We all know how well the Dems did in court LAST time. No sense in giving Scalia & Co. yet another excuse to intervene.
Posted by: Night Owl at October 26, 2004 02:27 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Where can I look at polling on that EV initiative?
Posted by: DavidNYC at October 26, 2004 03:52 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Does anyone else fear that the initiative will be largely backed by Democrats and largely opposed by Republicans?
i.e. If Kerry wins Colorado it'll probably be 5-4, and if Bush wins the state it'll probably be 9-0.
I could be wrong, but all the opposition seems to be from the Republican side.
Posted by: anon at October 26, 2004 04:35 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Hey guys, Gallup has been exposed. Now I know why Moveon pac went after them. What the hell is this cr_p. Everybody has the race at either tie or Kerry up 1 in Florida and they come out with this 8 point lead for Bush! No I think I get it their trying to either convince the Bush people to stay hoome because their up (which I doubt) or their trying to demoralize the damn democratic base that has been working their tells off the lat 2 years to get the 27 electoral votes over into the dem column. What ever it is I just pray that they count the votes down their. Were all watching...
Posted by: godfrey at October 26, 2004 04:40 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Last I heard (not even a week ago), the initiative to split CO's EVs was losing by something like 40 points. Now I read here that it's likely to pass! See why the polls are doing nothing but muddying the waters? My GUESS is that if the Kerry campaign is reducing his presence or pulling out of CO it's because their internals show it a lost cause. They will probably be competitive there, but lose in the end. It makes more sense to keep the heat on in AR, OH, WI, IA, MN, WI and FL.
Posted by: pepe at October 26, 2004 06:57 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The Colorado initiative to divide the E.V. is dead. The last pole I saw, it was down by 15. Colorado will be the surprise of the night. Our 2 universities, No Nader, a 1% gain in Dem registration, and a GOTV effort that is the best I've ever seen!
A blue marble in a sea of red!
Posted by: pollwatcher at October 26, 2004 07:03 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Colorado is a lost cause, at least this election cycle. The ballot initiative will fail most likely, and the state, despite our best efforts, is still stubbornly entrenched in the Bush camp. But come '08, who knows...
Posted by: Dale at October 26, 2004 07:57 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Amendment 36 is pretty much dead. The GOP must have been spending a lot of money to kill it in the last two weeks.
link: http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/CO041021pressen2q.pdf
Amendment 36:
10/21/04 (10/8)
Yes 55% (44%)
No 38% (45%)
Undecided 7%
Posted by: DFuller at October 26, 2004 08:55 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
My take on this is that it says more about the state of play in Ohio and Florida than it does about Colorado. The Kerry people have viewed Colorado as winnable, but probably not as winnable (or as important) than OH or FL. Not to mention, over 300,000 votes have already been cast here, and Kerry is getting lots of support from the DNC and the Ken Salazar campaign. So I think they are kind of putting Colorado on cruise control and hoping for the best.
Posted by: Colorado Luis at October 26, 2004 09:04 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I completely agree with your assessment, Colorado Luis!
Posted by: Pepe at October 26, 2004 09:17 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Sorry, I did this backwards the first time:
Amendment 36:
10/21/04 (10/8)
NO 55% (44%)
YES 38% (45%)
Undecided 7%
Posted by: DFuller at October 26, 2004 09:18 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Colorado, like Ohio, will hinge on the college age vote, and the buzz says the college kids are voting this year, mostly for Kerry, except maybe here in Texas, one of these days this big 'ol state will turn blue again. I love this site, keep the comments coming!
Posted by: RBobbitt at October 26, 2004 09:54 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
My predictions for Zogby tracking poll:
Tomorrow:
Bush 48 (-1)
Kerry 47 (+1)
Undecided 3
Why: Saturday���s 7 point Bush win (50%-43%) will drop off.
Election Day:
Bush 49
Kerry 49
Why: Two-thirds of the undecided will break for Kerry.
Posted by: DFuller at October 26, 2004 10:00 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
See if you are a Gallup likely voter:
http://usatoday.com/news/graphics/electionquiz/flash.htm
Posted by: DFuller at October 26, 2004 10:16 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Breaking news ARG Has Kerry up 3 in Florida. In line with everyone else EXCEPT GALLUP!! Gallup is a joke.
Posted by: godfrey at October 26, 2004 11:02 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kerry needs to focus on OH and FL to win. CO would be icing on the cake, but uncessary to get above 270, unless something really unexpected happened like NM, IA, WI, HI, and NH all going Republican.
Polling is much better for Kerry in OH and FL as well, he's tied to ahead in these two important states.
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 26, 2004 11:04 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The last two Zogby polls show Kerry ahead in CO, and the survey of young people (the cell phone contingent) shows that they favor Kerry by a significant margin. We've also got a tremendous GOTV effort going here.
I know, my last comment was that Colorado was probably not going for Kerry, and to be perfectly honest I'm saying this more out of hope than out of belief. But it's possible. It really is possible. And I think it's a mistake to write Colorado off - but on the other hand, Ohio and Florida have way more EVs and will make a much bigger difference.
(And I don't think 36 will pass.)
Posted by: Ilana at October 26, 2004 11:22 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Zogby Interactive polls are probably as worthless as Gallup polls. Both are way outside the mainstream. I think Kerry has a shot at winning CO, but it's a long shot, as CO is still a Republican leaning state. Besides, Kerry really needs the big prizes of PA, OH, and FL. He's right to concentrate his efforts in those states.
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 26, 2004 11:25 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Hey, has anyone got any information regarding protests or conventions going on in New Hampshire this weekend? Considering that Bush is making one last stop here, it's be great put in a last effort in getting him out.
Posted by: CLCBuxMA at October 26, 2004 11:31 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Rock NJ,
The ten battleground state polls are telephone polls and not interactive polls. Te interactive polls seem to be slightly slanted toward Kerry.
Zogby: phone vs. interactive
IA: p Bush +3, i Kerry +3.2
MI: p Kerry +9, i Kerry +6.7
MN: p Kerry +5, i Kerry +11.1
NM: p Bush +8, i Kerry +9.5
NV: p Bush +6, i Bush +3.5
OH: p Bush +1, i Bush +3.0
FL: p Bush +1, i Bush +1.2
WI: p Bush +2, i Kerry +3.8
PA: p Kerry +3, i Kerry +5.7
Posted by: DFuller at October 26, 2004 12:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The DNC is probably hoping their continued push will help Salazar... Kerry needs to stay in FL and OH, with side trips to WI, MN, and maybe AR... I would hope they send Clinton back home to AR, along with Wes Clark. AR could be the tie breaker.
Posted by: Scott Supak at October 26, 2004 12:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Ohio, Florida -- if we're polling ahead or within 1 point, we should have these states locked up. Young voters -- lots of universities in Ohio, lots of moderate subruban Republicans switching to Kerry, underemployed workers; remember Gore pulled out of Ohio last time and Bush just got 50% - the polls are good for us now. Florida -- no way African-American or retired Jewish voters will stay home this time. Kerry should be concentraitng here while shoring up the nearby upper midwest.
Colorado will be close and will be turn blue in '08. Incidentally, Mark, every young midwesterner I meet who moves out here to Colorado's front range (and there are quite a few) is a liberal who likes the weather, lifestyle, etc. Maybe this is what's happening to the upper midwest.
Posted by: Marc at October 26, 2004 01:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Gallup even has us up in Ohio. There's the cake -- mayeb Colorado can put the icing on.
Posted by: Marc at October 26, 2004 01:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
As for why the DNC is staying there, that's easy -- the down-ballot candidates. Ken Salazar is doing well but isn't quite safe, John Salazar is doing well but it's a tough district, you never know about Thomas/Beauprez....
Colorado is cheap enough that the DNC can handle media for all three and still offer support for Kerry. It's a great place to concentrate their unified party efforts.
Posted by: Corax at October 26, 2004 04:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I agree w/Marc - Colorado is heading blue because of the yuppies moving to the Front Range (and some of the lone eagles moving to the West Slope).
And I also agree with Corax - Ken is a good bet for another Dem Senate seat, and John needs all the help he can get against Walcher's latest round of dirty tricks. I just got a flyer from the Repubs in the mail about how John Salazar wants to take my tax dollars to send illegal aliens to college... *sigh*
Posted by: Ilana at October 26, 2004 07:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
It will be ALL about voter turnout. There are precincts that have more dems that have early voted than voted total in 2000. There is an increadible energy.
Posted by: Tony at October 27, 2004 02:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
It comes down to the fact that the Colorado seemed within grasp, but never was. I believe Kerry was campaigning more for the split vote then for the actual take-all vote. When he found out that the split vote would not pass, he pulled out.
Posted by: Jeremy at October 29, 2004 02:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
This last comment makes for an interesting discussion about the bill they've proposed. The conventional wisdom I heard a number of people using was that the new ammendment would make the candidates leave CO. (Why campaign there for one extra EV when you can get a whole bunch in winner-take-all states, etc.)
I guess everyone is too focused on Nov 2 2004 to think about those things now, though... I can't say that I blame you.
Posted by: Dan Hogan at October 29, 2004 02:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Speaking of Colorado, I'm a little more optimistic about Ken Salazar's chances here after seeing the two new polls today (not including Zogby's unrealistic double-digit lead). On the whole, however, I'm not very optimistic about the other Senate races.
Alaska seems to be the Dems best opportunity of the eight, but I'm still nervous about Bush coattails carrying Murkowski across the finish line.
Colorado is probably about 50-50. I'd like to say advantage Salazar, but I can't with any certainty.
Higher turnout in Florida is probably good news for Martinez rather than Castor since many of the new voters are non-Cuban Hispanics likely to vote for Martinez (even if they're voting Kerry in the Presidential race) because of his last name. If black turnout is high, Castor could yet prevail, but I don't like her odds at this point.
If he can avoid howling at the moon yet again before Tuesday, Jim Bunning will probably hang on in Kentucky, even though he's obviously going completely batshit insane (as opposed to his clear-headedness as one of the most conservative members of the Senate for the past six years). The Kentucky Republicans are now suggesting Mongiardo is gay, with one Republican leader calling him "limp wristed." If Mongiardo refuses to respond to this by saying he's not gay, his chances in Kentucky will be dead in the water, even against a nutjob like Bunning.
In Louisiana, I don't expect Vitter to get 50%, so there will be a runoff against Chris John. The outcome of the special election should be decided by whether Bush or Kerry wins the Presidency (they'll most likely go anti-incumbent).
Erskine Bowles looks like he may be toast in North Carolina. All we can hope for is that the polls are wrong or that Bowles gets some last-minute support, perhaps based on Edwards rally tonight in Raleigh (rally in Raleigh!)
It looks like Coburn will prevail in Oklahoma, unless all the undecideds break to Carson. Only in a state like OK could the guy who brags about what he won't do for the state still win, but I fear that he will. It's too bad that a rising star like Carson may fade into the oblivion so soon.
In South Carolina, I suspect a healthy six or seven-point victory for DeMint, as bad of a candidate as he is.
And in South Dakota, it's looking really bad for Daschle. Unless the current polls skewer right or the Indians can save him, I'm afraid we're looking at a Senator Thune (again, not very logical for a government-dependent state like SD to discard the only guy capable of bathing them in pork year after year).
Posted by: Mark at October 29, 2004 02:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Bowles still could win in NC, but he blew a double-digit lead over the past two months. His opponent Richard Burr is leading in every poll I've seen or heard about on TV by 2 to 3 points. Bowles will definitely carry the Triangle by a healthy margin (Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill), but that might be about it. I couldn't believe all the Burr signs I saw in Winston-Salem and in the Charlotte area over the past two weeks. Burr seems to be very strong along the I-77 corredor of NC, and that might be enough to put him over the top. Bowles really blew it. He is a poor campaigner, and lacks both gravitas and charisma--the patient is still breathing, but just barely.
Posted by: pepe at October 29, 2004 05:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment