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Friday, September 24, 2004

Yom Kippur Open Thread

Posted by DavidNYC

Taking a break for Yom Kippur. May you have an easy fast. And please feel free to use this as an open thread for the latest polls, swing state news, etc. Let's go Jets!

Posted at 10:04 PM in Site News | Technorati


Any good Jew roots for the Giants.

Posted by: Will at September 24, 2004 10:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Good Jews, Good Christians, Good Muslims, Good Hindus, Good Buddhists, Good Aetheists, and Good another religion cheer for the Cubbies. GO CUBS!!!!

Posted by: Michael at September 24, 2004 11:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Cubs, and Giants and Jets, oh my!

Forget about them--it's ALL about the Carolina Panthers! We gave the Patriots a huge scare in the Super Bowl last year--this year, we're winning it all!

And in college football, beware of the mighty BUCKEYES!

Posted by: Pepe at September 24, 2004 11:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Two recent Wisconsin polls have showed both ��Bush and Senator Russ Feingold with substantial leads. Since each poll used the same respondents for both races, the effect of sampling error on relative positions should be dampened.

Milwaukee Journal/Sentinal �� Capital Times

Ticketsplitting's always been big here. Tommy Thompson used to rack up huge numbers while our current Gov, Jim Doyle would have similar margins for Attorney General.

The Badger Poll shows the bigger spreads, and most overlap between Bush and Feingold supporters, with 30% of Feingold's supporters backing Bush.

There's no Green in the Senate race, ��not a coincidence. There's a Libertarian running for Senate, Arif Khan, but so far he's not had near the profile of the LP's Presidential candidate.

Certainly much of the difference in support for Feingold and Kerry can be traced to familiarity, especially since Russ has been maintaining a rigorous schedule of listening sessions in every one of the States' 72 Counties each of his 12 years in office.

Another edge comes from his vote against the Assault Weapons Ban in a strong pro-gun State. Too late for Kerry to fix this. (76% of Wisconsin voters approved a Constiutional Amrendment making the Right to Keep and Bear Arms explicitly an individual right in 1998.)

The McCain association also helps Feingold with Republican moderates not impressed with Michels' Primary season ads, scripted to the GOP right. (The poll was held a few days after the Primary. Michels had 3 opponents, Feingold none.)

Kerry's "Lambert Field" gaffe came during the Badger Poll's window, so these numbers reflect its peak impact.

The most interesting segment, I'm afraid to try and quantify just yet, would be supporters of divided government. They distrust both Parties, expect Bush to be re-elected, and want a strong Democratic presence in the Congress to check Bush's excesses. I have a hunch this group is larger than credited, not just in Wisconsin, but throughout the country.

Even after subtracting for the above factors, I conclude Kerry's failed to define himself. There's been lots of Bio, and Bush attacks, but too little ��program, a vision of America under a Kerry Administration.

Posted by: Ben Masel at September 25, 2004 12:02 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

If you live near Pennsylvania and can make time Monday, join Ginny as she accepts the Official Endorsement from Governor Ed Rendell:

On Monday, September 27th at 1:30PM EDT, Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell will officially endorse Congressional Candidate Virginia "Ginny" Schrader for Congress in the Eighth District. The event will be held in Bristol at the Riverfront Park at the foot of Mill Street (click here for a map or directions). Governor Rendell and Ginny will be joined by community leaders from the area and will be discussing the issues facing the voters of the eighth district including health care, jobs and the economy.

While we know that a Monday afternoon might be difficult for you, if at all possible, please attend. It is very important that we show strong support for Ginny since the media will be there! Let's make it a huge rally!

Please RSVP if you would like to attend the event.

Posted by: PA08 at September 25, 2004 12:25 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Given that the Democrats have no chance of recapturing the House, and their chances of recapturing the Senate are well, not great...

surely Kerry represents the best option for the ticket-splitters!

Posted by: anon at September 25, 2004 01:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Wisconsin is an excellent example of why Bush is leading this race. The battle with the exceptions of N.H. and Florida is all on the Blue state side.

Posted by: Wisthe One at September 25, 2004 03:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

You forget about Ohio, a place the Bushies are afraid of and have no idea how it will turn out on election day. That's why he will be visiting the most Republican metro area in the country on monday, to help gin up the base.

Posted by: pc at September 25, 2004 03:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

And now NJ has entered the status of a true swing state, where the race appears to be heating up. I read on the AP wire that this is why Kerry has pulled much of his ads from AZ, CO and MO--he cannot afford to lose NJ, so he's going to have to do all he can to keep the Garden State from swinging. Meanwhile, Bush isn't (yet) spending any money in NJ, though now he just might. The GOP thinking is, they don't need really need NJ, because if NJ is in play on election day--even if Bush loses there--he will likely win the election in a landslide.

Posted by: Pepe at September 25, 2004 05:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

pc-Look at the Ohio polls-no where near as close as Pa.,NM,Wis,Iowa,Minn or maybe NJ

Posted by: WistheOne at September 25, 2004 07:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

All this political talk interrupting the sports talk. You'd think this was a political BLOG or something!!! ;-)

Posted by: Michael at September 25, 2004 08:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

On DailyKos, they posted that registration in Democratic areas of OH and FL has far outdone Republican registration. Here's a toast to MoveOn, ACT, and Democracy for America!

I'm getting really sick of the media completely obsessing on OH as if the entire election rests upon who wins OH. Personally, I think we stand a better chance at FL than at OH. Why? Several things.

First of all, in 2000 Bush had to go to the desperate measure of cheating to win FL...and even then, only won by 537 votes. OH he won kosher. This is easily explained: OH, even though it has a large black population, is mostly rural, and is largely made up of what some would call "American Gothic" types...conservative farmers.

FL, on the other hand, is as diverse as CA. It has a large amount of blacks, Hispanics (most of whom AREN'T Cuban), and baby boomers. And the Miami area in the southeast is heavily Democratic. FL gets more blue every election...and we won it in both 1996 and, yes, 2000. ARG shows Kerry ahead by 1 there...not really secure, but I'm willing to say that it is within the range of possibility since very little polling has been done since the never-ending cycle of hurricanes began.

Anyway, voting drives in areas like Miami and Cleveland have been apparently much more successful than those in more Republican areas. I wish we weren't overlooking places like Raleigh-Durham, though.

By the way, does anyone think it's possible we'll get WV this year? ARG (which might lean a tiny bit to the left) shows it tied, and it is traditionally Democratic. However, I won't get my hopes up.

I truly think it's possible that we'll see some interesting upsets on November 2. For example, IA and WI going red but CO and FL going blue. However, we can't afford to lose PA!!!! Unless we were to pick up both OH and FL, losing PA would be devastating. It definitely is not in the comfort zone, but it tends to go blue in presidential elections and I'm sure we've been registering more voters in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, etc.

Posted by: Nathaniel at September 25, 2004 10:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Scrutiny Hooligans has an update on the Patsy Keever for Congress campaign in NC's 11th district.

Posted by: Screwy Hoolie at September 26, 2004 12:03 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

OH, even though it has a large black population, is mostly rural, and is largely made up of what some would call "American Gothic" types...conservative farmers.

Nathaniel, have you ever been to OH? Wherever you got your information from, well, your source must be close to a hundred years old. OH hasn't been "mostly rural" for several generations or more. Actually, OH is one of the most populous and urban states in the USA. I'm an ex-Buckeye, but over 11 million folks still call OH home--and keep in mind, there are only 15 states smaller than OH, so the population density is high across the state. OH has three very large metropolitan regions (Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati) and numerous mid-sized cities like Akron-Canton, Toledo, Dayton, and Youngstown. The place you are describing sounds a lot more like IA or NE, but it's certainly not OH!

Posted by: Pepe at September 26, 2004 01:29 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I haven't been to OH, unfortunately, but I have gotten the feeling that it is like PA in being, to paraphrase James Carville, "Columbus, Cincinnati, and Cleveland with Nebraska in between". But I certainly wouldn't claim to have a better grasp on the feel of the state than an ex-Buckeye would. I'm sure you are right about it. It is very populous, but I bet that most of that population lives in one of the three big cities, just like 80% of New York's population is in the NYC agglomeration, 50% of California's population is in the LA sprawl, and 70% of Illinois' population is in Chicagoland.

The OH you're describing sounds like a very viable pickup for Kerry, then...any state that is that urbanized should be going Democratic...so why the hell does it usually elect Republicans (the first Democrat to win it since 1964 was Clinton)? Perhaps low turnout in the cities? Low turnout among blacks???

I have, however, been to FL (I have a friend who is moving to Fort Lauderdale - is that a more Democratic or Republican area?), and because it is so quickly growing and diverse, I still would say that we have a better chance of winning it than OH.

Posted by: Nathaniel at September 26, 2004 11:25 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

OH leans conservative, but the key word is leans--it is never overwhelming so. When you think of it, any state is a compilation of its urban centers "with Nebraska in between," so that discription describes nothing unique.

OH is actually a like FL in that it has many large to medium-sized population centers dispersed throughout the state. Like FL, there are distinctive "regions" of OH, in which some are more conservative or liberal, with all the nuances in between. In OH, Cincinnati is the GOP center, Cleveland is the Democratic center, and Columbus is more to the center. What makes OH different from FL is that it has virtually no Hispanic influence. There is a significant black population in the cities, but much of it chooses to sit out elections.

OH is definitely a GOP-dominated state, and it has been that way for a long time. However, upon closer inspection, one sees that the GOP usually win elections by a small rather than overwhelming majority. OH is no IN, for example, which is viewed as much more conservative in nature, at least when it comes to national elections.

Posted by: Pepe at September 26, 2004 11:46 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Correction: No Democrat since 1976 had won OH until Clinton.

Posted by: Nathaniel at September 26, 2004 11:46 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

A lot of new voters being registered here in Florida. Also I think the hurricanes might have an effect (Jeanne is outside my door as I type this). People are miserable, and I think miserable people are less likely to vote for the incumbent.

Posted by: Rob at September 26, 2004 12:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Wistheone, Pepe, you are falling into the media and GOP trap by looking at the polls. The latest Ohio poll made the recent Gallup poll look more accurate.

Hopefully you read the NYT article talking about voter registration among Democratic areas in swing states.

Ohio is a conservative state, but it doesn't have to be a Republican state. If there was any organization skill by the Democratic party in Ohio in the last 10 years it would be more competitive. Thanks to ACT, and other organizations, 04 is competitive and 2006 will be as well. I'm on the ground here. I think many of you will be surprised when Brokaw calls Ohio for Kerry at about 9:50 eastern time.

It's all about turning out at least 45% of the 300,000 new registered voters that ACT and others have registered. Polls are irrelevant.

Posted by: pc at September 26, 2004 03:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment