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Thursday, August 12, 2004

Watching the Predictors

Posted by DavidNYC

Ed Fitzgerald, a frequent commenter here and proprietor of the Unfutz blog, offers an incomparable meta-survey of just about every single electoral college prediction under the sun, including Chris's GECC. The most recent edition of Ed's electoral college survey shows (unsurprisingly) that virtually everyone with a dog in this fight is predicting a Kerry win at the moment. I like these odds.

Also, if you haven't seen it yet, check out MyDD's interactive electoral map. It's the simplest and quickest I've seen so far, and it also shows each state in proportional size (based, it appears, on this WaPo map). The standard red vs. blue maps make Bush look more powerful than he was in 2000 - but population-wise, of course, we were dead even.

Posted at 02:03 AM in General | Technorati


That map is pretty good. I still prefer the LA Times, if only for the music, and the ominous warning that comes up when the electoral college comes up at 269-appiece.

But it won't. Latest Florida: Kerry chugging Gator-aid

Posted by: joseph at August 12, 2004 12:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thanks for the blurb -- I just wanted to note that I'll be updating the survey soon, sometime over the weekend, or Monday at the latest.

If there's a site I've missed that should be included, please drop me a note, or post it here.

Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at August 13, 2004 01:01 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The new survey is here.

Executive summary: of the 38 sites surveyed, 28 show Kerry winning, and 5 others show him ahead. Five sites show Bush winning. Kerry averages around 300 votes.

Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at August 15, 2004 05:52 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

You're the man, Ed!

It's nice to have a place to see a round-up of the "race jockeys" on a frequent basis.

Your efforts are always appreciated.

Posted by: Chuck at August 15, 2004 12:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Ed: Mattb25 (a diarist at DKos) has tossed his hat into the predictions ring.

Posted by: DavidNYC at August 15, 2004 01:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment


Yeah, I came across his analysis last night after posting the survey, so I updated to include it.

Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at August 15, 2004 03:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

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Posted by: logo at November 3, 2004 01:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment