« Nader Dinged in Two Swing States | Main | Bush Crosses into Doomed Territory in New Mexico »

Saturday, August 21, 2004

EIW Open Thread

Posted by DavidNYC

Early Interview Week starts on Monday. I have 17 interviews in four days, including ten (10!) on Wednesday alone. Enjoy the open thread.

Posted at 08:30 PM in General | Technorati


For those interested, I've posted my latest (8/22) survey of Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast sites here.

Executive summary: currently, of the 42 sites surveyed, 30 show Kerry winning, and 4 others show him ahead. Four sites show Bush winning, and 4 show him ahead. Kerry's lead over Bush has eroded a bit, but he still averages a little under 300 votes, with 270 needed to win.

Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at August 22, 2004 05:38 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I am very concerened about the referenda on gay marriage that will be on the ballot on election day in the following states: AR, GA, KY, MI (possibly), OH, OK, OR, MS, MT, ND, and UT. While the majority of these states are deep red, the list does include OH, AR, OR, and possibly MI. We all know how this played out in Missouri a few weeks ago, where 71 percent voted to keep marriage between a man and a woman. Turn out was huge, and it brought out the fundamentalists in droves. We can expect the same thing to happen in these states on election day. I fear that this issue will galvanize a significant number of fundamentalists and homophobes in these eleven states. Many of these voters might otherwise have stayed home, but they will come out to vote against gay marriage, and at the same time, they will vote for George Bush. It's true that gays will vote in large numbers too, but let's face it, their numbers will be dwarfed by those of the fundamentalists, just as they were in MO. Hard as it may be to believe, for many Americans, this issue is even bigger than the war in Iraq. It's a hot-button issue that will not go away, and it could directly affect the election in swing states like OH and even OR. If anyone has doubts of this, look how it played in MO, and be thankful that MO didn't have this gay marriage referendum on their November ballot!

Posted by: Pepe at August 22, 2004 08:45 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I was wondering if anyone here knows why the zogby poll/map on WSJ.com hasn't been updated yet? http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html

is the link. is there just a delayed posting or something? it seems like the new data is almost a week late.

Posted by: Scott Rose at August 22, 2004 02:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

As Chris reported, Zogby is going to include four more swing states from now on. So maybe it's taking him longer because of the increased number of polls.

Posted by: DavidNYC at August 22, 2004 03:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I believe that Zogby is releasing his latest
poll numbers on Aug. 26th.

Posted by: Shar at August 22, 2004 04:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Cause God forbid DraftHillary actually wait until the end of the election. If John wins, Hillary's chance of an 08 run is pretty much nil, barring the obvious impeachable scandal, sickness, death etc. Even that said, her only shot at this point is a Kerry Loss. Otherwise, she is out until 2012, where the table could be set for an Edwards run (with an Obama VP??? Man I'd love to see that)

Posted by: Michael at August 22, 2004 04:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

you said it man.

Posted by: scott rose at August 23, 2004 01:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Can anyone explain to me why it seems that at least 95% of the polls predict a Kerry victory in November, and yet nearly everything I've read in the mainstream press dealing with who's the favorite has Bush "pulling ahead" or outright winning in November. The implication is if Bush loses, it will be an upset. Huh? Then why is Bush trailing in most every poll? What's wrong with this picture?

check out the following from today:

Economists Predict Bush Win

Posted by: Pepe at August 23, 2004 05:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm not sure that Polls prior to the RNC have much real meaning, especially the short term, small sample polls that we're all basing lots of our hopes and arguments on. And horse race style popular vote polls, well, are just bad. The 31 day battleground state polls next month should tell us a lot more. The fact is - it IS a close race - further proof that politics in this country are getting more, not less, divisive.

Posted by: Brew at August 23, 2004 06:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment