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Tuesday, August 03, 2004

AZ: First Traditional Post-Convention State Poll

Posted by DavidNYC

The Arizona Republic has what appears to be the first traditional (ie, non-Zogby) state poll that was conducted entirely after the convention. And it shows... well, not very much at all. Via Polling Report - no link to any stories yet (likely voters, no proper trendlines):

Kerry: 45
Bush: 48
Other/Undecided: 7
(MoE: 4%)

I say no "proper" trendlines because, once again, there was a prior poll, but it included Nader (before he got bumped off the ballot). That poll, done in June, also showed Bush ahead by three points, 44-41. This development is a bit troubling (and also contrary to my predictions) because undecideds seem to have split evenly between the two candidates, and Kerry appears not to have picked up Nader's 2%.

Of course, this is just one poll. At the same time, though, except for ASU's last poll, most AZ polls haven't shown the race this close. I think AZ is probably just outside of our grasp in a close election, though could be ours with a strong national win.

UPDATE: Reader Phalanges provides a link to the poll.

Posted at 04:06 PM in Arizona | Technorati


AZ will go with Bush. Long term trends are hard to break. AZ is still a Republican state, despite Clinton's 1996 win (with help from Perot). If Kerry wins AZ, he'll be coasting to victory.

Posted by: Rock_nj at August 3, 2004 04:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Here is the link to the AZ Republic's poll http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/0804poll04.html

Posted by: Phalanges at August 4, 2004 07:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Little Rock, AR
Thanks for interesting 8/03/04 poll in AZ. Today's Rasmussin among likely is showing AR(kansas) as a "toss up", with Bush 46% Kerry 46%.
Interesting that NV has moved into "toss up". I think NV could be key to a scenario that I think is among the most likely in this coming election:
Kerry first Demo to win in Electoral College only.
Why? NV. NV is a small E-vote state, but rural Hispanic vote could pivot state. Small states are key to E-college. Kerry trails Bush NATIONALLY among likely voters (leads among "registered"), but leads consistently among same likely's in states he needs to win in E-college, i.e., OH, NV, NH, which Gore didn't carry, while also maintaining leads in most Gore states (except poss. WI or IA). Close also is AZ, where margin for error could tell the tale. Main drag on Bush could be that Libertarain Party has come out against War in Iraq. Liberts. often pull GOP voters who are disgruntled w/current nominee. I don't have to tell you what state(s) that is a big factor in--SW, plus all states w/big military absentee ballot counts. Obviously, McCain is "the man" in Az. Military families stateside will probably vote Libertarian in higher numbers this time, than last--many who voted for Bush last time, for example. That's the drag. And it's in SW--including NV. Interesting to see if Kerry will also carry AZ, or how close it'll be.
Max Standridge
PS/Disclaimer: all this, assuming nothing "extraordinary" happens (a Kerry My Lai--which hasn't happened so far) or a new terror attack stateside. But w/so many Bush "plurality" states, including some smaller E-vote states, it's difficult to believe Bush will win in E-college, though again National Likely trends Bush.

Posted by: Max Standridge at August 24, 2004 12:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment