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Friday, July 23, 2004
Too Many Polls to Count
Posted by DavidNYCDemFromCT has done yeoman's work and rounded up more polls than you can shake a stick at. There are new surveys out for AZ, FL, MI, NH, OH, OR and PA. I'm going to highlight that last one, which was done by the LA Times (registered voters, no trendlines):
Kerry: 51
Bush: 39
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ��4%)
Twelve points in PA? Gadzooks. Even with Nader included, Kerry holds a 10-point lead. Bush's job approval is below the Mendoza line here, at 47-48. The lack of trendlines is a bit frustrating, though, and it might be a while before the distant LA Times polls Pennsylvania again.
Posted at 06:34 PM in Pennsylvania | Technorati
Comments
"...a long shot scenario for Kerry to lose..." Huh? No long shots in this race. It likely will be determined by a major event, or series of small events, beyond either candidate's control. That's assuming neither side slacks off or does something really stupid. Nevertheless, this site is enormously helpful in knowing when and where we Democrats need to be ready. Out here in Oregon, though, we seem to be swinging rather firmly toward Kerry.
Posted by: Bruce Borgerson at July 23, 2004 06:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
This is good to see Kerry taking a commanding lead in PA. It was looking like he might lose PA a few months ago. It's pretty much a must win state for him. Election only about 3 months away now!
Posted by: Rock_nj at July 23, 2004 07:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kerry now ahead in Nevada, by 4%
Posted by: PollFan at July 23, 2004 11:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Yes, Kerry ahead in NV, that's pretty big news. If Kerry is poised to win states like NV, I can't see how Bush can win. Election only about 3 months away now.
Posted by: Rock_nj at July 24, 2004 07:30 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I just saw a story on the MSNBC web site that states that Kerry is behind in the race for electoral votes. This allegedly comes from the Associated Press. However, I wonder what state polls they are reading. The polls I read give Kerry the lead right now. Where did MSNBC get this information?
Posted by: Alan Snipes at July 24, 2004 03:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Pre convention nonsense. If the election were held today, Kerry would win easily.
Posted by: Rock_nj at July 24, 2004 04:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I saw the same AP nonsense. By "Bush leading," they mean that they think there are more safe Bush EVs than safe Kerry EVs. Even if one accepts this (and I don't, although I would love to see the polls they're using), the fact is that capturing a 10-vote crack in Bush's 2000 coalition (OH or FL or MO) would give the election for Kerry, and if the election were held today, Kerry would take OH, WV, NH, and possibly MO, NV, and/or FL.
Posted by: Ben Schak at July 24, 2004 06:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I saw that AP report as well (it's here), and its ludicrous. Even websites run by Bush partisans have Kerry in the lead.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at July 24, 2004 11:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I've updated my Electoral College prediction/projection survey, here.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at July 25, 2004 02:44 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
There's a handy Excel file of recent state poll results at http://www.electoral-vote.com/jul/jul25.xls
It gives results along with date and source of poll, but only one poll per state (the poll upon which the projection at http://www.electoral-vote.com/ is based).
Posted by: Marsden at July 25, 2004 05:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The poll that http://www.electoral-vote.com/ used for Florida yesterday had Bush leading Kerry with Nader as spoiler. Painful to see... of course, today there is a new poll up with Bush having real non-Nader influenced lead in FL and OH, but Kerry still winning.
Kerry doesn't have to take any of the three big swing states (FL, MO, OH) and he can still win if he picks up a few other states here and there (mainly Arizona, unfortunately). He definitely wins if he picks up any assortment of those three big swing states, so I would say either way that puts him in good shape.
Posted by: hastings 14 at July 26, 2004 02:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment