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Tuesday, July 20, 2004

ASU Poll: Kerry Takes Lead in AZ

Posted by DavidNYC

Argh... I had just written a fairly long entry on a new poll from Arizona State University, only to have it gobbled up by the ghost in the machine. So here it is again, in short form (registered voters, no pure trendlines):

Kerry: 42
Bush: 41
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ��5%)

As the headline explains, this is the first poll since February which shows Kerry with a lead (albeit inside the MoE) in Arizona. A June poll which also included Nader showed Bush with a hefty 47-35 advantage, so this is some nice momentum for Kerry. This, plus the large number of undecideds, plus Bush's 47-45 job approval rating, are all good things.

I should warn, though, that some other recent polls (including those from SUSA and an outfit called the Behavioral Research Center) haven't been as sanguine - Bush has double-digit leads in both of those. Moreover, BRC claims that Kerry's recent immigration reform proposals haven't gone over well with AZ's independent and Latino voters. Apparently, we're also reducing our ad buy in the state, though it seems that the 527s are picking up the slack. (We aren't co-ordinating with you guys, we promise!)

Posted at 10:25 PM in Arizona | Technorati


I could understand using "we" to mean Democrats, but you seem to use "we" to mean the Kerry campaign, as contrasted with liberal 527s. Are you working on media for Kerry, or are you just very proud of them?

Posted by: Jenn Thorpe at July 20, 2004 10:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It's sorta like my Mets - sometimes they become "we". :) And no, I'm not working for the campaign or anyone else.

Posted by: DavidNYC at July 20, 2004 10:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

If you haven't already found it, the Behavior Research Center has a poll result page at http://www.brcpolls.com/pollresults.html.

I've looked over their website fairly thoroughly, and Googled the principals involved, and can't find any real indication that they're a partisan outfit (they also run the Rocky Mountain Poll), except that they seem pretty tight with the Chamber of Commerce and other business-oriented organizations. No sign of partisan candidate polling -- though they don't provide a client list as most polling outfits do, which is a little worrying.

Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at July 21, 2004 02:16 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Looks like we might be able to get AZ in 2008.

Posted by: David Trinh at July 21, 2004 10:37 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Can't make much of a poll like this. Probably just an anomoly. Kerry will surge in the polls after the convention. What will be important is if polls are consistently looking like this in late September.

Posted by: Rock_nj at July 21, 2004 11:55 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Any thoughts on a general response in polls to Edwards' nomination? Or did it cause as few waves as some expected?

Posted by: shimamoto at July 21, 2004 12:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Shim: The ASU poll actually tried something interesting regarding that idea. To wit:

A majority of Arizona voters (52 percent) felt adding Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., to the ticket strengthened the Kerry campaign. However, an experimental design where one-half of those interviewed were asked how they would vote between Bush and Kerry and the other one-half of the sample were asked who they would vote for between the Bush/Cheney ticket and the Kerry/Edwards ticket indicated adding Edwards to the ticket did little to help Kerry and may have helped Bush slightly. The Bush/Kerry numbers were Bush 38 percent, Kerry 42 percent with 20 percent undecided. The Bush/Cheney ticket received 44 percent of the vote, and Kerry/Edwards 42 percent with 14 percent undecided.

I think the numbers we're talking about here are too small to really read much into - presumably, the margin of error for these half-samples is greater. But it's food for thought nonetheless.

Posted by: DavidNYC at July 21, 2004 02:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

A letter to the editor of the East Valley Tribune (AZ) written by Maria Cardona of the New Democrat Network was published Tuesday, 7/20. She called the BRCS poll "grossly inaccurate" for a couple reasons. One is the small sample size. Total voters in the poll was 400, Hispanics only 55. Margin of error for 55 is 14 points. Second, even though at least a third of the Hispanic electorate is Spanish-dominant, no interviews were conducted in Spanish.

She then refers to NDN polling. In late April they polled 400 Hispanics who went Kerry 60, Bush 30. She states that their newest poll of Hispanic voters, not yet released, has Kerry 68 and Bush 22. These polls cover 5 states and are conducted using bilingual phoners.

Posted by: Phalanges at July 22, 2004 02:16 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment