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Friday, May 07, 2004
Gallup: Kerry Leads in "Purple" States + Is Illinois in Play?
Posted by DavidNYCOn my map, states which went narrowly for Bush are yellow; narrowly for Gore gets ya green. There was nothing intuitive about this color choice - they were just handy. Some cleverer folks, however, have taken to calling the battleground states "purple" - I guess this is where Grimace and Barney live - and Gallup adopts this terminology in some pleasing recent poll results.
Kerry leads 48-44 in the purple states, which Gallups defines as having a margin of less than or equal to 5%. That's just 12 states: Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania,Tennessee & Wisconsin. But these are pretty much the most important ones. Ruy digs into the details and says it looks even better.
On a related note, Mark Gersh (writing in the DLC's Blueprint magazine) takes a look at subtle demographic trends and decides that there are only 13 true toss-up battleground states, plus 7 leaners. (Luke discussed various lists of swing states here a little while back.) Gersh's toss-ups are the same as the above list, minus TN but plus AZ and WV, so no surprises there.
One of his leaners is a bit of a shocker, though: Illinois. (The others are Washington & Michigan, which favor Kerry, and Colorado, Tennessee, Louisiana & Arkansas, which favor Bush.) Gersh doesn't exactly explain why. He does argue that, even in the space of four short years, demographic trends can have an effect. So presumably, the trends which favor Republicans (the growth in exurban areas) are present in IL. But the fact still remains that IL had a bigger Bush-Gore margin than non-swing states Vermont, California & Georgia. He also leaves out Virgina as a leaner, even though it had a tighter margin than Colorado.
In any event, I seriously pray Gersh is wrong about Illinois. This sort of thing gives me the night sweats. I'd like to see a fuller explanation as to why he thinks IL is winnable for Republicans. I consider Illinois a "Jack Daniel's state" (even though technically, that oughta be TN): If you see IL turning red on election night, break out the Jack. Cuz he's gonna be the only friend you'll want to talk to.
(Thanks to Luke for the Gersh link. More comments on the subject are here.)
(Grammar correction on the Whiskey courtesy of Naomi in the comments!)
Posted at 06:39 PM in General, Safe States | Technorati
Comments
Hi David, thanks for all the great reportage. However, you have made one significant mistake, which is that the liquor you will keep near to hand on election night is in fact made by a man named "Jack Daniel"; it is "Jack Daniel's" whiskey, not the whiskey of "Jack Daniels". In German and Elizabethan English, this may not matter, but it does to me. Please keep this in mind; you will be doing all of us in the Daniel clan a favor.
Posted by: Naomi Daniel at May 8, 2004 04:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Illinois was the only state in the nation, if i recall correctly, that shifted to the Dems in 2002, the year of the great GOP uprising (ugh). I doubt seriously that it's in play. I could be off on that, but the Chicago Machine, as far as I know, appears to be at least as strong as it's ever been.
Posted by: justin at May 9, 2004 02:42 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I wouldn't worry about Illinois too much. I'm a life long Illinoian (and this is in the rural "downstate"). Even in my Republican town Bush-weariness is palpable.
Posted by: Ryan at May 10, 2004 08:03 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Illinois is not in play. Gersch is breathing through the pipe if he thinks it is.
Posted by: Ralph at May 11, 2004 10:03 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
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Posted by: Breast Enhancement at October 11, 2004 01:00 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment