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Saturday, May 22, 2004
Crunching the Numbers on Jersey
Posted by DavidNYCRecently, there's been some hand-wringing about the closeness of some trial-heat polls in NJ. I maintained that Jersey is not a swing state, and I still do. Chris, writing over at MyDD, actually crunches the numbers and comes to the same conclusion.
Looking at the neglected step-child of polling stats - approval/disapproval ratings - Chris observes that Bush is strongly disliked. His only shot in NJ is to pump up Kerry's disapproval rating, but given the Bush campaign's current financial straits, it seems unlikely that they can afford to stay on the air in NJ. And hence, NJ is going to stay in our hands.
Posted at 08:00 PM in Safe States | Technorati
Comments
If you add Nader's numbers to Gore's numbers in 2000, then Jersey went an astounding 60% left and 40% right. I live in Jersey. Believe me, those polls are not reflective of the mood of this state. Jersey will strongly support a fellow northeasterner in November. Kerry will win Jersey by at least 10 points. The polls are inaccurate. One thing the polls tend to do, is undercount the Dems, as they aren't always home to be polled, but show up on election day to vote.
Posted by: Rock_nj at May 23, 2004 10:08 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment