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Monday, May 24, 2004

At Long Last

Posted by DavidNYC

I finally really, really, really am done with the first year of law school - I just Fedexed my damn casenote for the damn journal write-on competition. (If you have no idea what I'm talking about, consider yourself blessed.) What a nightmare: You finish final exams (which are hellish enough) only to have to suffer through yet another writing exercise - all for the privilege of spending your 2L year correcting footnotes in law journal articles.

My advice, which I think I've given before: Don't start a blog your 1L year. Alternately, do start a blog - you're going to need to procrastinate somehow.

Anyhow, Kos has a post up detailing Zogby's "battleground" poll. It looks interesting (and good for us, to boot). The only problem is, it's being conducted on the Internet. No one seems entirely clear about the precise methodology, but I have to assume it's a little more rigorous and controlled than your average AOL poll - after all, Zogby does have a rep to protect. If it turns out to be a serious poll, maybe then I'll take a closer look.

For now, though, I'm just gonna chill. Where's that beer?

Posted at 08:23 PM in General | Technorati


Congratulations on your achievement David! Hope you're enjoying relaxing and not spending too much time here.

FWIW, I tend to think the Zogby polls are a little biased toward the left, except when it comes to Arkansas and probably some other less familiar states in the middle of the country. Zogby has never given the Democrats in Arkansas any respect. You'll find that Zogby nearly always gives a close race in Arkansas to the Republican candidate, even when every other poll has it leaning to the Democrats. When it comes to Arkansas, I'm almost ready to believe that they just automatically color it red.

And what's up with Iowa? Perhaps Zogby is treating it with the same respect it does Arkansas? I know Iowa is close, but I'm skeptical that Bush has such a large lead there. If these polls were all conducted on the internet, then that could explain some of the results though. I don't consider internet polls very reflective of the public in general. Usually internet polls lean a little more to the left than normal, but in states such as Iowa or Arkansas that may not be the case. In Arkansas the majority of internet users probaby do lean to the right, since so many of the Democrats in Arkansas live in areas of lower income; thus they likely have fewer computers or the time to use them.

I also question the large leads for Kerry in Missouri and Nevada. I hope it's true, but I'm guessing that Missouri still leans toward Bush a little and I haven't seen many polls giving Kerry a reasonable chance in Nevada, although I know some believe he does have one.


Posted by: LiberalAce at May 24, 2004 11:03 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I live a few miles from the Iowa border and in no way believe that Bush has a five-point lead there...or any lead at all for that matter. I took a close look at the Zogby Poll numbers, and suffice it to say the numbers don't add up, particularly in Iowa. Here's the breakdown: Bush allegedly has a huge lead in "Iowa's only city", Des Moines (highly unlikely) while Kerry leads by double-digits in Iowa small towns. Huh?

More suspicious data.....every other swing state showed Kerry with big leads among voters under age 30. But not Nevada. There, BUSH leads by double-digits among voters under 30 while Kerry is clobbering Bush among older voters.

And finally, my home state of Minnesota. Here, Kerry leads by more than nine points overall. Good news right? Not so fast. 47% of Minnesota's population lives in suburbs....and Bush supposedly has a 21-point lead (!) in the suburbs. Furthermore, Bush has a 12-point lead in Minnesota's small towns, even though Kerry leads by 12 points in the small towns of neighboring Iowa. Bottom line: there is no way Kerry could have a 9-point lead (or any lead) in Minnesota if he trails Bush by 21 points in the suburbs and 12 points in small towns.

I have a hard time swallowing Zogby's overall poll numbers when the details are so obviously flawed.

Posted by: Mark at May 26, 2004 06:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It's still early, states that traditionally vote one way or another will fall into line (except for perhaps OH and WV, it seems that they're ready to flip this year). All and all, it's looking good for Kerry at this juncture. He doesn't have the baggage Clinton had. His poll numbers are looking good. Usually the undecideds break for the challenger, especially in a year like this one with war and economic problems. Also, the Dems are undercounted by 2-3%, so Kerry will gain more by election day.

Posted by: Rock_nj at May 26, 2004 10:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment