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Thursday, April 29, 2004

The Nader Effect in PA

Posted by Seamus

I have contended for some time that folks are over-emphasizing the impact that Nader will have in 2004. And since I'm fresh from getting snippy with some Democrat villifying Nader over at DailyKos, I thought I'd share some information that might help shed some light on the anticipated impact of Nader in this election.

As it turns out, the Green Party in Pennsylvania just held its 2004 Caucus on April 24th. In that caucus delegates were selected to represent Pennsylvania at the Green Party's national convention. Here are the leading results:

Now, I think the implications are obvious. Put aside how Nader himself did and realize that even if Nader got every other vote, the ability of "No Candidate" to siphon off 9 of 37 delegates is impressive! At the very least, this should be a bellwether for where the Green Party stands in 2004. Given the impressive results for Cobb and "No Candidate," I think it's pretty clear that Nader is only going to have marginal success at the election booth in November. (Remember that Nader polled much higher than he performed in the election in 2000 as well. That effect will be more dramatic this time around.) Oh yeah, and Kerry got one vote.

(My post from the Seamus Press and Election Results by County from the PA Green Party.)

Posted at 11:49 AM in Pennsylvania | Technorati


Equally telling is Missouri. The State Green affiliate met here and voted 91-9% not to support running a presidential candidate.

As a 2002 Green candidate for US Congress, I missed the meeting and my chance to make the margin one vote larger, because I was a delegate to the state Democratic convention the same weekend.

Nader will have trouble getting on the ballot here, and in my opinion he will probably fall below 1.5% nationally on election day--with even lower numbers in battleground states.

Posted by: Keith Brekhus at April 29, 2004 02:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I was going to ask, well, will David Cobb then take votes away from John Kerry? But the reality is that Cobb (with whom I'm not very familiar) has virtually none of Nader's name recognition, nor will he gain much between now and November.

But obviously, last time around, lots of people voted for Nader who aren't members of the Green Party - or they voted for Nader regardless of the fact that he was on the Green Party line. It's these people, rather than the well-informed active Green Party members, whose behavior on election day is more of a mystery.

Posted by: DavidNYC at April 29, 2004 03:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment