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Monday, March 08, 2004

Pennsylvania Solid Blue?

Posted by Fester

The Big Picture is posting a link to a Zogby analysis found in Barrons that is suggesting that Pennsylvania is not a swing state in the 2004 election. I am not sure what to make of this statement. I would like to imagine that Pennsylvania is not in play as it will go to Kerry as it would mean that West Virginia and Ohio are definately winnable without a massive expenditure of resources because a Pennsylvania win for a Democrat would mean strong support in the Philly corner and a good showing in Southwestern PA which is culturally and socially similiar to West Virginia and Appalachian Ohio.

However I look at the nimrods that significant portions of this state sends to Congress and I have to doubt that. I have been getting slowly more optimistic over the past two months about November, but I have not gotten that optimistic yet. It is likely in my opinion that Spectar will be re-elected in the fall barring a national revulsion against the Republican Party in general and that there are very few winnable Congressional seats in Pennsylvania for the Democrats to pick-up. The Allentown district is the best change, but Toomey is entrenched. Pennsylvania will be a tough fight regardless of what today's polling results show.

Posted at 05:39 PM in Pennsylvania | Technorati


I agree that it's better to be CAUTIOUSLY optimistic. The campaign is really just beginning, and Bush's millions will buy him lots of doubts about Kerry over the coming months. Also, what about the Nader factor in PA? Apparently he's polling better than expected nationally--will he affect the race in PA? for a good analysis of the Nader effect:

Posted by: Mary at March 9, 2004 09:44 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment