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Friday, October 31, 2003

Up Next: Michigan

Posted by DavidNYC

I'm going to forge my way through the upper Midwest here, so Michigan is next on our swing state tour. After this region, I'll do the Mississippi River Valley states, then the South, and then the West. I may not stick to this plan precisely, though - but I promise to hit all the swing states (sooner or later). In the meantime, if you have any thoughts on Michigan, please share `em. I'm inclined to think of MI as the safest of all the Dem swing states: It had the lowest percentage of Nader voters (2%) of the group, and the second-widest Gore minus Bush margin (5.14%, after WA). Of course, this doesn't mean MI is safe, so, as always, I'll reserve final judgment until I do a full-bore analysis.

Posted at 02:00 AM in Michigan | Technorati


As a resident of MI, the general feeling here seems to be that MI is extremely safe; we have one of the highest Arab-American populations in the US; this group overwhelmingly went to Bush in 2000. This time around, it's doubtful that that is going to happen. Add in the fact that we have a rather large number of socially liberal/moderate republicans here who are growing increasingly tired of Bush, and may just stay home on Election day, and it seems that the GOP has a very long, hard, possibly impossible, uphill batttle.

Posted by: BJ Chavez at October 31, 2003 09:42 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Considering the Arab American population, I would be interested to see what a Bush vs. Lieberman matchup would end up looking like in Michigan. Im from St. Louis (hence the email address) and was wondering what any Michiganers (is that proper) think about the potential outcome of that matchup, considering alot of the Iraqi immigrants that I know were happy that Bush removed Saddam. Now they can contact family they left behind or even return to Iraq. Just a question.

Posted by: Josh at November 1, 2003 12:24 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Statewide elections have been pushed Democratic also...

2002 : Granholm first Dem governor since how long?
2000: Stabenow beats Spence Abraham, who was Arab American

Michigan also has a very large pro-life emphasis. Many pro-life groups are centered there, and even Michigan Democrats have a "choose-Life"
caucus in their state legislature.

Posted by: math geek at November 1, 2003 02:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

While Arab-Americans seem pretty happy that Hussein is gone, they're by no means giving Bush a free ride on the issue--the papers here are dominated by the latest Ashcroftian harrassment of the Arab-American population....this state was one of the hardest hit by the Patriot Act. Not to mention several prominent community leaders have since been deported for "funding" terrorism...the overwhelming feel is that whatever the outcome of Iraq, Bush is not the friend of the Arab-American. While the west coast and northern parts of the state are overwhelmingly conservative/Baptist types, frankly, they just don't equal the population of the Democratic leanings here. The place to watch as the bellweather of the state is Oakland County, a fairly rich, affluent county in Southeastern MI. This is the swing area to end all swing areas--suburban, midwesterny familys, with a lot of rich, fiscally conservative socially liberal people. Remember that Michigan is a place where even the conservatives care about the enviroment(except for car companies), so many socially liberal policies aren't exactly killers here. Oakland County is a good place to gauge exactly where the independants are going to go, and where they go, so goes the state. You know that the Detroit area is going to go Dem, the West and North will go GOP....the suburbs surrounding Detroit, of which Oakland Co. is one, is where the battle will be won and lost. Expect to see a lot of campaigning there, as happens every cycle. Right now, the sentiment is that Bush is screwing up majorly , and it may swing Dem far more heavily than the past. That's a good indicator of where the state will go. Even downriver, in affluent suburbs such as Grosse Ile, and Grosse Pointe, where the GOP rules(George H.W. Bush has good friends in both communities) Bush fatigue is very, very real. They're looking for a strong fiscal conservative candidate, who can also reflect their socially liberal views. A candidate like Dean or Clark will easily take MI.(Heck, take a look at the current polls on the Dems here....Dean is easily leading the Dem pack, to give you an idea.)

Posted by: BJ Chavez at November 2, 2003 04:59 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment