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Wednesday, October 22, 2003

A Note on Methodology

Posted by DavidNYC

As I explained at the outset, the states on my list are those which had a margin of +/- 6 points in 2000. I used the (Gore + Nader) - (Bush + Buchanan) formula. I've included one outlier, Louisiana, which had an 8-point margin. Some folks have suggested I ought to include Washington as well, which had a 9-point overall margin, but which Gore won by only five points. Perhaps I will. On the flipside, some have also questioned the inclusion of states like Virginia and Tennessee, which appear to be strongly Republican.

My reason for starting with a broad list is because I want to avoid making conclusions until we've had a chance to analyze the evidence. Obviously, the Dems are a lot more likely to snag some states rather than others. We may need to pare down the list of swing states eventually. But for now, I see no harm in casting a wide net.

Posted at 06:12 PM in General | Technorati


By way of casting a big net, I would include Washington state. Its vote was fairly close in 2000, and its center waves back and forth. To date, Republicans haven't generated a gubernatorial race there, but they will have a substantial Senate race. The party's organization, which for some years was heavily dominated by the Christian right, is now led by pragmatists (which has a variety of effects). It looks more likely to go Democratic than Republican next year, but could well be a real battleground.

Posted by: stapilus at October 23, 2003 07:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Posted this on the other blog:

Don't forget that Maine doesn't do winner-take all apportionment of electoral votes. Each Congressional District winner gets 1 vote and the statewide winner gets 2. CD2 is a swing district. Gore/Bush/Nader was 47/46/6. By your methodology, I guess it's a spread of 7, not 6, but I don't know the Buchanan vote contribution.

Posted by: DaveOinSF at October 23, 2003 08:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Dave - good point. I may take a quick look at Maine's 2nd CD at then end of this project.

Posted by: DavidNYC at October 24, 2003 02:27 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment