Hoosierdem’s Doomsday House Predicts Using Professional Ratings.

I have decided to take a stab at predicting the totals of Congressional seats lost this cycle. I am going to put my formulas that I list below into the expert’s predictions to find the outcome of the upcoming election.  

As noted these are pessimistic. Consider this a worst case scenario. I myself have been saying for a while now to expect a loss in the mid fifties. Feel free to tweak the model a bit, it is not hard at all.

This is my formula for calculating Democratic seats. I see anything under tossup going to team red, most tossups breaking away from us, a significant number of lean seats and even a couple of safe members. Feel free to tell me what you think should be switched around on these. Personally I debated lowering the leans a bit. My tossup formula may be a bit on the dark side as well.

100% Lean, Likely and safe R gone.

75% tossups are gone.

40% leans D are gone.

10% Likely D are gone.

0% Safe D are gone.

This is my formula for calculating Republican seats. They keep everything under tossup. They lose half their tossups and anything above it.

0% of Lean Likely or Safe gone

50% of Tossups are gone.

100% or Lean Likely or Safe are gone.

Here goes, I am no mathematician so please correct me if you see any errors. Many answer came out in decimals. I rounded up for .5 or higher and down for .4 and lower.  

Swing State Project

Democrats

16 Lean or Likely R= 16

42 Tossups= 31.5 round to 32

32 Lean D= 12.8 round to 13

26 Likely D= 2.6 round to 3

=64 Seats Lost.

Republicans

3 Tossups= 1.5 round to 2

2 Lean D= 2

=4 seats lost.

Republicans Gain 60 seats.

Charlie Cook

Democrats

22 Lean or Likely R= 22

38 Tossups= 28.5 rounds to 29

30 Lean D= 12

25 Likely D= 2.5 rounds to 3  

=66 seats lost

Republicans

2 Tossups= 1

2 Lean D= 2

=3 seats lost

Republicans gain 63 Seats.

Rothenberg

Note- So Rothenberg uses the tossup tilts method. Well I guess I should create a new formula but I will just clump all tossups together. Also I am counting R favored as Likely R.  

Democrats

18 Lean or Likely R= 18  

42 Tossups= 31.5 round to 32

16 Lean D= 6.4 round to 6

15 Likely D= 1.5 round to 2

= 58 seats lost

Republicans

4 Tossups= 2

2 Lean or Likely D= 2

= 4 Seat Loss

Republicans gain 54 seats.

CQ

Democrats

15 Lean Likely or Safe R = 15

37 Tossups= 27.75 round to 28

24 Lean D= 9.6 round to 10

24 Likely D= 2.4 round to 2

= 55 Seat Loss

Republicans

3 Tossups= 1.5 round to 2

2 Likely D= 2

= 4 Seat Loss

Republicans gain 51 seats.

Crystal Ball

Democrats

30 Lean or Likely R= 30

29 Tossups= 21.75 round to 22.

16 Lean D= 6.4 round to 6

24 Likely D= 2.4 round to 2

= 60 Seat Loss

Republicans

2 Tossups= 1

2 Lean D= 2

=3 Seat Loss

Republicans gain 57 seats.

Real Clear Politics

Democrats

39 Lean or Likely R= 39

39 Tossups= 29.25 round to 29

29 Lean D= 11.6 round to 12  

26 Likely D= 2.6 round to 3

= 83 seat loss

Republicans

2 Tossups= 1

2 Lean D= 2

= 3 seat loss

Republicans gain 80 seats.

Real Clear Politics is by far the worst, I never like them. Averaging all of this data together Republicans gain 64 seats total. This is more than I expect but we will see. Here’s to me being wrong!  

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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16 thoughts on “Hoosierdem’s Doomsday House Predicts Using Professional Ratings.”

  1. The GOP is going to have a difficult time defending so many Freshman Representatives in a Presidential election year when the Democratic base gets energized.

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