ehstronghold’s California statewide races ratings (6/18/10)

Its time to take the SSP race ranking machine down to California, one of the major battlegrounds of the 2010 midterm elections. Democrats in California are mostly playing defense while Republicans with Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina leading their ticket see a once in a generation opportunity to make inroads in a state which was the launching pad for GOP hero Ronald Reagan’s political career. Hopefully this will be the first in a set of diaries that will chronicle the fight for California’s statewide offices. Off to the rankings now!

Edit: Next edition of this diary will take into account the special election in Senate District 15 (Abel Maldonado’s old district) if the race is forced into a runoff.

California Governor

Candidates: Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) vs. Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R)

Current ranking: Tossup

Last ranking: N/A

Right now, the job of being governor of California is not as prestigious as it once was. The governor has to deal with a legislature that is as dysfunctional as the United States Senate and has to make some very hard decisions when it comes to the budget. Yet two people are trying to become governor, Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman. Right now the most important power the governor’s office has in the eyes of partisans is redistricting. If Jerry Brown wins the governor’s office, Democrats will have the opportunity to shore up Jerry McNerney which represents a swing district anchored in the Bay Area and Central Valley and have the opportunity to gerrymander a handful of Republican incumbents who’s districts Obama won in 2008 in even more hostile territory. If Meg Whitman wins, you could see the latest round of redistricting be more like in 2002 where Democrats choose to simply shore up incumbents from both parties instead of try to gerrymander GOP congressman into seats ripe for Democratic takeover.

A couple of months ago Jerry Brown was in the driver’s seat. Then Meg Whitman pulled either slightly behind, even, or slightly ahead of Jerry Brown’s in the polls thanks to the fact she could self fund to the tune of 90 million dollars. During the GOP primary she used her massive cash advantage to wage a scorched Earth campaign against her opponent, Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner on the airwaves. (I should know, whenever you turned on the local news you always saw at least 5 Whitman ads an hour.) She held a double digit lead over Poizner for most of the campaign except for a few weeks where her poll numbers tanked over her ties to Goldman Sachs and opposition to Arizona’s immigration law but she pulled away at the end.

In the general election, Whitman shows no sign of slowing down. She went up with the first ad of the general election one day after winning the primary and expect the attack ads to go up by the end of the summer. And she pledges to spent at least $150 million of her own money on the general election.

Jerry Brown is quickly building up his warchest of $20+ million for the fall. He’s relying on the unions and independent groups to make sure Whitman does not have the airwaves to herself until he can go on the airwaves himself. The unions have already gone up on the airwaves with an ad attacking Whitman over not voting for 28 years. And the California Nurse’s Association itself is appearing at Whitman campaign events with an actor playing “Queen Meg” intending to mock Whitman.

Expect this race to be a dead heat until election day with Whitman’s ability to self fund to keep it close. Jerry Brown will have to make sure his allies and himself are not outspent by Whitman badly and hope the voters are turned off by the idea of another billionaire trying to buy their vote. And don’t expect Whitman to agree to debate Brown before the fall or maybe she’ll have a robot take her place.

United States Senate

Candidates: Senator Barbara Boxer (D) vs. Former HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R)

Current ranking: Lean Democratic

Last ranking: N/A

Barbara Boxer is facing a stiff challenge from Carly Fiorina who’s claim to fame is being fired from HP with a golden parachute. She even ended up in an Obama ad attacking McCain on CEO pay during the 2008 election. Also her campaign put out the “Demon Sheep” and “Hot Air” campaign ads which attacked Tom Campbell and Barbara Boxer respectively. Fiorina can also self fund, but she isn’t a billionaire like Meg Whitman is so she has to be a little more frugal with her money than Whitman can.

Republicans believe that Boxer is vulnerable because her approval ratings have never been that great and she can be polarizing at times. Indeed, Boxer would of been beatable if they GOP had nominated Tom Campbell instead of Fiorina who moved far to the right on the issues including the environment where she mocked Boxer’s work on climate change as simply “worried about the weather.” Even then, Boxer is no slouch when it comes to campaigning, she won a hotly contested race to succeed retiring Senator Alan Cranston by 5 points in 1992 and won by double digits in 1998 when she was expected to lose.

The race might be close right now, but expect Boxer to pull away in the coming months when the ads attacking Fiorina on her tenure at HP will be broadcasted all throughout California. She doesn’t have to go far either, HP’s headquarters is located in Silicon Valley. Even the granddaughter of one of HP’s founders said Fiorina nearly destroyed the company. And HP has made it clear who they support and it ain’t Fiorina.

Lieutenant Governor

Candidates: Lieutenant Governor Abel Maldonado (R) vs. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom (D)

Current ranking: Tossup

Last ranking: N/A

Then State Senator Abel Maldonado was appointed by Governor Schwarzenegger to the position of Lieutenant Governor after John Garamendi resigned to fill the house seat of Ellen Tausher who moved up to the state department last year. Maldonado is more ideologically in sink with Schwarzenegger than your average Republican. Schwarzenegger and Maldonado enjoyed a good working relationship with each other especially when Maldonado cast the deciding vote to pass the budget last year. He also was responsible for getting Prop 14 onto the ballot which enjoyed bipartisan opposition by both Republicans and Democrats, but passed anyway. He is the first Republican to serve as Lt. Governor in over 30 years.

Maldonado is running for a full term this November, and managed to beat State Senator Sam Aanenstad who ran to his right in the primary by 12(!) points. An impressive margin seeing that Maldonado is a moderate, voted for a tax increase, angered his party over Prop 14 and working with Schwarzenegger who isn’t held with much esteem by the base these days. He now faces off against San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom in November. Newsom was running for governor, but after seeing that he had no chance in hell of beating Jerry Brown, decided to run for Lt. Governor instead hoping to do what Gray Davis did.

Maldonado has the advantage of incumbency, the fact he is a moderate and he’s an hispanic. It’s no coincidence he called Arizona’s immigration law “over the top.” Maldonado also was a farmer in the Central Valley, a region where Obama made substancial inroads in 2008 and where Republicans need to win big in order to have a chance statewide.

Newsom is well known among Californians for his work on gay rights and the environment. He’s also an advocate for San Francisco’s sanctuary city policy, something that he would be wise to use in order to prevent a large number of Hispanics from voting for Maldonado.

Attorney General

Candidates: San Francisco DA Kamala Harris (D) vs. Los Angeles County DA Steve Cooley (R)

Current ranking: Tossup

Last ranking: N/A

In November, Californians will get to watch as San Francisco Giants DA Kamala Harris and Los Angeles Dodgers DA Steve Cooley face off at AT&T Park the ballot box to see who gets to succeed Jerry Brown. I’m defying conventional wisdom here right now by putting this race at a Tossup rather than Lean R which mostly everyone even the Harris supporters here would say. I concede that Steve Cooley’s ability to win in landslides in heavily Democrat LA county is something not to be dismissed easily, but both Harris and Cooley are not really known that well known outside the Bay Area (Harris) and LA County (Cooley). I do expect this race to move either in Cooley or Harris’ direction soon, but right now this is nothing less than a tossup.

Insurance Commissioner

Candidates: State Assemblyman Dave Jones (D) vs. (well we don’t even know yet)

Current ranking: Likely Democratic

Last ranking: N/A

The race to see who would succeed Steve Poizner as Insurance Commissioner went largely under the radar. Termed out State Assemblyman Dave Jones easily won the nomination and was the only one with the endorsement of the California Democratic Party and the only one who aired ads up here in the Bay Area. That’s not where the fun was though.

Two people ran for the GOP nomination for insurance commissioner, Assemblyman Mike Villines and Department of Insurance attorney Brian FrizGerald. Villines was the clear favorite, his opponent didn’t even spend the $5,000 that would trigger electronic reporting of campaign spending. Well on election night this was the result:

FrizGerald: 50.4%

Villines: 49.6%

And now with a bunch of provisional ballots counted:

Villines: 50.2%

FrizGerald: 49.8%

And there is still about 800,000 ballots left to count so its anyone’s guess who wins the nomination. Stay tuned for more.

Secretary of State

Candidates: Secretary of State Debra Bowen (D) vs. Damon Dunn (R)

Current ranking: Safe Democratic

Last ranking: N/A

Republican Damon Dunn had to beat back a fierce challenge from Orly Taitz, Queen of the Birthers! It was such a close election, Dunn only won by 49 points.

Anyway Debra Bowen is going to easily cruise to reelection. Dunn didn’t even care to vote until last year and this guy wants to be in charge of counting the votes? Please….

State Controller

Candidates: Controller John Chiang(D) vs. State senator Tony Strickland (R)

Current ranking: Safe Democratic

Last ranking: N/A

This a rematch of their 2006 race where Chiang beat Strickland by 10 points. (Yet GOPVOTER likes to say the election was somehow close). Strickland was convinced into doing a rematch by his good friend Meg Whitman. Question is, is Chiang going to win by a larger margin this time? Strickland has nothing to lose though, he’s up for reelection to the state senate in 2012.

State Treasurer

Candidates: State Treasurer Bill Lockyer (D) vs. State Senator Mimi Walters (R)

Current ranking: Safe Democratic

Last ranking: N/A

Bill Lockyer, who has been in state government for longer since I’ve been alive is facing off against State Senator Mimi Walters. He’ll easily beat her and probably won’t have to spent much of his $8.6 million warchest to do it. He’s probably preparing himself for a run for governor when he’s termed out of the State Treasurer’s office.  

30 thoughts on “ehstronghold’s California statewide races ratings (6/18/10)”

  1. Are you also going to do one for possibly competitive State Senate and Assembly districts? Very nice overview for those, like myself, who are unfamiliar with CA politics.  

  2. Could you tell me if you think Whitman’s spending of her wealth will be a turnoff to voters? I mean I personally thinks it looks like she is trying to purchase the Governor’s mansion. Do you think voters will see it this way? I think a good attack add Jerry Brown could do is him walking and saying something like “While Meg Whitman tries to buy your votes with the money she made from Goldman Sachs I am out talking about the issues facing the people of this great state. Meg Whitman offers good commercials, I offer experience”.

  3. On the whole, I agree with your assessment. I suspect, ultimately, Boxer will put it out fairly comfortably, though I’d give the edge to the GOP in the Gov/Lt.Gov./AG races. Otherwise, Dem wins down-the-line.

  4. In this moment I would rate these races as:

    CA-Sen: Leans Democratic

    CA-Gov: Leans Democratic

    CA-LG: Toss-Up leaning democratic

    CA-AG: Toss-Up

    CA-IC: Toss-Up leaning democratic

    CA-SS: Safe Democratic

    CA-SC: Safe Democratic

    CA-ST: Safe Democratic

    With the self-financing of M Withman and C Fiorina, the republicans can take financial advantage in other statewide races like the race for Attorney General. Here is the highest risk for the democratic side.

    While I think the race for Lieutenant Governor start from a Toss-Up before the polls, I think G Newsom should be able for link A Maldonado to A Schwarzenegger and lead the polls without high risk.

    Of course very interested in the republican primary for Insurance Commissioner. Very interesting recount.

  5. Gov.: Jerry Brown wins here, but it will be close. If Whitman completely dodges all debates and just runs negative ads, it’s a little bit easier. Brown must make her play defense.

    Senate: Boxer would have had more of a race against Campbell, but she’ll have less of one against Fiorina. With unemployment on the front burner, Fiorina’s outsourcing won’t be overlooked. I think Boxer wins with a decent majority.

    Lt. Gov.: Maldonado is a moderate, which gives him an edge, but a lot of conservative Republicans don’t particularly care for him and some of it might just leave the spot blank on the ballot. There’s a Republican edge in this race, but Gavin Newsom still has a very good shot.

    Atty. Gen.: With Steve Cooley in this race, it makes things harder for Kamala Harris. LA County is critical to any Democrat winning statewide and Cooley’s going to perform better here than other statewide Republicans.

    Insurance Commissioner: Honestly, this one could go either way, neither the Democratic or potential Republican candidates have strong name ID.

    Secretary of State: Couldn’t agree more, Debra Bowen is very safe here.

    Controller: Strickland was recruited because Republicans wanted to have a credible candidate in every statewide race, but credible doesn’t equal formidable and Chiang will win again. I doubt Strickland really thinks he’ll win, he’s just biding his time until Elton Gallegly retires in CA-24.

    Treasurer: Agreed.

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