Today, the NRCC added 32 candidates to its Young Guns program:
| District | Candidate | Incumbent | PVI | 2008 (D) Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR-02 | Tim Griffin | Snyder | R+5 | 53% |
| AZ-08 | Jesse Kelly | Giffords | R+4 | 12% |
| CO-07 | Ryan Frazier | Perlmutter | D+4 | 27% |
| CT-05 | Justin Bernier | Murphy, C. | D+2 | 15% |
| FL-22 | Allen West | Klein | D+1 | 9% |
| IL-10 | Beth Coulson | OPEN | D+6 | -5% |
| IL-10 | Bob Dold | OPEN | D+6 | -5% |
| IL-10 | Dick Green | OPEN | D+6 | -5% |
| IL-14 | Ethan Hastert | Foster | R+1 | 16% |
| IN-09 | Todd Young | Hill | R+6 | 19% |
| MI-07 | Tim Walberg | Schauer | R+2 | 2% |
| MO-03 | Ed Martin | Carnahan | D+7 | 36% |
| MO-04 | Bill Stouffer | Skelton | R+14 | 32% |
| MO-04 | Vickie Hartzler | Skelton | R+14 | 32% |
| MS-01 | Alan Nunnelee | Childers | R+14 | 11% |
| NC-08 | Lou Huddleston | Kissell | R+2 | 11% |
| NY-01 | Randy Altschuler | Bishop | R+0 | 17% |
| NY-13 | Michael Allegretti | McMahon | R+4 | 28% |
| NY-19 | Nan Hayworth | Hall | R+3 | 17% |
| NY-29 | Tom Reed | Massa | R+5 | 2% |
| OH-16 | Jim Renacci | Boccierri | R+4 | 11% |
| OH-18 | Bob Gibbs | Space | R+7 | 20% |
| OR-01 | Rob Cornilles | Wu | D+8 | 54% |
| PA-06 | Steven Welch | OPEN | D+4 | -4% |
| PA-07 | Pat Meehan | OPEN | D+3 | 19% |
| TN-04 | Scott DesJarlais | Davis, L. | R+13 | 21% |
| TN-08 | Stephen Fincher | Tanner | R+6 | 100% |
| VA-02 | Scott Rigell | Nye | R+5 | 5% |
| VA-11 | Keith Fimian | Connolly | D+2 | 12% |
| WI-03 | Dan Kapanke | Kind | D+4 | 29% |
| WI-07 | Sean Duffy | Obey | D+3 | 22% |
| WI-08 | Reid Ribble | Kagen | R+2 | 8% |
These candidates have all been added to the bottom rung of the NRCC’s list, which they call “On the Radar.” The Republican House campaign committee has also bumped up nine previously-added names to their middle tier, “Contenders”:
| District | Candidate |
|---|---|
| AL-02 | Martha Roby |
| CO-04 | Cory Gardner |
| FL-12 | Dennis Ross |
| ID-01 | Vaughn Ward |
| MD-01 | Andy Harris |
| NH-01 | Frank Guinta |
| NM-02 | Steve Pearce |
| OH-01 | Steve Chabot |
| OH-15 | Steve Stivers |
Of those initial thirteen picks, four didn’t make the jump: Van Tran (CA-47), Adam Kinzinger (IL-11), Charles Djou (HI-01), and Jon Barela (NM-01). (Kinzinger, for what it’s worth, has been officially endorsed by the NRCC, the only candidate other than Dennis Ross in FL-12 to be so honored.) Two other dudes who were added later (but before this round) also stay put: David Harmer (CA-10) and Greg Ball (NY-19). I have to believe this means the GOP is writing off any hope of a stunning Harmer upset in next week’s special election.
Interestingly, the NRCC seems to have no reservations about naming more than one candidates running in the same race to their program – they’ve done so in IL-10, MO-04, and NY-19. This is something I don’t recall the DCCC doing with Red to Blue over the past couple of cycles. However, all of these multiple-choice challengers are still only at the “On the Radar” level. I wouldn’t be surprised if the NRCC narrowed things down if certain candidates started to show more promise than others.
Wow, they just don’t get it, do they? The Beltway refused to believe that Bradley was even vulnerable in 2006, gasped and tsk’ed when dirty grassroots hippie CSP beat him, wrote her off as gone in the ’08 rematch, sighed and wagged their fingers at CSP for beating him again, and now the NRCC is seriously bumping up this race to “contender” even though Guinta has been nothing if not an absolute trainwreck of a candidate and CSP still has the same grassroots network in place that’s made her career.
Well, good. If they insist on wasting more money here, let ’em. Let this race be the futile money pit for the NRCC that New Jersey always turns into for the NRSC. Serves ’em right.
Also, interesting to see that Pete Sessions thinks that ID-01 and MD-01 are merely middle tier races. Personally, I think he’s right. We’re way more likely to lose a few underperformers in swing districts like Kilroy and Arcuri than we are to lose either of those guys, both of whom seem a lot more like Chet Edwards than Nick Lampson.
they would get anyone but Andy Harris. Harris lost this R+13 district in 2008 because he was too extreme.
Maybe I didn’t read this right but if ID-01 and AL-02 are in the middle tier who’s in the top tier?
….considering Michael Grimm (whose resume sounds far impressive) just put his foot in the door just recently and is being supported by former Borough President and still powerful Republican power broker Guy Molinari.
http://www.silive.com/news/adv…
I see no names for a few Ds that I think may be vulnerable in 2010, such as Scott Murphy (NY-20), Dina Titus (NV-03) and Tom Perrillo (VA-05).
Perhaps they just don’t have names in these districts, or are the candidates “too old” to be a “young gun”?
Altschuler really worries me in my district as hes willing to spend a ton of money and the district is very swingy.
This district should be a Republican District. We have our own “young gun” a political novice named Bill Hudak who has left a successful law practice to run as a solid conservative Republican challenger here in the heart of liberalism. Hudak out raised the incumbent Tierney during the last quarter and is building a solid grass roots base. There will be another shot heard round the world coming from MA next year.
Yeah, okay.
ha.
how the GOP has somehow managed to convince themselves that they are going to knock off Ike Skelton. Really dumb of them too, since they should be favored to win the seat anyway when he eventually retires.
Seriously?
Did Tanner run unopposed or something?
what’s up with Lincon Davis’s poor fundraising? He’s raised less than $300K for the whole cycle and has only $121K on hand, just slightly more than Desjarlais.
Right, they couldn’t knock off Giffords with the State Senate Majority Leader last cycle, even though he ran a great campaign and raised lots of money. So now they’re going to beat her with some no-name Iraq War veteran who can’t raise any money. Right. Keep on dreamin’, Republicans.
What I don’t understand is why they’d add Jesse Kelly to this list but not David Schweikert in AZ-05. Schweikert is exactly the sort of candidate where the NRCC should get in the primary and endorse him and try to clear the field. Last time he got bloodied in the primary by a bunch of ridiculous lobbyist-funded candidates with no support in the district, and still only lost by single digits. With a clear shot this time and a better electoral climate, he could pull it off.
Or they could endorse Rusty Bowers in AZ-01. I still don’t think Bowers will turn out to be more than an empty suit given his complete lack of ties to the district, but Kirkpatrick is a freshman Congresswoman in an R-leaning district who hasn’t demonstrated the kind of prodigious fundraising ability Giffords has. If she isn’t defeated this cycle, she could very easily be there for life.
But no, they come in for Jesse Kelly in AZ-08. Real good thinking, Pete Sessions. Tip of the hat to you.