"Dede Scozzafava, the GOP nominee in a key upcoming House special election, is running dangerously low on campaign cash, according to several GOP sources familiar with her spending and fundraising."
Interestingly the article goes on to say that the RNC has sent only two staffers and hasn't contributed a cent to the race. Owens is outspending her 12-1. Even Hoffman has spent more. The NRCC is trying to make up the difference but even they have been overtaken by the DCCC.
"Despite a recent poll showing the GOP nominee with a 7-point lead over Owens, the spending disparity has many Republicans downbeat about her prospects."
I have to say I'm surprised at this. You would think the RNC would be flooding cash into the district to try and get a clean sweep of all the big races on November 3. Politico suggests they are concentrating on the gubernatorial races but that seems dubious at best. Maybe they just don't want her to win. I know I don't.
This doesn't surprise. A lot of people, including people here in New York, have made the same argument. Part of it has to do with a lack of research on Scozzafava. The other half of it is a lack of information on the Democratic candidate Bill Owens, who conservatives call "liberal" and some progressives like Markos have called a "Blue Dog."
After reading Markos' post multiple times, it seems he uses the following as important points for his "liberal" labeling of Scozzafava.
Five weeks from election day and Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava (R) leads Bill Owens (D) by seven points with Doug Hoffman (C) trailing in the first independent poll of the special election to replace Army Secretary John McHugh in the House of Representatives for New York's 23rd District.
The topline numbers from the Siena College Research Institute (LV, 9/27-29, MoE 3.9%) are:
"This is a wide open race. One in five voters is currently undecided. Add to that the fact that one-third of Scozzafava's current supporters and one-quarter of Owens's current supporters say they are not very certain of their choice and that they very well may change their minds between now and Election Day."
I think it fair to say this is a total tossup, particulary with the better known Scozzafava having such a small lead. I will update with more thoughts when I've poured over some of the internals.
UPDATE
Looking at the 2008 presidential race in the district we find Obama won Clinton, Essex, Franklin, Madison, Oswego and St. Lawrence counties. McCain carried Fulton, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lewis and Oneida.
The three-way makes it difficult to extrapolate but Scozzafava leads big in the West (which is where her Assembly district is located) matching McCain in Jefferson and Lewis counties but also in St. Lawrence where Obama won big.
On the contrary Owens leads in some of the central counties she represents and which McCain won, namely Madison, Oneiga and Oswego.
The good news is they are tied in places Obama won big - Clinton, Essex and Franklin. As andgarden mentions in the comments Obama is popular in the district so if people there get to know Owens and like what they hear I think there is a good chance he can take this one.
On the flipside McCain did well in Fulton and Hamilton so Owens is overperforming there though I suspect that has more to do with Hoffman taking conservative votes.
UPDATE 2
Favorables are interesting. Scozzafava clocks in at 33-20-47, favorable, unfavorable, no opinion. Hopefully Hoffman's kamikaze act helps make people form a negative opinion.
Owens is at 23-12-64 so significantly more room to grow. Hoffman at 16-13-71.
Top issues, economy and health care, unsuprisingly, and the candidates are split.
McHugh's endorsement would be key according to the numbers but if Obama comes out for Owens is it at all likely he will oppose his new boss? Interesting.
Survey USA's poll showing Nikki Tsiongas only leading Jim Ogonowski 51-41%, has given me (and should give Democrats) some pause.
And frankly, the Democrats have underperformed in
special elections this year. In GA-10, the runoff was between two Republicans. We lost a seat in the NY state assembly. Additionally, the
Dallas mayor's race was a terrible result.
If this seat goes Republican, especially to a candidate who says we should be in Iraq indefinitely, this may be a bad omen for holding on to the House next year.
Given that the GOP has their strongest possible
candidate with 9/11 connections (his brother piloted one of the planes that crashed into the World Trade Center), is this a race to worry about? Comments appreciated, especially those with some local knowledge.
Just in case you missed it, eight-term Democratic Rep. Marty Meehan has announced that he will resign from Congress in July to become the next chancellor of the University of Massachusetts-Lowell, which means that we will have a special election on tap to fill his seat within 160 days of the vacancy.
A few words about Meehan: ProgressivePunch gave him a rating of 87%, which is by no means bad, but that only fits him about midway in the Democratic caucus in terms of progressive voting patterns. For a D+11 Massachusetts district, one would think that he could have afforded to play to the base a bit more. My biggest knock against Marty, though, was his utter selfishness during the netroots-led "Use It Or Lose It" campaign last fall to arm the DCCC with the additional resources it needed to help expand the battlefield in closing weeks of the 2006 elections. Despite sitting on a $5+ million warchest, Meehan only gave a paltry $125,000 (PDF) to the DCCC during the last cycle, and dug his heels in the ground while his House colleagues, such as fellow Massachusetts Rep. Barney Frank, donated up to 30% of their cash-on-hand on top of their required dues. Like a squirrel burrowing more seeds than he could use underground for the winter, so too did Meehan cling to his oversized war chest in the hope that he could use it in the event of a Ted Kennedy or John Kerry retirement (which did not happen for Kennedy in '06, and won't for Kerry next year, either). So, after all those months of stinginess to his fellow Democrats, Meehan won't be able to use his warchest, anyway. One wonders what will become of the $5m+. Gifts to the DCCC, DSCC and other Democratic candidates? Or will he hide it under the earth once more, hoping for a Kennedy retirement in 2012? I'll let you guess the answer.
In any event, it'll be a new day for MA-05. The question is: which one of the following names is both a suitably progressive Democrat and a team player?
Politicians eager to fill Meehan's seat have wasted no time positioning themselves for a run, with at least 10 candidates flirting with a potential campaign. The list of Democrats include Niki Tsongas, wife of the late US senator Paul Tsongas; state Representative Barry R. Finegold of Andover; Eileen Donoghue, the former Lowell mayor and current city councilor; state Representative James B. Eldridge of Acton; and Stephen Kerrigan, a former aide to Senator Edward M. Kennedy and to Attorney General Thomas Reilly.
