Recently, I saw quite a few redistricting maps, especially on Maryland. Here is my perspective. Instead of playing it safe, I went all out for an 8-0 map. The Democrats are in control and may try for a map like this. I know what you are thinking; it will be too difficult for Democrats to hold. I feel that I definitely made each Democrat's district safe enough for them without throwing the VRA down the drain. The Democrats have large majorities in the State Legislature and if they retain the Governorship, this map is realistic. Enough chatter, here are the maps.
District 1 Frank Kratovli (D) Blue
This district did go to the western shore to pick up population. Yet it picked up heavily Republican areas to keep out of the 2nd and 3rd districts. Now that Maryland is trending Democratic, adding Republican areas to other districts will be offset by Democratic margins. This left me free to slip in Democratic Annapolis into Kratovli's district as well as a hunk of Prince George's County. These changes raised the Black percentage from 11% to 24%. If a Republican could not win in a district that is 11% Black, watch him or her try to win in a district with Prince George's County. Obama probably won 54% of the vote here. Demographics are 24% Black and 67% White. Status is Likely Democrat.
District 2 Dutch Ruppersburger (D) Green
His district is less gerrymandered but should be safe. I added some Republican areas of Baltimore and Harford Counties but I slipped in more of Baltimore City. These changes should make the district a little more Republican. Ruppersburger is a popular representative and should handle himself. Obama probably won 53%-54% of the vote here. Demographics are 22% Black and 69% White. Status is Safe/Likely Democrat.
District 3 John Sarbanes (D) Reddish Purple
Okay, I see the flaws. Yes, I know I took Sarbanes's home out of the district. I had to because the district would be too convoluted if I kept it. I also know that Carroll County is heavily Republican. I included Democratic territory in Howard County which should offset Republican margins in Carroll County and more. For any more Republican areas, Baltimore City should offset their margins. Bartlett is Sarbanes is the son of longtime former Senator Paul Sarbanes (D). I do not see Sarbanes losing here anytime soon. Obama probably won 56% of the vote here. Demographics are 23% Black, 5% Asian and 65% White. Status is Safe/Likely Democrat.
District 4 Donna Edwards (D) Red
Her district extends into Republican Frederick County but Edwards should be content. The 4th district is VRA protected. Obama probably won 73% of the vote here. Demographics are 50% Black, 5% Asian, 9% Hispanic and 33% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
District 5 Steny Hoyer (D) Yellow
I took out northeastern Prince George's County and pushed the district into Republican parts of Anne Arundel County. I only reduced the Black percentage by 1% and should probably get higher in the mid 2010's because of Blacks moving into Prince George and Charles counties. Hoyer and is successor are safe. Obama probably won 60% of the vote here. Demographics are 29% Black and 62% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
District 6 Vacant Teal
No current representative lives here. Even though I put in some heavily Republican counties in western Maryland, I more than erased that margin by 60% of this district in heavily Democratic Montgomery County. I slipped in about 84,000 people in Prince George's County just to ensure Democratic votes. That area gave Chris Van Hollen (D) his winning margin against Connie Morella (R) so it had to be in this district to ensure it will vote Democratic. Mark Shriver (D) might want to run in this district. It would be nice to have another Kennedy in Congress. Obama probably won 62% of the vote here. Demographics are 13% Black, 8% Asian, 14% Hispanic and 61% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
District 7 Elijah Cummings (D)
This district is BARELY protected the VRA. I tried to squeeze in as many Republican precincts as I could while keeping the Black percentage at 50% or above. This district used to go into Howard County but now takes in Republican suburbs in Baltimore, Carroll and Harford Counties. Since almost all the Baltimore precincts in the 7th voted around 90% for Obama, Cummings should be very safe. Obama probably won 67% of the vote here. Demographics are 50% Black and 43% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
District 8 Chris Van Hollen (D) vs. Roscoe Bartlett (R) Purple
Bartlett is 83 years old and about 63% of the 8th district is in Montgomery County, Van Hollen's home base. Bartlett can campaign as a moderate but I see Montgomery County voters sticking with Van Hollen. With Bartlett out of the picture, Van Hollen should have an easy ride to reelection. Obama probably won 63% of the vote here. Demographics are 16% Black, 10% Asian, 13% Hispanic and 58% White. Status is Safe/Likely Democrat if Bartlett decides to run, Safe Democrat without Bartlett.
The primary goals of any partisan redistricting should be to, first, protect endangered incumbents; and, secondly, maximize your seats without spreading your votes too thin to risk losing seats in a wave election. Of the Republican gerrymanders after 2000, the Michigan map (where the GOP legislature aimed for a 9-6 split) held up much better than Pennsylvania.
My map aims for a 13-5 split in normal years, and possibly a 14-4 split. It shores up Bean, Foster, and Halverson. It throws Mark Kirk and Jan Schakowsky together in the new CD-1, which Schakowsky would easily prevail; and Peter Roskam and Judy Biggert together in the new CD-11, which is designed to elect a Republican. It creates a new district centered in northern Chicago and the northwest Cook suburbs that are heavily trending Democratic. Lastly, Downstate it puts Aaron Schock's congressional career in jeopardy by combining Peoria with Decatur, Champlain, and Bloomington while trading Republican farm territory with Shimkus and Johnson.
Oh, and one more thing, I renumbered all the districts in logical order - it doesn't make much sense to me that Jerry Costello's current district is the #12 while #1-11 and the 13th are all in Chicago or Suburban Chicago.
With Missouri most likely dropping a seat and with the redistricting authority evenly split between the Democratic Governor and Republican Legislature, incumbency protection and relatively even numbers of safe and swing districts should be considered priorities. Plus, with the political battles likely to be intense enough to be settled by an independent-ish panel, I figured that drawing geographically-sensical boundaries would also be important.
Therefore, I tried to keep each county in the same district (which I did successfully, barring the expected biggies--Kansas City's Jackson and St. Louis city and county). This was done as a proxy for the "communities of interest" standard that seems to crop up when redistricting time rolls around, but I ain't a lawyer and don't know about no redistrictin'.
Ok, so this is my first redistricting diary not focused on Michigan. I chose the state of South Carolina for several reasons, it's relatively small, it will probably gain a seat, and that new seat may be a Majority-Minority seat. I don't know if the DOJ will require a new Min-Maj seat, or what the recent Supreme Court decision has to do with this.
The rest of the map I drew with a Republican gerrymander in mind. I tried to dislodge Rep. Spratt, and I think that I was probably successful. I also made Rep. Brown and Rep. Wilson safer, in light of their recent competitive races last year.
This map is incredibly gerrymandered. I mean incredibly. I don't know much about SC, so let me know if I've done something wrong.
Lately there has been a lot of Debate over the number of Democratic Congressional Districts that Democrats could gerrymander out of the state of Michigan if they had complete control (right now they hold the Governorship and State House. They stand a good chance at taking control of the State Senate while the Governor's race is a tossup). A few people, namely IHateBush, have said that it is possible to succesfully draw a map that would yield 12 Democratic seats and only 2 Republican seats. I've been trying for several weeks to draw a 12-2 map, meanwhile protecting endangered incumbents (specifically Schauer) and I've determined that a 12-2 map would be far overeaching and in a neutral or Republican leaning year might end up 9-5 or worse. I think the best Michigan Democrats could do is create 11 safe or Democrat leaning districts and 3 strongly Republican districts. I've drawn a map that I think does just that, although I still am not entirely confident that we could hold both of my "Thumb" districts in a Republican year. But without further ado, here's my map.
A Yale law school student proposes an idea called The OpenRedistricting Project that I suspect may be near and dear to the hearts of many SSP readers:
The OpenRedistricting Project has two separate, but interdependent, components. The development of user-friendly, free redistricting software is a necessary step for bringing ordinary citizens into the process. Once that is completed, a social networking site dedicated to monitoring the 2010 redistricting cycle should be created. With these new platforms, the netroots will have a seat at the redistricting table.
The post goes on to explain the concept in much greater detail.
Just the possibility of getting free redistriciting software makes me fully supportive of the idea. But the potential to create public awareness and public pressure for better redistricting seems to have real promise for making a difference. I'm not sure if there's anything that can be done at the moment to move the ball forward on this idea, but just wanted to bring this to the attention of SSP readers.
I know redistricting diaries are a dime a dozen these days, but I'm going to do one that has never been done before: Michigan (assuming full Democratic control of the process). Nathaniel90 already drew a split control compromise map found here: http://www.swingstateproject.c...
Michigan will be losing a seat in 2012, going from 15 to 14. I think the chances of full Democratic control is about 50-50 or maybe slightly better. It looks like we have a very good shot at taking back control of the State Senate, while the Governors race is still pretty much up in the air, with presumptive nominee John Cherry lagging in the most recent poll. But this far out, no one can predict this one yet.
By this map Democrats would presumably hold a 9-5 advantage in Representation. They currently hold a 8-7 Advantage. In 2002, when Republicans drew the map, they (Rs) held a 9-6 advantage. My map protects freshmen Gary Peters and Mark Schauer, while throwing Dave Camp and Mike Rogers into a district together. It also draws a much more Democratic district for Thaddeus McCotter (or his Democratic successor), presumably eliminating him if he isn't already gone by 2012.
My map was drawn on microsoft paint, and some of the more detailed borders aren't exact. Also my computer has some kind of problem with pixelation or something, so it may appear a little blurry. Without further ado, here's my map with district profiles down below the flip.
