Fundraising in the cycle before an election can give us signs of who is thinking about retirement or who is planning for a tough re-election. Looking through 2009-2010 FEC reports for 2012 Senate candidates contains some surprises about incumbents assumed to be likely 2012 retirements, such as Dianne Feinstein and Ben Nelson. Below you can find the fundraising, cash on hand, and debt of every incumbent senator up for re-election in 2012, with the exception of Kirsten Gillibrand, who first has to win a 2010 election and West Virginia, where we do not know who the incumbent will be.
I will arrange it by the amount (least to greatest) that the Senator has raised this cycle:
Senator- Raised this cycle- Cash on Hand- Debt
(D-HI)Daniel Akaka- $19,000- $78,050- $0
(R-TX)Kay Bailey Hutchison- $77,788- $50,628- $0
(I-CT)Joe Lieberman- $81,721- $1,261,561- $0
(D-NM)Jeff Binjaman- $147,146- $366,018- $0
(D-WI)Herb Kohl*- $198,207- $15,549- $0
(I-VT)Bernie Sanders- $259,622- $141,661- $0
(R-WY)John Barrasso- $384,215- $554,739- $0
(R-ME)Olympia Snowe- $407,009- $1,085,714- $0
(R-NV)John Ensign- $444,161- $961,247- $0
(R-IN)Dick Lugar- $464,852- $2,350,060- $0
(R-AZ)Jon Kyl- $562,490- $600,327- $0
(D-MD)Ben Cardin- $613,752- $379,594- $0
(D-ND)Kent Conrad- $616,187- $1,905,346- $0
(D-VA)Jim Webb- $688,356- $509,959- $0
(D-DE)Tom Carper- $734,118- $935,791- $0
(D-MT)Jon Tester- $844,975- $500,768- $0
(D-RI)Sheldon Whitehouse- $855,136- $589,527- $0
(R-MS)Roger Wicker- $919,844- $401,796- $0
(D-MO)Claire McCaskill- $1,087,857- $793,586- $0
(D-WA)Maria Cantwell*- $1,111,117- $316,029- $2,180,161
(D-NE)Ben Nelson- $1,218,005- $1,180,852- $0
(R-UT)Orrin Hatch- $1,286,657- $2,300,247- $0
(D-MN)Amy Klobuchar- $1,351,502- $1,307,076- $0
(D-PA)Bob Casey- $1,379,122- $876,815- $0
(R-TN)Bob Corker- $1,406,025- $$796,477- $0
(D-CA)Dianne Feinstein- $1,492,719- $3,641,409- $0
(D-OH)Sherrod Brown- $1,695,542- $1,442,660- $0
(D-FL)Bill Nelson- $1,736,308- $2,712,340- $0
(D-MI)Debbie Stabenow- $1,880,157- $$1,407,087- $8,303
(D-NJ)Bob Menendez- $2,207,492- $2,036,673- $0
(R-MA)Scott Brown- $17,005,388- $6,034,498- $158,513
*Ability and willingness to self-fund
Scott Brown raised a huge amount of money in the run up to the MA special election, so much that he couldn’t spend it all. He had about 5 million left over immediately after the election, and has added an addition million to his campaign account since then. He heads into 2011 with the largest bank account of any senator up for re-election in 2012, other than Gillibrand, who has an election this year.
Incumbents Ben Nelson, Dianne Feinstein, Orrin Hatch, Tom Carper, and Olympia Snowe, all retirement possibilities in 2012, have raised decent amounts of money for their campaigns so far. Senators Daniel Akaka, Jeff Binjaman, Joe Lieberman, and Kay Bailey Hutchison, all retirement possibilities, are not raising much money. Hutchison has already announced her retirement, but she also announced her resignation two years ago. Dick Lugar and John Ensign, both considered very likely retirements, are still raising money. Herb Kohl is also considered a potential retirement in 2012, but it is difficult to tell from his fundraising reports, since he self-funds all of his bids.
is up with Cantwell’s debt?
and the loser of the Senate race this year jumps in. As with all of Feingolds races it will be close.
Akaka
Hutchison
Kohl
Snowe
Ensign
Lugar
Carper
Someone unexpected will call it quits, too. My top four possibilities:
Webb
Barrasso
Cardin
Stabenow
He’ll be 68 in 2012 and will have been in the Senate for 30 years. He’s a committee chairman, but if it looks like the GOP is in position to retake the Senate in 2012, he may not want to go back to the minority. With Obama atop the ballot, this would be a pretty easy hold for someone like Heinrich, Lujan, or even Denish.
It makes perfect sense, when you think about it: the guy’s only 5 days younger than Daniel Inouye, but Inouye, as the highest ranking Dem on Appropriations, has a reason to stay in the Senate until he drops. Akaka’s done his time and can retire quietly to a Hawaiian beach somewhere and relax for the rest of his life. And being that Obama will carry Hawaii in 2012 by probably about the same margin he did in 2008, 2012 is the perfect cycle for him to quit and make sure Dems retain his seat.
I think Kohl calls it quits, too, and Tommy Thompson gets in – why else would he beg off challenging Feingold, but still indicate his interest in a Senate seat?
This at least shows us a lot of the shape of 2012. MA will be a hot race, but more difficult than it should be because of Brown’s enormous cash advantage and the potential for the same dysfunction in the state Democratic party that got him the seat in the first place. MT will be a hot race – $850k is a LOT for Montana. I wonder what Rehberg’s bank account looks like right now. Same with VA – $688k isn’t particularly exceptional for the DC media market, and the GOP really wants this seat back. We’ll see.
It’s also likely that Cantwell, the Nelsons, Stabenow, Menendez, and a few others will escape serious challenges just because of their ridiculous cash advantage.
Finally, 1.4 mil isn’t a lot for California, and a person as well-connected as Dianne Feinstein doesn’t necessarily have to solicit that kind of money. She could still be a retirement possibility.
Lugar announced today he’s running for reelection. Things can change … but that’s inline with his fundraising numbers.
Cantwell and Kohl were self-funders.