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Independent expenditures: one key to a landslide

by: David Kowalski

Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 2:30 AM EDT

Federal Election Commission data excludes "independent expenditures" for candidates .  Include that, however, and the picture looks much better for Democrats who are dominating Independent Expenditures by a large margin.  Combining data from SSP's IE Tracker with 3rd quarter FEC exenditures and the oicture gets clearer and happier.

Take NY-25 where Alice Kryzan won a surprising primary win.  Kryzan has been outspent about 2-1 by Christopher Lee (1,062 K to 528 K).  Lee is one of the larger self funders among GOP House candidates furnishing $650 K.  And yet, the advantage of Mr. Moneybags is eliminated if one counts the huge 884 to 77 Democratic lead in independent expenditures in the district.  It is Lee who has been outspent by a 1412 k to 1139 k margin.

Other NY House seats show a similar trend.  Eric Massa has outspent the increasingly desperate Randy Kuhl by a solid 1261 K to 883 K margin.  But Kuhl also faces a 182 k to 87 K deficit for independent expenditures putting him behind 1446 K to 970 K for double barrelled expenditures.  Dan Maffei in NY-25 stretches his lead from 1364 K to 197 K to 1509 K to 197 K.  I didn't even record NY-13 because I only followed competitive money races.

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