Do Primaries Help or Hurt in the General? : A Look at 51 House races from 2006

David Kowalski — Sun, 25 May 2008 16:35:25 GMT

The general belief seems to be that it is important to "clear the field" in primaries to get a winning hand in the fall general election. The belief is founded on a number of factors. Many interest groups will not back a candidate with a primary election opponent. Primary election campaigns can be costly and challengers generally have less money to spend than incumbents. Anecdotal evidence points to a number of campaigns easch cycle where a strong primary is followed by disappointing results in the fall.

I decided to test this thesis by looking at election results for all 31 Democratic pickups in the House during the 2006 cycle (including Peter Welch as a pickup in Vermont) and comparing the results to close losses. The close losses were not systenmatic but I looked at 20 races that fit the bill.

Overall, 14 of the 31 pickups (45%) were preceded by primary elections, a higher than expected number. Although some of these were blowouts, a surprising number were close and in many cases surprise winners emerged despite less money. As a comparison, among the 20 close but losing elections only seven (35%) were preceded by primaries and only one of those was close: the Tammy Duckworth-Christine Cegelis- Scott duel in IL-6.
Adding fuel to the fire, IIRC, all 3 of our special election vitories were preceded by primaries. Bill Foster's win in IL-14 (at least for November) against John Laesch, was a much tougher battle than his win against Jim Oberweis.

A listing and some commentary follow with emphasis on upsets and close races.

The only primary that mattered in the New England House races mattered a good deal. Carol Shea-Porter surprised Jim Craig in a multi-candidate field and then won a close election to the House with just $290,000 in campaign expenditures (being outspent nearly 4:1). Nobody knows if the better known, more establishment Craig would have pulled it off. Shea-Porter depended mostly on volunteers and a lot of shoe leather, particularly her own. Her personal efforts in Manchester vs. Craig going door to door and bar to bar certainly paid off in both the general election and in the primary, itself.

NH-2 (Hodes) and the CT races (Joe Courtney, CT-2; Chris Murphy, CT-5, and Diane Farrell, CT-4 were all uncontested.

New York had six major races with three pickups and three close loses. Only one had a primary and that produced what was seeen on the blogs as an upset. In NY-19, John Hall won rather easily in a multi-candidate field converting his years as a local official and rock star status (singer with the band Orleans famous for "You're the One") into a comfortable victory over the much better funded Judy Aydelott and others (I remember Ben Shuldiner). NY-20(Kirsten Gillibrand),24 (Michael Arcuri), 25 (Dan Maffei),26 (Jack Davis), and 29 (Eric Massa) were uncontested. Gillibrand and Arcuri won in the fall.

PA produced four wins and one close loss. Two of the four winners (Jason Altmire and Patrick Murphy) faced primary challengers. Altmire got a fairly sturdy challenge besting Georgia Berner 55% to 45% en route to dethroning Melissa Hart in PA-4. Murphy had an easier time over Andrew Warren 65% to 35%. Lois Murphy had a token challenge against Anrew Leibowitz (76% to 24%) prior to losing versus Jim Gerlach in PA-6.

Elsewhere in the Northeast, Linda Stender had no primary but lost closely to Mikrke Ferguson in NJ-7. Peter Welch, a general election winner in VT also faced no primary.

Lest we forget, in OH-18 Zach Space coasted to an easy win in November but many thought Joe Sulzer would be the likely nominee. Space won in a multi candidate field. Only one of three close losers in OH faced a primary (Vic Wulsin who won in a multi candidate field including Thor Jacobs and Jim Parker). John Cranley and Mary Jo Kilroy had an open path to the general election.

Both Joe Donnelly and Baron Hill faced easy primaries and Brad Ellsworth went unopposed among three Indiana pickups. Tim Walz in Minnesota was also unopposed but Steve Kagen had to claw his way through a multi-candidate field including Wall and Nussbaum. I remember a lot of people touting Nussbaum.

Tammy Duckworth spent a bundle to secure the Democratic nomination by just 1,000 votes over Christine Cegelis. And provided a disappointing loss in November. Tim Walz in MN-1 had a clear field but Steve Kagen had to beat a multi-candidate field before he clould allegedly tell Karl Rove he was Dr. Multi-Millionaire.

John Yarmuth got 53% in a primary vs. Andrew Horne and others before taking on Anne Northrup in KY-3. Heath Shuler coasted through his primary but Tim Mahoney and Ron Klein in Florida got free rides. Close losers in the south also had to earn their way in with larry Kissell having an easy time but Christine Jennings (61%) drawing 2004 nominee Jan Schneider (39%) in FL-13.

In the Plains, Bruce Braley had a brutal three way battle against Dickinson and Gluba but Dave Loebsack had no opponent. Nancy Boyda wa unopposed. Nick Lampson and Ciro Rodriguez were OK (although this was Ciro's second go around in the cycle).

Out west, winner Harry Mitchell was unopposed butGabrielle Giffords won 54% in a multi-candidate fieldand Jerry McNerney had to upset the establishment fave, Steve Flson, befoe taking down Richard Pombo in the general. Ed Perlmutter also triumphed against two other strong candidates particularly Peggy Lamm in CO.

Western close losers Gary Trauner, Darcy Burner and Angie Pacccione were unopposed and Tessa Hafen won easily in NV with 58% in a multi-candidate field.

In short, the winners in pickup races were more likely to face a challenge, more likely to face a serious challenge and were forced to pull upsets against better funded opponents in a number of races. You would be hard pessed to make an argument for clearing the field based on these results.

Nasty blood fueds like Cegelis vs. Duckworth however were damaging and they should be avoided.

In the South, John Yarmuth (KY-3)

House '08: Help find a challenger!

Myles — Fri, 16 Feb 2007 00:28:56 GMT

Recent news that Linda Stender, Eric Massa, Dan Maffei and Larry Kissell, to name a few, are all considering rematches inspired me to create a diary to help find challengers to vulnerable Republicans. Who better to suggest candidates than people who live in or no these districts on an intimate level.

Finding the next Harry Mitchell could turn a Safe GOP seat into a pickup.

Here's my list of the top fifty GOP house seats that could be in danger in 2008.
Rogers, Mike, Alabama, 3rd
Renzi, Rick, Arizona, 1st
Bilbray, Brian P., California, 50th
Doolittle, John, California, 4th
Musgrave, Marilyn, Colorado, 4th
Shays, Christopher, Connecticut, 4th
Castle, Michael N*., Delaware, At Large
Keller, Ric, Florida 8th
Young, C.W. Bill*, Florida, 10th
Buchanan, Vern, Florida, 13th
Latham, Tom *, Iowa, 4th
Roskam, Peter J., Illinois, 6th
Kirk, Mark., Illinois, 10th
Souder, Mark E., Indiana, 3rd
Walberg, Timothy, Michigan, 7th
Rogers, Mike, Michigan, 8th
Knollenberg, Joseph, Michigan, 9th
McCotter, Thaddeus, Michigan, 11th
Bachmann, Michele, Minnesota, 6th
Ramstad, Jim *, Minnesota, 3rd
Rehberg, Dennis, Montana, At Large
Fortenberry, Jeff, Nebraska, 1st
Terry, Lee, Nebraska, 2nd
Ferguson, Michael, New Jersey, 7th
Garrett, Scott, New Jersey, 5th
LoBiondo, Frank, New Jersey, 2nd
Heller, Dean, Nevada, 2nd
Porter, Jon, Nevada, 3rd
Kuhl Jr., John R. "Randy", New York, 29th
Wilson, Heather, New Mexico, 1st
King, Pete, New York, 3rd
Fossella, Vito, New York, 13th
Reynolds, Thomas M., New York, 26th
Walsh, Jim, New York, 25th
Hayes, Robin, North Carolina, 8th
Chabot, Steve, Ohio, 1st
Schmidt, Jean, Ohio, 2nd
Tiberi, Pat, Ohio, 12th
Pryce, Deborah, Ohio, 15th
Regula, Ralph *, Ohio, 16th
English, Phil, Pennsylvania, 3rd
Gerlach, Jim, Pennsylvania, 6th
Dent, Charles W., Pennsylvania, 15th
Murphy, Tim, Pennsylvania, 18th
Paul, Ron, Texas, 14th
Drake, Thelma D., Virginia, 2nd
Wolf, Frank, Virginia, 10th
Davis, Tom, Virginia, 11th
Reichert, David G., Washington, 8th
Ryan, Paul*, Wisconsin, 1st
Capito, Shelley Moore, West Virginia, 2nd
Cubin, Barbara, Wyoming, At Large

* This race is only competitive if the incumbent retires or runs for another office.

2006 left us with few "low hanging fruit" targets.

Seats like PA-06, NV-03, OH-15, NY-25, NC-08 WA-08 and NM-01 need top challenges, as do lower tier races like IL-10 and PA-15. Let's find the next batch of Democratic Congresspeople.

Here's some names to start with: Steve Udall in AZ-01, Andy Dinniman in PA-06 and Joe Turnham in AL-2

Swing State Project - close races

Do Primaries Help or Hurt in the General? : A Look at 51 House races from 2006

House '08: Help find a challenger!