• CT-Sen: Rumors are popping up that ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, still the GOP Senate primary's frontrunner by most people's estimation but financially outgunned on a variety of different fronts, may switch to the now-open gubernatorial race. Simmons, however, says his plans are "unchanged," and touts his foreign policy background, saying that's much more useful in the Senate. Meanwhile, an interesting CQ piece looks at pro wrestling svengali Linda McMahon's role in the race, and wonders whether her vast fortunes will really help her that much in a state where a convention attended by party insiders (where Simmons would be favored) is decisive in shaping the field. (Although even if she doesn't win the convention outright or meet the 15% threshold for getting on the ballot, she can still get on the ballot by collecting enough signatures -- certainly an expensive process, but one she could pay for with whatever change she finds under her couch cushions.)
• FL-Sen: Here's about as close as you can get to a Jeb Bush endorsement without his lips actually moving. Bush's sons, Jeb Bush Jr. and George P. Bush, are headlining a Marco Rubio fundraiser in mid-December.
• CT-Gov: Ned Lamont is already staffing up, and a familiar face is going to be one of his key advisors: Howard Wolfson. Wolfson was adviser to Lamont in 2006, but is better known for his lead role in Hillary Clinton's campaign last year, as well as Michael Bloomberg's campaign this year.
• MN-Gov: Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak ran into a snafu with his campaign still on the launching pad, as the state's campaign finance board ruled that he spent money on his campaign before he'd filed the campaign paperwork. Rybak paid for a message-testing poll, although it didn't directly ask questions about the governor's race. If you want to see the whole polling memo (not something you usually get to see with internal polls), check it out.
• WI-Gov: Politics abhors a vacuum, and Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett is acting quickly to fill the vacuum that has formed on the Democratic side of the gubernatorial race. He says he'll make a decision "one way or the other" by the week's end.
• CO-04: Although state Rep. Cory Gardner is clearly the NRCC's favorite in the Republican field, that didn't deter former Ft. Collins city councilor Diggs Brown, who will be announcing his candidacy on Saturday. He had been considered a likely candidate all year, but was on a year-long Army deployment and unable to announce until now. Univ. of Colorado Regent Tom Lucero rounds out the trio of GOPers seeking to take on first-term Dem Rep. Betsy Markey.
• FL-13: James Golden, an African-American minister, attorney and former Bradenton city councilor, launched his campaign last week against Rep. Vern Buchanan. Golden will face an uphill fight against the self-funding Buchanan -- unless Buchanan, facing ongoing scrutiny over mysterious campaign finance machinations, goes down in a legal implosion.
• ID-01: This may be a surprise, or may not -- state House majority leader Ken Roberts withdrew from the GOP primary race to take on freshman Dem Rep. Walt Minnick. Roberts cited health reasons. Roberts initially would have seemed to have a leg up based on name recognition, but veteran and former McCain campaign official Vaughn Ward seemed to be capturing most of the buzz, including a good fundraising start and NRCC touting.
• IN-03: Democrats have taken notice in the last few cycles of Rep. Mark Souder's decidedly lackadaisical approach to re-election in this dark-red district, but now someone from the teabaggy right is taking notice too, and launching a primary campaign. Republican Attorney Phil Troyer (a former staffer to Dick Lugar and Dan Coats) announced his campaign today. (This seems less like an ideological challenge, as Souder is down-the-line conservative, as just opportunistic, taking advantage of his sloth.) Tom Hayhurst, who narrowly lost in 2006, is on track to the Democratic nod again.
• MN-03: Add a second Democratic challenger to the list in the 3rd: Minnesota PTA president, and executive director of the Minnesota Optometrists Association, Jim Meffert filed to run. He joins psychiatrist Maureen Hackett; they may still both be joined by state Sen. Teri Bonoff, although Meffert says that Bonoff has hinted to him that she's likely to take a pass.
• NJ-03: Best wishes to state Sen. Diane Allen, who is entering treatment for an aggressive form of cancer. The moderate Allen, who lost the 2002 Senate primary and was short-listed for Lt. Governor this year, had been considered a possible candidate against Rep. John Adler in the 3rd.
• NV-02: We've got another Democrat lined up to go against Rep. Dean Heller in the 2nd (after Cindy Trigg dropped out several months ago), and he has a strong resume. Jack Schofield is a member of the state's Board of Regents, and is a former state Senator. Unfortunately, he may not be running the most vigorous campaign in the world, as he was a state Senator in the 1970s, and is a World War II veteran (do the math).
• NY-23: The Washington Post has a nice, human-level retrospective on Dede Scozzafava's collapse in the special election and the difference in how the GOP and the Dems treated her, leading to her Bill Owens endorsement. Meanwhile, things continue to play out, as Scozzafava either stepped down from or was stripped of her leadership role in the Assembly Republicans, depending on who you believe. Start counting down to her party switch (not that the Assembly Dems need the help, what with their 109-41 margin).
• OH-02: What's with all these former Apprentice contestants thinking that's somehow a stepping stone to political office? Surya Yalimanchili is now planning to run as an independent in the 2nd, currently held by GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt. He's sounding centrist notes so far rather than sounding teabaggy, though, so he may not help the Dems too much by siphoning off far-right Republican votes.
• PA-07: One more Democrat is getting into the open seat field in the 7th, although it's unclear whether she'll get much traction against state Rep. Bryan Lentz. Environmental lawyer Gail Conner, an Obama convention delegate last year, threw her hat into the ring.
• PA-11: Third time's the charm? It looks like Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta will give crusty Dem incumbent Paul Kanjorski another challenge next year. Barletta fell just a few points shy of knocking off Kanjorski last year, prompting Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O'Brien to enter the Democratic primary for the seat. With pressure from both sides, one has to wonder if Kanjo will hit the eject button. (J)
• PA-17: Here's an example of how voting against health care reform does Blue Dogs a fat lot of good: Rep. Tim Holden got about two days of peace before a Republican state Senator started making noises about a campaign against him anyway. Holden has had little in the way of opposition recently, but now he may face David Argall, who represents Holden's coal-country turf of Schuylkill County. Relatedly, over in Ohio's 16th, a Cleveland Plain Dealer profile of fellow anti-HCR vote John Boccieri shows how he managed to win over exactly no Republicans while ticking off his base.
• PA-19: With Republican Rep. Todd Platts looking to bail on the House and head over to the GAO, candidates are already scoping out the potential special election. Although it's a dark-red district (R+12), one good-sounding Dem is gearing up: Ryan Sanders, real estate developer, president of the Red Lion Area Business Association, and most usefully, an organizer for the Obama campaign in York County.
• UT-02: More fallout from the health care reform vote: Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson (one of the 'no' votes) may, as a result, be facing a primary challenge from the left from state Sen. Scott McCoy (Utah's only gay state Senator and one of its few liberals). The Salt Lake City-based district is still strongly Republican, although it hasn't presented Matheson with much trouble lately.
• MI-St. Sen.: Here's an interesting look at the fight by Dems to reclaim the state Senate in Michigan (currently held 22-16 by the GOP, but where the majority of seats are open next year), which would give them the redistricting trifecta. Even if they don't pick it up (or do while losing the gubernatorial race), the state Supreme Court breaks any logjam, making next year's Supreme Court elections paramount too. The article also contains a map of the Dems' preferred redistricting plan, to turf out Rep. Vern Ehlers by creating a Dem-leaning 3rd District linking Grand Rapids and Muskegon.
• NH-St. Sen.: A special election will be happening in New Hampshire, giving the Dems the chance to add to their narrow lead in the state Senate there (they currently have a 14-10 edge). Republican state Sen. Ted Gatsas is poised to resign after having been elected Manchester mayor. Democratic state Rep. Jeff Goley is set to get into the race, though several other state House Dems are looking at it too.
• Mayors: The Seattle mayor's race has finally come to an end, with as late-breaking ballots are going more toward former local Sierra Club leader Mike McGinn. Joe Mallahan conceded after McGinn's lead pushed up to nearly 5,000, for a 51-49 edge.
• Ads: In the wake of this weekend's health care vote, the DNC is planning to target 32 House Republicans in Obama districts who voted 'no.' They aren't planning on using paid media yet, but will use the OFA campaign e-mail lists to organize in those districts. Meanwhile, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee is promising ads against 10 'no' votes, saying it's "payback" time: Barrow, Shuler, Herseth Sandlin, Murphy, Altmire, Nye, Kissell, Adler, Kosmas, and Ross.
• Demographics: If you're like me, you may spend a lot of time wondering how Scandinavian-Americans got so liberal and Dutch-Americans got so conservative. Dreaminonempty takes a look at ancestry and voting patterns in a very interesting diary at Open Left.
• MA-Sen: Here's another academic name popping up in connect with Ted Kennedy's vacant senate seat. The Center for American Progress Action Fund thinks that Deval Patrick should appoint Harvard prof and Boston-based surgeon Atul Gawande to the post. Gawande is best-known these days for his seminal article this summer in the New Yorker about health-care costs, but he also was a healthcare advisor to Bill Clinton in the early 90s. (D)
Also in the Bay State, Rep. Mike Capuano got a potentially helpful endorsement, from fellow Rep. Barney Frank. Frank's imprimatur may help Capuano prove his liberal bona fides and win over some voters in the Boston suburbs who may not be familiar with him.
• NH-Sen: Despite Kelly Ayotte's reputed field-clearing abilities, yet another Republican is adding his name to the list of possible candidates in the New Hampshire Senate race. Real estate investor William Binnie is quite literally from the country club wing of the GOP -- he's owner and president of the Wentworth-by-the-Sea Country Club and owner/driver of an auto racing team. Another suggestion he may be running to the left of Ayotte (although her intentionally amorphous political persona gives no clue about her ideology); Binnie is tight with moderate GOP ex-Rep. Andrew Zeliff, and has given money to Democratic candidates in the past.
• TX-Sen: Rumors out of Texas have Kay Bailey Hutchison resigning her seat at year's end (on Dec. 31 or Jan. 1) in order to pursue her gubernatorial bid against Rick Perry. Under Texas law, this would lead to a short-term appointment, and then a special election on May 8.
• IA-Gov: Incumbent Dem Chet Culver continues to sport rather good favorables, clocking in at 50/37, but his re-elect numbers may give him some pause (28% say "definitely vote for," 27% say "consider an alternative," and 21% say "definitely vote for alternative"). Republican ex-Gov. Terry Branstad, who's been receptive to the idea of a bid for a return to office, is still remembered fondly by Iowans, with favorables of 59/22. Sen. Chuck Grassley is the state's best-liked figure, though, with 64% favorables and a 45% "definitely vote for." (H/t Steve Benen.)
• NJ-Gov (pdf): Neighborhood Research is a Republican internal pollster (they worked with primary loser Steve Lonegan), but they were the first pollster to find Jon Corzine moving back within the margin of error. They're back with a new poll, showing Corzine still within striking distance, trailing Chris Christie 37-33 (although that's down from their August finding of 37-35) with Chris Daggett at 6. Meanwhile, Chris Daggett has joined a voter suit challenging ballot ordering in New Jersey, which favors the two major-party candidates.
• PA-Gov: Montgomery County Commissioner and ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel says he's moving ahead with plans to run for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. No formal announcement date is set, but the progressive from the Philly suburbs is starting to staff up, and is bolstered by an internal poll he commissioned through Lake Research, showing him leading the nebulous field at 15%, with Allegheny County Exec Dan Onorato and state Auditor Jack Wagner both at 12, Scranton mayor Chris Doherty at 6, and Philly businessman Tom Knox at 5.
• NY-23: With the 23rd now officially vacant, Dem candidate Bill Owens is the first to put up a TV spot. He stresses his military roots and efforts to generated jobs via the redevelopment of the old Plattsburgh AFB.
• TN-01: Get ready for Roe vs. Davis III in the 1st. Ex-Rep. David Davis, who defeated current Rep. Phil Roe in the 2006 GOP primary and then lost the 2008 GOP primary to him (in this R+21 district), has been publicly blasting Roe's record.
• NY-Lt. Gov: On Friday, Sept. 11th, New York's highest court, the Court of Appeals, heard oral arguments regarding David Paterson's appointment of Richard Ravitch as Lt. Governor. According to reports, Paterson's camp seemed to have gotten its most favorable treatment to date. Lawyers on both sides, says the NYT, expect a decision within two weeks, which would mean the end of this week or the beginning of next. One possibility is that the court could rule that Republican leader Dean Skelos simply didn't have standing to sue, which would leave the Ravitch appointment intact. (D)
• NYC-Mayor: Marist finds that Democratic city Comptroller William Thompson, despite a convincing primary win, still trails Independent/Republican incumbent Mike Bloomberg in the general, 50-39 among RVs and 52-43 among LVs. It's still some improvement for Thompson, who trailed 48-35 among RVs in July.
• Ads: Conservative PAC the Family Research Council has published its own target list for the 2010 cycle: Michael Bennet and Chris Dodd, plus the Missouri and Ohio open seats, in the Senate, and John Boccieri, Steve Driehaus, Parker Griffith, Mary Jo Kilroy, Ann Kirkpatrick, Betsy Markey, Walt Minnick, John Murtha, Glenn Nye, Tom Perriello, and Dina Titus in the House.
Walt Minnick, the conservative Blue Dog Congressman from Idaho's 1st district, is in deep doo-doo with voters back home.
Even conservative Republicans (who, let's be honest, make up this district's entire electorate) who applaud Minnick for standing up to vote no on Nancy Pelosi's agenda, will NOT vote for him next year.
The good news is that Walt Minnick might as well be a Republican anyway. He votes so often with the Republican leadership that if he changed parties today it would not change the voting at all.
If I was Minnick, I'd stop campaigning, stop fundraising, and compile a strong progressive voting record. It would be only so fair as the citizens of Idaho will probably not get another progressive vote in Congress for another fifty years.
So I can say this right now: based on these projections, Walt Minnick will NOT return to the House in 2011. So the DCCC better give that money to more worthy members.
• AR-Sen: There seems to be a competition among Arkansas Republican Senate candidates to see who can make the biggest ass of himself. It was businessman Curtis Coleman's turn this time; yesterday, in reference to southeast Arkansas (where most of the state's African-American population is), he said you "might as well get a visa and shots" before heading down there. Not content to stop digging his own hole, today he explained that what he meant was "accentuate or maybe even celebrate the enormous diversity we have in Arkansas.... I love Southeast Arkansas and meant it only as a metaphor." Oh, well, if it's only a metaphor, I guess that makes it OK.
• DE-Sen: After Rep. Mike Castle made an inartful comment a few days ago ("They've asked me to run for Senate as a Republican. I don't know if I'm going to do that."), he went ahead and clarified that he isn't intending to switch parties.
• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio picked up a potentially useful endorsement in the GOP Senate primary: Rep. Jeff Miller, who represents FL-01 in the dark-red Panhandle, an area of the state where Rubio is little known so far but where his hard-right conservatism is likely to play well. Miller endorsed Charlie Crist in the 2006 governor's primary.
• MO-Sen: Here's another minor tea leaf that former Treasurer Sarah Steelman won't be getting into the Senate primary: prominent Missouri political operative Gregg Keller, who was reportedly set to work for Steelman, instead went to Connecticut to manage Tom Foley's CT-Sen campaign.
• NC-Sen: Here's some good news out of North Carolina: former state Senator and Iraq vet Cal Cunningham seems to be moving to get into the Senate race for the Dems. Cunningham described his efforts to put together a campaign in a post to his Facebook supporters group.
• NH-Sen: With establishment figures dithering on whether to get into the GOP Senate primary, businessman Fred Tausch is jumping into the void, launching a TV spot promoting his fiscal-discipline advocacy group, STEWARD of Prosperity. He says he's interested in the Senate race, although not ready to publicly declare.
• VT-Sen: It wasn't a done deal that 69-year-old Pat Leahy would be back for another term in the Senate, but he confirmed yesterday he'll be back for a seventh term.
• AZ-Gov: Former Democratic state party chair and 2006 Senate candidate Jim Pederson said today that he won't run for Arizona governor, despite earlier statements of his interest. This leaves AG Terry Goddard (who has said he "intends" to run) with a pretty clear shot at the Dem nomination; it remains unclear if Republican Gov. Jan Brewer, armpit-deep in a frustrating fight with her GOP-held legislature, will run for a full term.
• CA-Gov: Rep. Loretta Sanchez announced she won't be running for Governor but will seek another term in the House; she naturally became a topic of conversation with LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa's exit from the race, leaving the Dem field without a SoCal, Hispanic, or female candidate. On the GOP side, Rep. John Campbell's defection from the Steve Poizner camp to the Meg Whitman camp was just the tip of the iceberg: three state legislators and a county chair just flipped.
• SC-Gov: State Rep. Nikki Haley has been the subject of breathless conservative hype over the past few months as the anti-spending candidate to replace Mark Sanford (and also Sanford's preferred choice for the job, if you read the tea leaves). See this pre-Sanford-implosion Politico piece from earlier this week to see what I mean. But with revelations that Sanford hasn't been able to keep it in his pants or on this continent (a snap SUSA poll finds 60% of state residents think he should resign, with only 34% saying stay in office), Haley has moved to distance herself from Sanford, scrubbing all traces of him from her website where he was once prominently featured. (J)
• UT-Gov: Soon-to-be Gov. Gary Herbert looks like he won't have a free ride at the nominating convention in the 2010 special election. Univ. of Utah professor Kirk Jowers, who reportedly had been offered the role as Herbert's Lt. Gov., is the subject of a draft movement and may challenge Herbert for the top job instead -- with Josh Romney (son of Mitt) as his LG. Rep. Jason Chaffetz appears to be in their corner.
• ID-01: Idaho pollster Greg Smith tested the approvals of local politicians, and Idahoans just like their politicians, gosh darn it, even that Demmycrat Walt Minnick (whose approval is 47/20, good news heading into a potentially very tough re-election). Governor Butch Otter has the most troublesome numbers, and even he's at 47/35.
• IL-07: Here's a potential open seat, although at D+35, not one we're going to have to sweat very hard. Rep. Danny Davis, who had been vaguely associated with the IL-Sen primary, now looks to be taking concrete steps toward running for President of the Cook County Board, forming an exploratory committee. Davis was runner-up in that race three years ago. This time, he says he has a poll giving him a 7-point lead over county commissioner Forrest Claypool, who was presumptive frontrunner but pulled out of the race last week. With over 5 million constituents, it seems like a pretty good gig.
• NY-23: New York county Democratic leaders set an initial timeline for finding a nominee for the upcoming special election to replace Rep. John McHugh. July 17 is the deadline for declaring interest.
• PA-03: With no GOPer left to challenge freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, Elaine Surma formed an exploratory committee to consider a bid. With no elective track record, she's a senior agent with the state Attorney General's office.
• PA-15: Bethlehem mayor John Callahan's seeming change of heart about running against Rep. Charlie Dent comes after having been called by Joe Biden last week with promises of White House support in the race.
• VA-02, VA-05: Roll Call looks at the prospects for the Virginia freshmen. Ex-Rep. Virgil Goode is apparently close to making a decision on whether to try to wrest the 5th back from Rep. Tom Perriello, with state Del. Rob Bell or state Sen. Rob Hurt as backup plans. In the 2nd, none of the local elected GOP officials seem to be moving toward the race, and the GOP field is more a hodge-podge of various businessmen/veterans: Chuck Smith, Ed Maulbeck, Ben Loyola, and possibly Scott Rigell.
• MO-Sen: In an e-mail to local TV affiliate KY3, former Treasurer Sarah Steelman seems to be walking back her comments to the Hill yesterday, not wanting to appear to shut the door on a GOP primary bid against Rep. Roy Blunt. She says she's still "very seriously considering" it.
• PA-Sen: Here's an interesting development: a state legislator in Pennsylvania has introduced a bill to switch Pennyslvania from closed to open primaries. This seems like a nakedly pro-Specter bill: it would have helped him survive his GOP primary against Pat Toomey, and now it would have the opposite effect, helping him survive a Democratic primary against Joe Sestak by opening the door to independents and moderate Republicans.
• AK-AL: Unless the indictment fairy has a present for him soon, Rep. Don Young looks to have a much easier go of it in 2010 than last cycle. Not only is his Dem challenger ex-state House minority leader Ethan Berkowitz likely to run for governor instead, but now it sounds like his primary opponents, Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell and ex-state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux, aren't going to run again either. Unlike last time, Parnell would need to give up his LG job to run, and he may instead be running for Governor if Sarah Palin declines to run again. Businessman Andrew Halcro, who ran for Governor as an independent in 2006, also sounds likely to run for Governor rather than challenge Young. State Senator Hollis French, who sounded like a likely Governor candidate for the Dems until Berkowitz showed up, may be the Dems' best bet.
• AL-07: The field to replace Artur Davis got bigger, as Jefferson Co. Councilor Shelia Smoot officially launched her campaign. She joins lawyer Terri Sewell, state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr., and former Selma mayor James Perkins in the primary (which is the only real race in this D+18 district).
• CA-11: Contra Costa County Sheriff Warren Rupf turned down the chance to run as a Republican in the upcoming CA-10 special election, but that seemed to ignite his interest, as now he's considering running in 2010 in next-door CA-11 against sophomore Rep. Jerry McNerney, at R+1 a more plausible race than the D+11 CA-10.
• FL-08: Republican state Representative Steve Precourt is considering making the race against Rep. Alan Grayson in this R+2 Orlando-area seat. His strongest words seemed to be reserved for likely primary opponent Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty, who Precourt doesn't see as a "fresh face" or viable, although Precourt said he'd stand down if former state Sen. Daniel Webster got in.
• ID-01: The Republican field in ID-01 is filling up, as state House majority leader Ken Roberts announced he's in. He'll have to get past veteran and McCain ally Vaughn Ward before facing off against Rep. Walt Minnick, though. Ex-Rep. Bill Sali occasionally makes threatening noises about a rematch, but he hasn't said anything definite.
• NH-02: Former state Rep. Bob Giuda (not to be confused with Frank Guinta, running in NH-01) is the first GOPer to launch an exploratory committee in the race to fill Rep. Paul Hodes' open seat. He may still be joined by the 2008 candidate, Jennifer Horn, and, more remotely, a return by ex-Rep. Charlie Bass.
• NY-23: Douglas Hoffman, the head of a local accounting firm, has thrown his hat into the GOP nomination contest for the special election to replace Rep. John McHugh. Republicans also announced their schedule for picking a nominee, involving four regional meetings around the districts where candidates would speak to the Republican county committee members over a two- to four-week period once there's an official vacancy.
• PA-03: Freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, representing the swingy R+3 district based in Erie (won by John McCain by 62 votes), has managed to secure a hot ticket in view of its self-imposed membership cap: she joined the Blue Dog Coalition.
• Redistricting: A petition drive is underway in Florida to get an initiative on the ballot for 2010 that, while not creating an independent redistricting campaign, would at least place some non-partisan limitations on the creation of House and legislative districts. Most of the money behind the petition drive is coming from Democrats, but two prominent Democrats aren't on board with the drive: Reps. Alcee Hastings and Corrine Brown, both of whom stand to inherit more difficult districts if they're made less convoluted.
• OH-Sen: Rob Portman's great week continues: he just found himself admitting in an interview that Republicans have no position on health care, and that he reached this conclusion only by talking to GOP Senate leadership about that. However, he says, "There's a task force, and I applaud them for that."
• FL-Gov: Lakeland-area State Senator Paula Dockery, whose name has occasionally been bandied about for the GOP nomination for the open seat in FL-12, may be setting her sights higher: all the way to Governor. This would complicate things for the state party leadership, which got Ag Commissioner Charles Bronson to clear the path for AG Bill McCollum... but might secretly relieve some others in the Florida GOP, worried that McCollum has that warmed-over two-time-loser aroma. (I wonder, though, if she might really be angling for the still-vacant Lt. Gov. slot, as current Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp is heading over to the AG's race, and Bronson said 'no thanks' to the idea. The GOP might need her there to avoid having an all-white-guy slate, what with state Senate President Jeff Atwater running for CFO and Howdy Doody Rep. Adam Putnam running for Ag Comm.)
• AZ-Gov: Another state legislator contemplating out loud about a Governor's race is state Rep. David Bradley, who may resign this summer in order to explore the race. He has two disadvantages, though: his base is not Phoenix but the much-smaller Tucson, and he isn't known statewide like other likely Dem candidates AG Terry Goddard and developer/former state party boss/2006 Senate candidate Jim Pederson.
• NY-Gov: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand made some cryptic comments yesterday that have everyone scratching their heads: she believes there won't be a Democratic primary for the 2010 Governor's race. What she didn't say is who she thinks will stand down, David Paterson or Andrew Cuomo?
• MD-01: The NRCC is up with another ad blitz, this time with freshman Rep. Frank Kratovil the prime target. The TV ad hits Kratovil for his 'no' vote against an investigation into Nancy Pelosi over whether she or the CIA is lying (not an issue I could ever see the public comprehending, let alone getting revved up about, but maybe that's just me). The issue also merits radio spots in 6 more districts (those of Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Suzanne Kosmas, Glenn Nye, Tom Perriello, Vic Snyder, and Harry Teague), and robocalls in 10 more (John Boccieri, Bobby Bright, John Hall, Steny Hoyer, Steve Kagen, Ann Kirkpatrick, Larry Kissell, Harry Mitchell, Walt Minnick, and Mark Schauer).
• CA-10: Running Some Guy is better than running No Guy, and the GOP has at least found Some Guy to run in the yet-to-be-scheduled special election to replace Ellen Tauscher: attorney David Harmer. Harmer once ran for Congress in UT-02 in 1996, and his father was California Lt. Gov under Ronald Reagan.
• NY-AG: The New York Times profiles half a dozen prominent Democrats who are jockeying to take over the Attorney General's job if Andrew Cuomo follows through on the Governor's race. Nassau County Exec Tom Suozzi is the best known, but two members of Paterson's cabinet -- insurance superintendent Eric Dinallo and criminal justice official Denise O'Donnell -- are also looking. The article also cites Assemblyman Michael Gianaris, Assemblyman Richard Brodsky, and state Senator Eric Schneiderman.
• TX-House: Democrats in the state House in Texas used parliamentary procedures to run out the clock on a Republican voter suppression bill. The voter ID bill would have disenfranchised thousands. The bill was so important to Republicans that they wouldn't let any other bills jump ahead of it in the queue, though, creating a standoff that torpedoed hundreds of other pieces of legislation (including the override of Gov. Rick Perry's decision to turn down $555 million in federal stimulus funds).
The Idaho GOP has lost its top choice to run against frosh Democratic Rep. Walt Minnick. Idaho state Treasurer Ron Crane has decided not to run for Congress despite sounding like a candidate earlier in the week. From the Idaho Press-Tribune:
Nampa resident and Idaho Treasurer Ron Crane has decided against running for Walt Minnick's 1st District U.S. Congressional seat in 2010.
Crane, a Republican, told the Idaho Press-Tribune Friday he had made the decision not to run.
"I seriously explored it," Crane said. "I have come to the conclusion not to run."
Crane spent the last week hobnobbing with the GOP braintrust in DC, and now I have to wonder if he wasn't sufficiently impressed by the sorry state of affairs in the Boehner caucus. So make that one bullet dodged for Walt Minnick... but there are undoubtedly plenty more to come.
• PA-Sen: Well, something finally went right for Arlen Specter. After Specter got condemned to the basement on all his committees on Tuesday night, Majority whip Dick Durbin doled out a little charity this morning by giving up his own chair (Judiciary Subcommittee on Crime and Drugs) and handing it over to Specter (apparently without Pat Leahy's say-so). I'm wondering what Specter had to do behind the scenes to smooth things over; if the rumors flying that Specter is poised to re-flip-flop back to supporting EFCA are true, that's probably the answer.
• NY-Sen-B: Rep. Carolyn McCarthy is still making noises about a primary challenge to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, but with her frequent caveats about stepping aside if someone younger takes on the challenge, it seems like she's doing it more to yank Gillibrand's chain on gun control issues. Gillibrand has been a reliable vote in favor of gun controls since entering the Senate, going so far as to co-sponsor the current bill to close the gun-show loophole. McCarthy confesses to being "very happy about it. I just want her to stay there."
• NH-Sen: Judd Gregg tells CQ that wherever he goes, he's bombarded by Republicans begging him to run for another term in the Senate. He says he'll listen to their entreaties, but he's "comfortable with where" he is.
• AK-Gov: Governors in general are having a rough go of it these days, and now even the once-mighty Sarah Palin is suffering, falling to a mundane 54/41 favorable rating according to Hays Research. Senator Lisa Murkowski, by comparison, is still at 76/18.
• OK-Gov: Ex-Rep. J.C. Watts is still publicly undecided about the governor's race, and kicking the can down the road on a formal decision. Reading between the lines of his statement, it sounds like he's having some trouble fundraising, saying "You don't take on something like this unless you know you will have the resources to do it."
• CO-04: The GOP got the candidate it wanted, to go up against freshman Rep. Betsy Markey in this now R+6 district. State House minority whip Cory Gardner, who represents the vast emptiness of eastern Colorado, announced that he'll be running. Univ. of Colorado regent Tom Lucero is already in the hunt for the GOP nod.
• MN-06: One day after former Independence Party Lt. Gov. candidate Maureen Reed said she'll be a Dem candidate in 2010, the 2008 candidate, Elwyn Tinklenberg, confirmed he'll be running again, against one-woman gaffe machine Michele Bachmann.
• CA-47: GOP Assemblyman Van Tran made it official, setting up his exploratory committee for an uphill bid against Rep. Loretta Sanchez in this D+4 Latino-majority district in the heart of the O.C. (Discussion underway in Gus Ayer's diary.)
• ID-01: Idaho state Treasurer Don Crane spent the last week glad-handing GOP leaders and fundraisers in Washington, DC, fueling speculation that he's ready to challenge frosh Democratic Rep. Walt Minnick next year. Would his candidacy dampen the spirits of ex-Rep. Bill "Brain Fade" Sali, who is currently mulling a rematch? (J)
• GA-09: When you have an R+28 district, the only question about an open seat is what variety of wingnut you're going to get next. Former state Senator Bill Stephens (who lost the SoS primary to Karen Handel in 2006) announced he'll run to succeed Rep. Nathan Deal, retiring to run for governor. Former state Transportation Board chair Mike Evans is already seek the GOP nom.
• IL-11: The GOP has lined up Air Force Captain Adam Kinzinger to run against freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson in the Chicago suburbs. His exploratory committee is open, but he's currently serving in Iraq and won't be able to make a formal announcement until summer.
• MI-11: We've got somebody willing to step up against Bad Thad McCotter in this Dem-trending seat in the economically hard-hit Detroit suburbs: fundraising consultant Natalie Mosher. The DCCC sounds like it's going to keep looking for someone else, but if that fails, bear in mind that McCotter barely won in 2008 against a different Dem nobody.
• GA-12: When you're running for office, it's important to sell yourself... but not oversell yourself. Surgeon and Iraq vet Wayne Mosely, who's running against Rep. John Barrow in the D+1 rural Georgia district, recently tweeted that the NRCC rated his race as one of the top 3 in the nation! Uh, no, there's no ranking system, responded the NRCC, although they did concede that they were "very excited" about Mosely's candidacy.
• FL-Sen: It's poorly sourced, but conventional wisdom seems to be reaching some sort of critical mass on the idea that Gov. Charlie Crist will announce within the next week whether or not he will run for the open senate seat in Florida. Some say he is a "near lock" to switch over to the senate race.
• IL-Sen: Chris Kennedy, son of Robert F. Kennedy, is now publicly pondering entering the Illinois senate race. Kennedy has never held elective office; he's a developer who runs Chicago's Merchandise Mart. On the other hand, he's been a Chicago fixture most of his life, and has that certain last name. One source says there's an "85% chance" he'll do it.
• CA-Sen: In case there was any doubt, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer has officially announced her plans to seek re-election. (J)
• GA-Gov: State senator Eric Johnson has, with Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle dropping out of the gubernatorial race, switched from running for lieutenant governor to governor. He joins SoS Karen Handel, Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, and state rep. Austin Scott in the hunt for the GOP nomination.
• AL-Gov: Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb, Alabama's only Democratic appellate judge, is interested in joining the already-crowded field seeking the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. She would have to resign her position (in which case GOP governor Bob Riley would appoint a new chief justice) in order to campaign for governor, though.
• NH-01: Manchester mayor Frank Guinta is the likely candidate to take on Carol Shea-Porter, and he has produced an internal poll showing him trailing Shea-Porter 43-34. Shea-Porter is well-below the danger mark of 50, but on the other hand, Guinta isn't an unknown; he already represents nearly 20% of the district.
• ID-01: Are you there, God? It's me, Brain Fade. Ex-Rep. Bill Sali (R) sounds like he's angling to make a comeback against Democrat Walt Minnick next year. In an email to supporters, Sali says that he's "increasingly troubled by the direction our country is headed" and is asking his supporters to pray for him as he considers his political future. (J)
• SD-AL: South Dakota's Republican Secretary of State, Chris Nelson, has made known his interest in running for South Dakota's at-large House seat. Nelson, who's term-limited out, didn't seem to make this contingent on whether or not Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin ran for higher office, like the open governor's seat (which has been rumored, but doesn't seem to be taking shape).
• CA-47: The GOP is looking to Vietnamese-American assemblyman Van Tran as a candidate against Rep. Loretta Sanchez in this D+4 Orange County district. This very low-turnout district is about 15% Asian and 70% Hispanic.
• CA-26: Businessman Russ Warner, who ran unsuccessfully against GOP Rep. David Dreier in 2008 (and attempted to do the same in 2006, but ran into a snag in the form of a primary loss), says that he plans to run for a third time next year in this Dem-trending CD. (J)
• DCCC: Everybody's favorite new villainess, Michele Bachmann, has been so prolific with the oddball fringe-right comments lately that she's actually getting her own page at the DCCC's website. Imagine that: from backbencher to public enemy #1 in less than half a year!
• NY-20 (pdf): This morning's update from the BoE has Scott Murphy's lead increasing a bit, up to 56 votes. Brace yourself for later today, though, when Saratoga County (Jim Tedisco's base) is scheduled to report absentees for the first time.
• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter picked up an important backer in the 2010 primary: NRSC chair John Cornyn (who'd, of course, like to limit the number of seats lost on his watch). "As I survey the political landscape of the upcoming 2010 elections, it's clear we need more candidates that fit their states," said Cornyn. Although Cornyn doesn't mention his name, he obviously has in mind a guy who doesn't fit his state: Pat Toomey, who just happened to officially announce his long-rumored Senate bid yesterday.
• MN-Sen: No surprise here; Norm Coleman, having lost the election yesterday according to a three-judge panel, has filed an appeal with the Minnesota Supreme Court. Election law blogger Rick Hasen looks at yesterday's opinion and the difficulty Coleman will face in getting it reversed.
• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio reported raising $250,000 in the last month since opening his exploratory committee, a solid start. Meanwhile, Kendrick Meek continued to dominate the labor endorsement front, picking up the nod from the International Union of Painters and Allied Trades, AFL-CIO.
• IL-10: State senator Susan Garrett says she'll decide within the month whether or not to challenge Mark Kirk (sounding like she's trying to wait as long as possible to see if Kirk jumps into the senate race and leaves an open seat). Kirk has turned back a number of serious challenges in the 3rd-most Dem-leaning district still occupied by a Republican (won by Obama with 61% of the vote).
• NV-02: A credible Democratic challenger to Dean Heller has materialized. Douglas County school board president Cindy Trigg plans to announce her candidacy next week. This district, once a Republican stronghold, went for McCain by less than 100 votes.
• ID-01: Walt Minnick just got some fundraising help from an unexpected place. Former two-term GOP senator from Idaho Steve Symms is headlining Minnick's April 23 breakfast fundraiser.
• NRCC: Campaign Diaries has the full list of all 43 Dems targeted in the GOP's big radio-spot-and-robocall blitz.
• Where Are They Now?: Tom Feeney: just took a job with noted think-tank the Heritage Foundation, to focus on "community outreach." Bob Ney: just got the 1-3 pm slot on a conservative talk radio station in Moundsville, WV. Chris Chocola: just made it official, that he will be replacing Pat Toomey as head of the Club for Growth. Vito Fossella: just pled guilty to DWI and will serve four days in Alexandria city jail.
• Red Menace: Spencer Bachus (AL-06) just announced that he is holding in his hand a list of 17 socialists in Congress. We all know about Bernie Sanders; anyone care to hazard a guess who the other 16 are?
You've got to hand it to GOP Rep. Bill "Brain Fade" Sali -- he sure keeps things interesting. Just check out what he had to say in the Sunday edition of the Idaho Statesman's Voter Guide. Sali and his Democratic opponent, businessman Walt Minnick, were both asked: "What has been a turning point or a challenge in your adult life?" (Emphasis mine.)
Minnick gave a thoughtful answer about his decision to resign from his job at the Nixon White House during the Watergate Scandal.
Bill Sali was assigned a book report in the fourth grade. Uncharacteristically, he blew it off. "I procrastinated," Sali said. "When I didn't get it done, I took an F." It was the first and last 'F' Sali ever got, and it became a transforming experience for the future congressman. From that point on he always was a good student, and while he acknowledged that he dropped some classes in college because he took on too much class load, he never again failed. "It changed my focus," Sali said in a telephone interview. "It was a turning point for me because I knew I had to be serious about things."
Yup, the most formative experience of Sali's life was flunking that book report in grade school. This might explain a few things.
Here at the Swing State Project, we've followed his career closely ever since he first ran for Congress last cycle. Sali caught our attention with his extraordinary primary victory in 2006, chalking up a victory with an astounding 26% of the vote - this despite a major infusion of support from the Club for Growth. We thought we might have a real live one on our hands, a real nutter nobody liked. But just how disliked was he?
As it turns out, a whole hell of a lot. The Republican Speaker of the Idaho House said of Sali:
"That idiot is just an absolute idiot. He doesn't have one ounce of empathy in his whole fricking body. And you can put that in the paper."
Today, in the Idaho Press-Tribune in Nampa, second-place finisher Robert Vasquez, a Canyon County commissioner, said he'd never vote for GOP primary victor Bill Sali because, "I would not and do not and cannot endorse a liar for Congress."
Simpson said he was irritated but had no intention of assaulting Sali. He added, however, that as House colleagues heard the story, many told him, "The third floor wasn't high enough. You should have taken him up to the fourth floor."
"Bruce has been a great speaker of the House," Otter said. "And as he told me, he learned everything that he knows from Mike Simpson. And that is why every time he has a bad day, he goes and beats the hell out of Bill Sali."
And that's just his own party. The maniacs at the Club for Growth had to bail Sali out yet again in the general, and even Dick Cheney spent some time hustling for dollars and votes in this district, which gave fully 70% of its vote to George Bush. In the end, Sali won just 50-45 over a Democrat he out-spent by 50%.
The amazing thing is that the fun never stopped with Bill Sali. Sometimes, serious screwups who manage to fail upward to the United States House of Representatives just learn to shut up and keep a low profile. Not Sali - he's way too colossal for that.
Six months into his term, Sali's approval rating stood at an impressive 29-46. Things clearly hadn't changed much a year later, when he squeaked through a primary against a guy who raised just $70K with only 57% of the vote. (I guess compared to his first primary, that looked downright awesome.)
He managed to continue his winning ways by supporting an insurgent challenge to Gov. Otter's preferred state party chair. Meanwhile, he stopped paying his consultant's bills, carrying a debt of $76,000 - no small sum in Idaho, and a dangerous fuck-you to other campaign vendors in such a tightly-knit political community.
It gets better. John Boehner, doubtless gritting his teeth, helped defile the English language like a good Inner Party member by adding Sali to the "Regain Our Majority Program." Yes, I know, you can't regain the majority by buttressing incumbents, but maybe Boehner just didn't feel like printing up different stationery.
Sali repaid the gesture with classic brain fade accuity. When the time came to file second-quarter fundraising reports, his finance staff declared that the dog ate their laptop. James Hell made this fine .TXT catch:
I am unable to file the 2nd quarter 2008 FEC report, as FEC technical support is still attempting to fix the Sali for Congress data file. I first attempted to upload a file to the FEC site on June 6. I again tried on June 9, using the new FEC software update, without success. I then sent FEC technical support a copy of the Sali for Congress FEC file. FEC technical support is still attempting to fix the file so that it may be uploaded. I am in regular contact with FEC technical support and the FEC analyst, in an effort to resolve this matter.
It took these clowns twenty-six days to figure out how to file their report (the law gives you 15), and even then it was still a shambles - just like the rest of Sali's campaign. He opened an office in - I kid you not - the wrong congressional district (Idaho's only got two). But the best was announced just recently: as a cornerstone of his fundraising plan, Bill Sali plans to hold yard sales to fill his campaign coffers. No word yet if Plan B is to rummage through the county dump for some discarded treasures - but I think we can assume that's probably on the list.
Meanwhile, Sali has drawn some very high-quality opposition in the form of businessman Walt Minnick. Minnick has consolidated support throughout Idaho and has also outraised Sali by a considerable margin - over $350K.
He's impressed the DCCC, too - not only have they added him to the Red to Blue program, they've reserved $350K in ad time in the district, which will go along way in this cheap media market. Panicked, the NRCC responded with a $500K reservation, but will they really be able to afford to spend the full amount? And you just know Tom Cole is grimacing at the thought of having to shell out cash to save this jerkwad's sorry ass.
SSP has long felt that, in the rubric we use, an upset could not be ruled out in this seat, just thanks to Sali's poor political skills. But he's managed to make things a whole lot worse in his brief time in office. He really is the perfect fuckup. Combined with a top-notch Democratic candidate who has run a flawless campaign, polling showing a competitive contest, and an environment which (even post-Palin) is still hostile for Republican incumbents, we feel compelled to upgrade this race to "Lean Republican". For an R+19 seat, it's not a decision we undertake lightly, but it's a decision we feel is supported by all the available evidence, and one we're comfortable making.
You can find the Swing State Project's complete list of ratings for competitive House races here.
Harstad Strategic Research for Walt Minnick (9/9-11, likely voters):
Walt Minnick (D): 43
Bill Sali (R-inc): 38
(MoE: ±4.9%)
These numbers paint a dramatically different picture of the race than a recent Research 2000 poll conducted for Daily Kos that showed Sali leading by 46-35. In that survey, Minnick had suspiciously high unfavorable numbers (41% favorable, 40% unfavorable), which is hard to explain given that Minnick has been airing nothing but unanswered positive bio ads for the past two months. In Minnick's poll, his favorables are at 39% and his unfavorables are at 12% -- I find this spread much more believable than R2K's poll.
The poll has some more good news: Bill Sali's favorables are pretty low (36-37) and his job approval is even worse (28-52). The cherry on top: only 22% of voters say that they're going vote to re-elect Sali, while 26% say they'll consider someone else, and 33% are definitely voting for someone else. A good base of anti-Sali and persuadable voters there.
The full polling memo is available below the fold.
Apparently Bill Sali's bad case of 'brain fade' impairs his ability to read a map, because he has opened his campaign headquarters for his race to win a second term in ID-01... in ID-02. [Link is behind paid firewall; sorry!]
Idaho congressman Bill Sali has opened a new campaign office just upstairs from his congressional office in Boise - both of them in the 2nd Congressional District. Sali represents the 1st District.
"It's a convenient location, and it's a centralized location where people can interact easier with the congressional office," said Sali spokesman Wayne Hoffman. "It's in downtown Boise. A lot of people come downtown to see the offices of their elected officials."
So there's not only the matter of being in the wrong district, but this also raises the question of building the proper separation between campaign and congressional offices. Oh, well... based on Sali's skill at filing his FEC notices, it's not like he's let a few 'rules' ever get in his way.
Democratic opponent Walt Minnick has an office located in the western part of Boise, in ID-01. (He also has almost twice as much cash on hand as Sali.)
UPDATE: Wow, Sali's not the only one. Turns out John Shadegg's campaign HQ is in AZ-04 instead of AZ-03, too!
This just in: the DCCC has announced that congressional challengers Ashwin Madia (MN-03) and Walt Minnick (ID-01) have been added to the Red to Blue program. Madia, fresh off the official endorsement of the state Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party in Minnesota, is running for the open seat vacated by the retiring Jim Ramstad (R). Madia is a particularly notable figure because of his humble roots-- he grew up in poverty, the son of immigrants from India-- and because of his service as a Marine in the Iraq War. His only Republican opponent at this time is State Rep. Erik Paulsen.
Walt Minnick is a Harvard-educated businessman and an advocate for environmental conservation. He has a moderate track record in terms of his work for both political parties. In running against Congressman Bill Sali, Minnick will give residents of the Boise region a chance to be represented by a competent person, rather than a complete nutjob.
So, congrats to both, and bravo to the DCCC-- strength in numbers! Woohoo!
What is it with Bill Sali?
