Democratic Gerrymander of VA Senate

by: M Riles

Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 9:53 PM EST

I've attempted to create a map that balances the interests of current senators in reelection and the national interests of the party in maintaining control by any means necessary.  I think I've been able to sufficiently protect all incumbents while maximizing the number of Democratic districts, and the map is a large improvement over the current Republican gerrymander.  Although conventional wisdom holds that each chamber will draw its own lines, I'm not sure the House of Delegates would approve something like this map.

Western Virginia:

District 15: Open
Obama 53.9%
Democratic 51.1%

District 19: Ralph Smith (R)
Obama 38.3%
Democratic 40.1%

District 20: Roscoe Reynolds (D)
Obama 52.2%
Democratic 49.5%

District 21: John Edwards (D)
Obama 52.6%
Democratic 51.8%

District 22: Open
Obama 34.4%
Democratic 38.7%

District 23: Steve Neuman (R), Bill Stanley (R)
Obama 33.5%
Democratic 35.3%
Note: Making a last minute change with the 21st, I accidentally cut this district in half, but it would only require shifting one precinct to make the district contiguous.

District 24: Emmett Hanger (R)
Obama 34.7%
Democratic 33.0%

District 25 Creigh Deeds (D)
Obama 58.4%
Democratic 56.3%

District 38: Phil Puckett (D)
Obama 50.2%
Democratic 52.1%

District 40: William Wampler (R)
Obama 34.1%
Democratic 38.1%

Eastern Virginia:

District 1: Tommy Norment (R)
Obama 41.1%
Democratic 41.2%

District 2: Mamie Locke (D), John Miller (D) (maybe)
Obama 72.3%
Democratic 66.3%
Black VAP 51.1%

District 3: Ryan McDougal (R), Walter Stosch (R)
Obama 35.8%
Democratic 35.2%

District 4: Richard Stuart (R)
Obama 45.1%
Democratic 42.5%

District 5: Yvonne Miller (D)
Obama 72.7%
Democratic 67.9%
Black VAP 51.3%

District 6: Ralph Northam (D)
Obama 56.7%
Democratic 52.5%

District 7: Frank Wagner (R)
Obama 55.1%
Democratic 49.5%

District 8: Jeff McWaters (R)
Obama 53.1%
Democratic 52.2%

District 9: Donald McEachin (D)
Obama 74.7%
Democratic 70.5%
Black VAP 56.7%

District 10: John Watkins (R)
Obama 42.2%
Democratic 39.0%

District 11: Steve Martin (R), Frank Ruff (R)
Obama 37.8%
Democratic 35.6%

District 12: Open
Obama 64.1%
Democratic 59.0%

District 13: Fred Quayle (R), John Miller (D) (maybe)
Obama 50.3%
Democratic 49.5%

District 14: Harry Blevins (R)
Obama 39.7%
Democratic 39.0%

District 16: Henry Marsh (D)
Obama 72.1%
Democratic 65.0%
Black VAP 51.0%

District 17: Edd Houck (D)
Obama 51.2%
Democratic 45.2%

District 18: Louise Lucas (D)
Obama 65.1%
Democratic 61.3%
Black VAP 52.3%

Northern Virginia:

District 26: Mark Obenshain (R)
Obama 41.6%
Democratic 37.9%

District 27: Jill Vogel (R)
Obama 37.9%
Democratic 40.6%

District 28: Open
Obama 43.9%
Democratic 41.0%

District 29: Chuck Colgan (D)
Obama 58.9%
Democratic 50.0%

District 30: Patsy Ticer (D)
Obama 68.6%
Democratic 66.2%

District 31: Mary Margaret Whipple (D)
Obama 68.1%
Democratic 70.3%

District 32: Janet Howell (D)
Obama 59.0%
Democratic 57.2%

District 33: Mark Herring (D)
Obama 54.6%
Democratic 49.2%

District 34: Chap Peterson (D)
Obama 58.8%
Democratic 54.7%

District 35: Dick Saslaw (D)
Obama 61.9%
Democratic 58.9%

District 36: Toddy Puller (D)
Obama 68.4%
Democratic 61.5%

District 37: Dave Marsden (D)
Obama 59.4%
Democratic 54.6%

District 39: George Barker (D)
Obama 56.2%
Democratic 53.0%

I would rate the lean of the seats as follows:

Safe Democratic (Obama and Democratic vote percentage both above 50%): 22
Toss-up (Obama percentage or Democratic vote percentage above 50%): 5
Safe Republican (Everything else): 13

Thoughts?

Another Virginia Court-Drawn Map

by: M Riles

Fri Feb 18, 2011 at 7:43 PM EST

1. Preserve a majority-black voter district
2. Avoid county splitting
3. Keep each district limited to one region of the state
4. Compactness

Hampton Roads:

Northern Virginia:

District 1: Tidewater
Incumbent: Rob Wittman (R)
Population: 726,817

Two-Party Partisan Performance:
New District: 45.5% Obama, 43.4% Democratic
Old District: 48.4% Obama, 44.8% Democratic

Racial/Ethnic Demographics:
71.3% White
18.8% Black
04.6% Hispanic
02.2% Asian

This district takes a portion of the northern peninsula in the Hampton Roads area, the rest of the Tidewater area to the north, and ultra-conservative Hanover County north of Richmond. It becomes less Democratic and safely Republican.

District 2: Hampton Roads
Incumbent: Scott Rigell (R), Randy Forbes (R)
Population: 727,545

Two-Party Partisan Performance:
New District: 49.1% Obama, 46.8% Democratic
Old District: 52.4% Obama, 49.1% Democratic

Racial/Ethnic Demographics:
66.3% White
19.1% Black
06.3% Hispanic
04.9% Asian

The district takes in all of Virginia Beach and the Delmarva Peninsula plus the whiter portions of Chesapeake, Portsmouth, and Norfolk.  The district becomes slightly more Republican. It would be tough, but not impossible, for a Democrat to win here. Randy Forbes and Scott Rigell both live in the district, but because this contains much more of Rigell's territory, I think he'd have the edge.

District 3: Hampton Roads (VRA District)
Incumbent: Bobby Scott (D)
Population: 726,624

Two-Party Partisan Performance:
New District: 69.2% Obama, 65.1% Democratic
Old District: 75.7% Obama, 71.3% Democratic

Racial/Ethnic Demographics:
38.3% White
53.2% Black
04.0% Hispanic
01.8% Asian

This district becomes much more compact, leaving the Richmond area. It is still has a majority of black voters, though that majority is a few percentage points smaller. This district is very safe for Democrats.

District 4: Southside
Incumbent: Robert Hurt (R)
Population: 727,567

Two-Party Partisan Performance:
New District: 42.2% Obama, 43.2% Democratic
Old District: 51.0% Obama, 49.0% Democratic

Racial/Ethnic Demographics:
68.0% White
28.0% Black
03.0% Hispanic
01.1% Asian

This district shifts west, taking in Virginia's Southside region. It becomes much more Republican and is probably unwinnable for Democrats.

District 5: Piedmont
Incumbent: None
Population: 728,108

Two-Party Partisan Performance:
New District: 49.7% Obama, 46.2% Democratic
Old District: 48.5% Obama, 47.3% Democratic

Racial/Ethnic Demographics:
73.6% White
14.4% Black
06.2% Hispanic
03.0% Asian

This district shifts north, still containing Charlottesvile but trading Southside for Virginia wine country and portions of the Northern Virginia exurbs. It becomes slightly more Democratic and is winnable with the right candidate. Eric Cantor would probably run here, since it contains a fair amount of his old turf.

District 6: Shenandoah Valley
Incumbent: Bob Goodlatte
Population: 728,381

Two-Party Partisan Performance:
New District: 42.4% Obama, 40.5% Democratic
Old District: 41.9% Obama, 57.9% Democratic

Racial/Ethnic Demographics:
83.9% White
07.9% Black
05.1% Hispanic
01.2% Asian

This is still a Shenandoah Valley district and very, very Republican.

District 7: Richmond
Incumbent: Eric Cantor (R)
Population: 726,869

Two-Party Partisan Performance:
New District: 61.8% Obama, 57.0% Democratic
Old District: 46.6% Obama, 42.1% Democratic

Racial/Ethnic Demographics:
54.0% White
32.7% Black
06.4% Hispanic
04.5% Asian

This district has undergone a huge change, going from a safe Republican to safe Democratic seat.  Eric Cantor would stand little chance of victory here. Sen. Donald McEachin and Del. Jennifer McClellan would be the likely Democratic candidates.

District 8: Northern Virginia
Incumbent: Jim Moran (D)
Population: 727,201

Partisan Performance:
New District: 68.2% Obama*, 54.9% Democratic
Old District: 69.3% Obama*, 57.9% Democratic

Racial/Ethnic Demographics:
52.4% White
14.1% Black
18.9% Hispanic
11.3% Asian

This district contains all of Arlington County and Alexandria City, plus other close-in suburbs in Fairfax County. It becomse slightly less Democratic, but remains safe.

*Note that President Obama's performance is slightly understated due to an error in the data.

District 9: Southwest Virginia
Incumbent: Morgan Griffith (R)
Population: 728,247

Partisan Performance:
New District: 40.1% Obama, 43.2% Democratic
Old District: 40.3% Obama, 43.7% Democratic

Racial/Ethnic Demographics:
92.2% White
03.4% Black
01.8% Hispanic
01.3% Asian

This district contains Southwest Virginia. Its partisan makeup is unchanged and post-Rick Boucher is probably unwinnable for Democrats.

District 10: Northern Virginia
Incumbent: Frank Wolf (R)
Population: 726,837

Two-Party Partisan Performance:
New District: 54.7% Obama*, 53.6% Democratic
Old District: 50.2% Obama*, 47.2% Democratic

Racial/Ethnic Demographics:
62.8% White
06.0% Black
12.6% Hispanic
16.9% Asian

This district shrinks dramatically, dropping its territory outside Northern Virginia. It contains Loudoun County, the City of Falls Church, and northern Fairfax County. The district becomes significantly more Democratic, which might actually encourage a credible challenger to run against Frank Wolf. My guess would be state Sen. Mark Herring.  
*Note that due data errors, this President Obama performed about 2 percentage points better than it appears.

District 11: Northern Virginia
Incumbent: Gerry Connolly (D)
Population: 726,807

Two-Party Partisan Performance:
New District: 57.6% Obama, 51.1% Democratic
Old District: 56.6% Obama, 52.3% Democratic

Racial/Ethnic Demographics:
51.8% White
13.9% Black
17.9% Hispanic
12.6% Asian

This district takes in the remainder of Fairfax County and all of Fairfax City, Mannassas, Manassas Park, and Prince William County.  The partisan composition doesn't change much.  Since Conolly survived 2010, I have to beleive he'll be fine in the future.

This map would probably produce 5 Democrats and 6 Republicans.

Fair redistricting in VA

by: drobertson

Thu Feb 17, 2011 at 9:12 PM EST

2010 Virginia & Majority-Minority Districts

by: borodino21

Thu Feb 17, 2011 at 4:28 PM EST

Jim Webb retires

by: Bharat

Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 11:53 AM EST

Census 2010 Quick Cuts: A 5-5-1 Virginia

by: jeffmd

Fri Feb 04, 2011 at 7:48 PM EST

Democrats don't control redistricting in Virginia...but that doesn't mean it wouldn't be interesting to see what could happen.

Here's one proposal, a 5-5-1 map, with the swing district being perfect for a Tom Perriello comeback.

LA, MS, NJ, VA: Population by CD for First Four States

by: DavidNYC

Fri Feb 04, 2011 at 3:17 AM EST

Redistricting the Virginia State Senate: Can Democrats Maintain a Majority?

by: Johnny Longtorso

Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 2:56 PM EST

VA Redistricting D+1?

by: roguemapper

Mon Jan 10, 2011 at 4:49 PM EST

In any case, I decided to do a Virginia redistricting map after reading that Governor McDonnell had created a bipartisan advisory committee.  Three points are worth noting about Virginia redistricting:

1) The legislature is under split control.

2) Virginia redistricting is always highly scrutinized for VRA purposes.

3) Virginia redistricting has tended to favor 'least-change' maps with whole county lines wherever possible.

In any case, I was just curious to do a 'least-change' map based on the new population estimates at Dave's app to see whether it seemed any of the Virginia districts might be significantly affected from a partisan standpoint. The one that jumps out at me is VA-10. The only other district that changed significantly was VA-05, which picks up heavily Republican suburbs of Richmond.

Here's my statewide map. More on VA-10 after the fold!

Just Whistling Dixie: Unlikely Pro-Democratic Maps for Four Southern States (AL, KY, LA, VA)

by: borodino21

Mon Dec 27, 2010 at 4:23 PM EST