Virginia fair maps, Congress, State Senate and State House

by: Warning_Crazy

Thu Apr 28, 2011 at 1:05 PM EDT

Virginia State Senate Map

by: GeoffreyVS

Tue Mar 22, 2011 at 7:02 PM EDT

Due to the off-year nature of elections in Virginia, it is more difficult to predict turnout and momentum, particularly with the 2011 election coming up in November affecting all 40 Senate seats and the 100 seats in the HoD. While the 2009 election had the governor's race at the top of the ticket, it did not impact the State Senate because its seats are elected in non-gubernatorial years. Considering the disastrous performance of the Democratic candidates on top of the ticket which contributed to the loss of five Democratic seats in the HoD, we can be thankful that this is the case. Otherwise, the GOP would likely have taken control of the State Senate in addition to the governorship and thus controlled the entire redistricting process.

With all of this in mind, I have been formulating a State Senate map that both protects the Democratic majority and gives it a chance to increase its lead given the right circumstances. In doing so, I've attempted to not draw GOP incumbents out of their districts because of how this would likely engender resentment and could upset the redistricting deal. I've also tried to draw realistic districts though my map is certainly a gerrymander - however, based on the previous State Senate map, I don't think it's any worse in terms of compactness or ignoring communities of common interest. Additionally, I preserved all black majority-minority districts in the Tidewater and around Richmond, as well as the same number of white plurality districts in Northern Virginia (NoVA). In reviewing the new districts I drew, I will refer to their old Dem-GOP and Obama-McCain numbers based on an attempted sketch that I made of the current districts on Dave's Redistricting App. I have also kept every district's population total inside of 1,000 from the ideal number. The final result of my efforts is this map, which creates a good chance for a 24-16 Democratic edge after 2011 (if everything goes according to plan):

Unfortunately, I couldn't manage to draw my home town of Harrisonburg into a Democratic district, but you can't win them all. Anyway, details on my map are after the jump.

VA - A foreigner's (first) attempt at a "good governance" redistricting map for Virginia

by: nimh

Sat Mar 19, 2011 at 3:11 PM EDT

Dear all,

This is the first time I've tried using Dave's App and making a redistricting map. I'm hoping you could tell me what things I've done wrong. (For one, I've kept the population of each district very close to the target population, 3,000 off at most, because I didn't know just how close you have to keep it. Could I have been more flexible?)

This is the map, but please do read on:

First off, I had an idea with this map. Most of the redistricting maps here are drawn, with great expertise, to either create the most realistically (or unrealistically) Democratic-friendly map; or, in a know-your-enemy / worst-case-scenario kind of way, the most GOP-friendly map; or the map that best fits the current political realities of the state, trying to guess what the real map will end up being.

Since I have nowhere near enough expertise to weigh in, I've just been observing, with some awe. But, as a foreigner, I still have trouble getting over my initial incredulity at the whole American practice of gerrymandering in the first place. The kind of gerrymandering that yields these sometimes mindbogglingly contorted looking districts, tracing unlikely looking paths from, say, the suburbs of one city to those of another halfway across the state, often seemingly without regard to keeping communities together. It's one of the oddest and unhealthy looking aspects of the US political system, for an outsider.

I'm from a country where we don't have any districts at all (it's all PR), and both in my adopted home country and the big European countries I know best (Germany, the UK), nothing like this kind of gerrymandering seems to exist. And often when I see the draft maps here, I can't help fantasizing about what a redistricting map purely based on good governance would look like. (I'm really curious what the new CA and FL maps will look like!)

Continued beneath the fold ... 

Virginia: 2 Maps

by: sawolf

Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 2:13 AM EDT

First Map:

Mini Redistricting Contest: Virginia, Part 2

by: DavidNYC

Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 10:51 PM EDT

UPDATE: SaoMagnifico has a map in the first thread taking another crack at the "compromise" plan.

Mini Redistricting Contest: Virginia

by: DavidNYC

Mon Mar 14, 2011 at 11:35 PM EDT

Members of Virginia's House delegation unanimously agreed to a redistricting plan that will protect all of their seats and strengthen the three GOP freshmen who ousted Democratic incumbents last November, POLITICO has learned.

The new map, according to multiple sources in both parties who are familiar with the plan, was crafted in the past month chiefly by Virginia's eight GOP members. But it has received crucial private support from the state's three House Democrats - notably Rep. Gerry Connolly, who barely survived reelection last November and whose Capitol Beltway-area district would get a Democratic bump.

The delegation is hoping for legislative approval in three weeks when the politically divided General Assembly convenes a special session.

So here's the contest: Though the details are sketchy, draw what you think this map might look like using Dave's Redistricting App. Make sure to read the entire Politico piece - most of the details are on the second page. Dave Wasserman has some ideas (here and here), but what are yours?

UPDATE: Looks like we have three entries so far: sawolf, okiedem, and drobertson. Whaddya think?

Virginia: A Democratic gerrymander of the Old Dominion

by: GeoffreyVS

Sun Mar 13, 2011 at 4:14 PM EDT

Naturally, the map I produced here is entirely unrealistic, if not because of the shape and scope of some of the districts I drew but because of the fact that the GOP controls the Virginia House of Delegates and the governor's mansion. With the Democrats controlling the State Senate, it seems likely that a incumbent-protection map will be drawn this time around.

However, I set this map up to create the opportunity for Democrats to control seven of the state's eleven House seats. The result was more or less a 6-1-4 map (7-4), with a D+3 seat in the Tidewater as the swing-iest district.

Without further adieu, here is the final product:

Virginia I hardly knew ye (6R-5D w/o Wolf)

by: DGM

Sun Mar 13, 2011 at 2:10 PM EDT

You know, I've got to say, I find it interesting that so many people think that Virginia must be destined to have a shored up 8-3 map (with Gerry Connolly's 11th district being only marginally Democratic!) With Democrats still in control of the senate, I find it hard to believe that they're just going to just allow the Republicans to hold so many seats (and just shore them up). This map is probably not the one that gets made (I don't know where incumbents live and as such I probably drew a few out of where they live), but I think it's a lot closer to what Democrats are going to try for rather than just allowing Republicans to strengthen all of their seats. So my goal here was to keep 5 Republican incumbents, shore up Gerry Connolly, weaken Scott Rigell, and make Frank Wolf's district more Democratic (thus giving us the seat when he retires).

With that said, my vision for Virginia below the fold:

Virginia Bipartisan Map: 7-4 (Updated with Vote Totals)

by: Alibguy

Sun Mar 13, 2011 at 10:35 AM EDT

I was reading the recent diary on Virginia redistricting and saw people calling for a 7-4 Republican map. I decided to post this one to see how it works.

Both parties have a voice in Virginia's redistricting process this year so expect either a quick compromise or a long battle that ends in a court drawn map. The Republicans control the Governorship and the State House but the Democrats control the State Senate. The Republicans hold an 8-3 majority of Virginia's House seats, 3 of them were won in 2010. The Republicans will want to protect their freshman Robert Hurt (R) and Scott Rigell (R) who won in swing districts as well as Frank Wolf (R) whose district is trending Democratic. Trying to protect them all will be difficult because the Republicans will not want to create a dummymander. Therefore, I drew a 7-4 Republican map that the Republicans will like because although they lose one district, the 2nd and 5th districts are now more Republican. The Democrats should like this plan too because it strengthens the 11th district and creates a new Democratic district. I also ensured that the 3rd district's African American population exceeded 50%. As for the districts on the map, there are 3 Safe Democratic, 1 Likely Democratic, 1 Lean Republican, 2 Likely Republican and 4 Safe Republican.

Here is a link with a map of Virginia's current congressional districts (after clicking the link, scroll down to the bottom of the page:) http://www.nationalatlas.gov/p...

A few notes: The "Average 2000-2009" refers to the average performance of Democrats and Republicans in that district from 2000 to 2009. Change does not refer to the average performance; change refers to how well Obama performed in the new district compared to the old one. "Old Demographics" refers to the demographics of the old district in 2000.

Virginia

Virginia's 1st Congressional District Rob Whitman (R) Blue
President 2008: Obama 143,841 47%, McCain 165,688 53%
Average 2000-2009: Democrats 101,210 44%, Republicans 128,630 56%
Change: McCain +3
Demographics: 6.1% Hispanic, 19.7% African American, 68.8% White
Old Demographics: 18.4% African American, 74.7% White
Status: Safe Republican

This district becomes more Republican as it loses parts of Newport News and Hampton in the south and losing Democratic Prince William County in the north. To keep population equal with other districts, the 1st district gains Republican leaning rural counties such as New Kent. The 1st district also picks up the Delmarva Peninsula which leans Democratic but the removal of most of Newport News makes this district more Republican.

Hampton Roads

Virginia's 2nd Congressional District Scott Rigell (R) vs. Randy Forbes (R) ? Green
President 2008: Obama 139,807 48%, McCain 152,608 52%
Average 2000-2009: Democrats 101,215 46%, McCain 121,240 54%
Change: McCain +6
Demographics: 5.0% Asian, 5.9% Hispanic, 21.3% African American, 64.2% White
Old Demographics: 21.4% African American, 67.0% White
Status: Lean Republican

I could not do much to strengthen Rigell because I had to keep the 3rd district majority African American so it could not pick up many precincts that voted for Obama and had a low African American population. Anyway, I strengthened Rigell a bit by removing Hampton and most of Norfolk. I also added Republican parts of Chesapeake where Rep. Randy Forbes (R) of the 4th district lives. If he chooses to run in the 2nd, he will have the seniority advantage but more of Rigell's current district is in the 2nd. Also, Forbes is popular because although Obama won his district, Forbes has won easily in the past few elections.

Virginia's 3rd Congressional District Bobby Scott (D) Dark Magenta
President 2008: Obama 194,505 69%, McCain 85,991 31%
Average 2000-2009: Democrats 123,854 64%, McCain 69,604 36%
Change: McCain +14
Demographics: 51.3% African American, 39.0% White
Old Demographics: 56.0% African American, 37.7% White
Status: Safe Democratic

Scott's district gets more Republican as it loses all of Richmond and picks up less Democratic precincts from the 1st in Newport News. I kept the district majority African American by picking up African American areas in Suffolk, Petersburg, and Sussex County. Although Scott's district becomes more Republican, it is still extremely safe for him and majority African American. He should have no problems winning reelection.

Richmond Area

Virginia's 4th Congressional District Robert Hurt (R) vs. Randy Forbes (R) ? Red
President 2008: Obama 133,903 42%, McCain 187,735 58%
Average 2000-2009: Democrats 97,669 41%, Republicans 142,126 59%
Change: McCain +17
Demographics: 23.3% African American, 71.1% White
Old Demographics: 33.1% African American, 62.0% White
Status: Safe Republican

Forbes may run here because this district contains some of his current territory in Chesterfield County and some southeastern rural counties. Hurt will run too because his home Chatham is in this district. If Forbes ran, As for Hurt's district, I strengthened it because the Republicans will try to protect him from a tough race. I removed heavily Democratic Charlottesville from Charlottesville while adding parts of the current 4th district such as Republican Amelia County near Richmond. Hurt should have no trouble winning reelection here.

Virginia's 5th Congressional District Vacant Eric Cantor (R) ? Yellow
President 2008: Obama 129,143 43%, McCain 175,646 57%
Average 2000-2009: Democrats 92,922 40%, McCain 137,356 60%
Change: N/A
Demographics: 5.4% Hispanic, 10.8% African American, 79.9% White
Old Demographics: N/A
Status: Safe Republican

Cantor's 7th district is now Democratic so I expect him to run here, although his home is in the 7th district. The 5th district contains much of his current territory by including some conservative rural counties near Richmond such as Goochland, Hanover County in the Richmond exurbs, Spotsylvania County in the D.C exurbs and the string of rural counties in Central Virginia in Cantor's current district. The 5th district also picks up some far D.C exurbs though because it represents Winchester and western Loudon County. Cantor used to represent a 53% McCain district that was trending Democratic but his district is now 55% McCain and the rural areas are not trending Democratic. Cantor should be safe here.

Virginia's 6th Congressional District Bob Goodlatte (R) Teal
President 2008: Obama 137,543 46%, McCain 162,585 54%
Average 2000-2009: Democrats 102,396 44%, Republicans 130,058 56%
Change: Obama + 7
Demographics: 9.1% African American, 82.2% White
Old Demographics: 10.9% African American, 84.8% White
Status: Safe Republican

Goodlatte's district becomes more Democratic as it loses heavily Republican Amherst County and picks up Charlottesville. The Republicans will probably want Charlottesville in Goodlatte's district because it provided Tom Perrellio with his winning margin and more in 2008 and Goodlatte has enough Republicans in his district to offset Democratic votes in Charlottesville. Goodlatte should be safe here.

Virginia's 7th Congressional District Vacant Gray
President 2008: Obama 186,082 61%, 121,294 McCain 39%
Average 2000-2009: Democrats 124,386 54%, Republicans 105,495 46%
Change: N/A
Demographics: 6.7% Hispanic, 34.5% African American, 52.0% White
Old Demographics: N/A
Status: Safe Democratic

Republicans may decide to sacrifice one district in order to protect Robert Hurt and Eric Cantor. The 7th district also helps Scott Rigell (R) in the 2nd district because by losing Richmond, the 3rd district has to pick up African American areas currently in the 2nd district so the 3rd can remain majority African American. Anyway, the 7th district is a combination of the current 3rd, 4th and 7th districts. The 7th contains all of Richmond, all of Henrico County, Chesterfield County's close in suburbs and Hopewell. In the current map, the Richmond area is split between three districts but the Richmond area now has its own district so Richmond area legislators should like this district. Possible candidates for this seat could be State Senator Donald McEachin (D) who represents part of Henrico County or Henry Marsh (D) who represents some heavily African American parts of the district.

Northern Virginia

Virginia's 8th Congressional District Jim Moran (D) Slate Blue
President 2008: Obama 178,372 66%, McCain 92,487 34%
Average 2000-2009: Democrats 146,592 64%, Republicans 82,791 36%
Change: McCain +7
Demographics: 12.5% Asian, 16.5% Hispanic, 9.9% African American, 57.9% White
Old Demographics: 9.5% Asian, 16.4% Hispanic, 13.4% African American, 57.1% White
Status: Safe Democratic

Moran's district does not undergo major changes as Moran retains his base in Arlington and Alexandria. His district becomes a few points more Republican in order to protect Gerry Connelly (D) of the 11th district. Moran loses the close in suburbs near Alexandria such as Fort Washington to the 11th District. To compensate for the loss of the close in suburbs near Alexandria, the 8th district gains Democratic parts of McLean, Oakton, Herndon and Tysons Corner. Although Moran's district is not as Democratic as its current form, Moran should have no problems winning reelection in the general or the primary.

Virginia's 9th Congressional District Morgan Griffith (R) Periwinkle
President 2008: Obama 111,232 40%, McCain 166,719 60%
Average 2000-2009: Democrats 94,587 43%, Republicans 123,531 57%
Change: McCain +1
Demographics: 3.7% African American, 92.1% White
Old Demographics: 3.8% African American, 93.3% White
Status: Likely Republican

Griffith's district does not undergo major changes as he loses Alleghany County which usually votes Democratic at a local level. The 9th district had slow population growth so the 9th gained Franklin and Bedford Counties which are both strongly Republican. It is possible Rick Boucher (D) who previously held this district will run again but it will be more difficult for him because of the new Republican counties in the district. Anyway, it was difficult to strength Griffith without creating convoluted lines or making the 6th district Democratic enough for a competitive race.

Virginia's 10th Congressional District Frank Wolf (R) Deep Pink
President 2008: Obama 149,174 53%, McCain 132,937 47%
Average 2000-2009: Democrats 107,560 49%, Republicans 113,791 51%
Change: McCain +1
Demographics: 17.9% Asian, 11.0% Hispanic, 6.9% African American, 60.7% White
Old Demographics: 6.6% Asian, 7.1% Hispanic, 6.7% African American, 77.2% White
Status: Likely Republican

Northern Virginia is trending Democratic so drawing Wolf a district that will be safe Republican in the long term is impossible but I drew a district that should protect him for the next few years. I removed the western part of the district around Winchester which leans Republican but I also removed the Democratic parts of Herndon, McLean and Manassas. Although the 10th district is growing quickly, it had to gain a few more areas so it gained some moderate areas near Fairfax City and some conservative parts of Prince William County. Wolf is popular so he should hold this seat. If he retires though, Democrats will have a shot here.

Virginia's 11th Congressional District Gerry Connelly (D) chartreuse
President 2008: Obama 149,097 60%, McCain 99,321 40%
Average 2000-2009: Democrats 105,702 55%, Republicans 88,099 45%
Change: Obama +5
Demographics: 10.6% Asian, 21.4% Hispanic, 17.4% African American, 46.9% White
Old Demographics: 10.9% Asian, 9.1% Hispanic, 10.1% African American, 66.8% White
Status: Likely Democratic

Connelly faced a tough race last year from Keith Fimian (R) in 2010 which is a high water mark for Republicans. If Connelly could survive in 2010, he can survive any year barring a major scandal. Anyway, I strengthened Connelly so he would not have another tough race. I removed the moderate areas near Fairfax City, Fimian's home Oakton, and conservative parts of Prince William County. I added Democratic areas near Alexandria and Democratic Manassas. These changes should protect Connelly

Virginia - 7D, 4R

by: eschaton

Fri Feb 25, 2011 at 1:53 PM EST