These are the Labor Day election forecasts of Stochastic Democracy, in collaboration with Professor Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium. We have launched a new Election Forecasting System for House, Senate and Gubernatorial Elections and for tracking the Generic Ballot.
But before we discuss the forecasts in more detail, let me first get out of the way who we are and why you should listen to what we're predicting:
The team consists of David Shor, Harry Enten, and Rasmus Pianowski. David is a Math student currently visiting Princeton University as a Visiting Graduate Student. Harry is an undergraduate at Dartmouth and an intern at Pollster.com. Rasmus (that's me) is a freshman at University of Hamburg, he has done political consulting and Media Outreach work for Montana congressional candidate Tyler Gernant.
The site is closely affiliated to Professor Wang's Princeton Election Consortium.
In 2008, we correctly predicted the results of 49 of the 50 states in the Presidential Election, missing only Indiana (where we predicted that Obama had a 48% chance to win). We correctly predicted every single Senate and Gubernatorial election, and were off onthe national popular vote for President by only 0.08%..
We also predicted that Obama would get 364 Electoral Votes, he ended up with 365 Electoral Votes.
In 2009, we correctly predicted the outcome of the 2009 Israeli Knesset election as well as 4 of the 5 notoriously hard to predict 2009 off-year elections- Pollster.com got only 2 correct, 538.com didn't even put up predictions.
And we have a solid forecasting methodology that combines advanced statistical techniques with a huge polling database- and we do account for House Effects, so that you can be sure that our ratings aren't swayed by Republican-leaning Rasmussen Reports polls too much.
Now on to the Forecasts.
Let me get out the bad news, and there is a lot of bad news, quickly:
The GOP is favored to take over the House, several Senate seats and Governorships.
For a complete list of election results, please visit Stochastic Democracy, here you'll only find an analysis of several important races, maps and tables with results for select races.
Senate
As you can see, things look rather badly for the Democrats on the Senate front. While Republicans seem like relatively heavy underdogs to get a majority in the Senate, they at least will pick up several seats.
Arkansas, North Dakota, Indiana and Delaware are gone. With deficits of more than 15% in even the closest of these four races, it doesn't make much sense to keep fighting except for helping down-ballot races.
In Pennsylvania, Joe Sestak has a fighting chance to mount yet another comeback, but so far his campaign hasn't really taken off and with less than two months to go until the election he's down against Pat Toomey by a bit less than 6%.
Colorado is close right now, even though the Republican candidate Ken Buck is ahead by a bit more than three points right now. The infighting among Colorado Conservatives in the Gubernatorial race might help Bennet to catch up.
In Florida the race is all but officially between incumbent Governor Charlie Crist, the Republican-turned Independent, and Tea Party favorite, Marco Rubio. The Democratic candidate Kendrick Meek has just about a 1 in 200 chance to win, while Rubio maintains a 4.5 point-advantage over Crist. The race is so unstable though that Crist can easily come back- or collapse.
In all other races, the incumbent party is currently favored (more or less) to retain their seats. For the Republicans, that means that Rob Portman (OH), Roy Blunt (MO), Rand Paul (KY), Richard Burr (NC) and the winner of the New Hampshire GOP primary (probably Kelly Ayotte) will more likely than not win.
The likely Democratic winners include Harry Reid (NV), Alexi Gianoullias (IL), Barbara Boxer (CA), Russ Feingold (WI)and Joe Manchin (WV), who is so heavily favored to retain the late Senator Byrd's seat that this race doesn't show up in the 'most likely pickups' table. On the other hand, Gianoullias, Reid and Feingold are all in races that could still go either way, even though they're favored over their respective opponents right now.
Gubernatorial races
In the gubernatorial races, there are a few more highlights for Democrats, even though the bottom line looks rather bleak for Democrats here as well.
We are almost sure to lose six Governorships to the Republicans: In Kansas, Michigan, Iowa, Tennessee, Pennsylvania and Illinois. In every of those races except for Illinois, the Republican candidate is ahead by double digits, and most likely less than two months won't be enough to close that gap.
On the bright side, we're also almost certain to pick up the Governorships of Hawaii, Minnesota and Connecticut.
Maine is a race that doesn't qualify as a 'sure loss' yet, but it doesn't look good for Democrats, as Republican Paul LePage is leading Democrat Libby Mitchell by more than 8 points.
In the close battleground races it currently looks like Republican John Kasich is going to unseat incumbent Governor Ted Strickland of Ohio, Kasich is currently ahead by 4 points. The same could be said of New Mexico's gubernatorial race, where Republican Susana Martinez is favored to beat the Democratic Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish. Both of these races are close enough for Strickland and Denish to mount a comeback though.
Meanwhile, Democrats look like slight favorites in the gubernatorial elections of Florida, where Democrat Alex Sink leads the scandal-ridden Republican nominee Rick Scott, and in Rhode Island, where Democrat Frank Caprio is a slight favorite to win the governorship, edging former independent U.S. Senator Lincoln Chaffee. The Republican candidate is far behind.
Meanwhile, the true Toss-ups right now are in California (Brown vs. Whitman), Wisconsin (Barrett vs. Walker), and Oregon (Kitzhaber vs. Dudley). None of these races have a clear favorite right now, even though Barrett, Brown and Dudley would be slight favorites if the election was held today.
Democratic Governor Martin O'Malley (MD) and Republican Governor Rick Perry (TX)are both moderately favored to win their re-election bids against strong challengers, respectively former Governor Bob Ehrlich and Houston Mayor Bill White.
Incumbent party-candidates in New Hampshire (Lynch), Georgia (Deal), Massachusetts (Patrick) and in all races that aren't listed here are favored to win their elections.
U.S. House
I don't have enough space here to talk about all the interesting races as in the Senate and Governor sections, so let me just highlight the results of a couple of races that I know are dear to the netroots and of some especially close races:
In Florida-08 (Grayson-D), Alan Grayson is projected to lose to his challenger, Dan Webster, by 7.5%. He still has about a 25% chance to win reelection. Keep in mind that our model does not directly look at fundraising (it does look at Cook ratings though, and Cook does include fundraising in his ratings)- and Grayson has a gigantic warchest.
In Illinois-10 (open-R) Dan Seals is a slight favorite to finally become a U.S. Representative after twice unsuccessfully running against Mark Kirk.
In New York-20 (Murphy-D), Scott Murphy, who was elected with a strong Kossack phonebanking drive in the 2009 special election to replace Senator Gillibrand, looks like a slight favorite to win reelection. Bill Owens in NY-23 is a slight underdog though.
In Virginia-5 (Periello-D), red-district Progressive Tom Periello will almost certainly lose reelection.
In Idaho-1 (Minnick-D), the probably most conservative House Democrat Walt Minnick is projected to be a slight underdog in his reelection bid. You shouldn't take this number too seriously though: This race is extreme. Minnick was, and the model can't incorporate this, endorsed by the Tea Party Express and the Chamber of Commerce and praised by the Club for Growth, and the NRCC has already pulled resources from this district in the light of polls that show Minnick far ahead of his Republican opponent. Expect this number to shift as more polls come in, but right now our model isn't convinced of Minnick's staying power, as McCain won the district by a 61-35 margin in the 2008 Presidential Election while Minnick just barely beat a disliked Republican incumbent who won only 60% of his primary vote after winning a six-way GOP primary with 26% of the vote in 2006.
Races on knife's edge: Here you can really make a difference
Julie Lassa (D) vs. Sean Duffy (R) (WI-07, Obey retiring)
Rep. Gerry Connoly (D) vs. Keith Firmian (R) (VA-11)
Rep. Phil Hare (D) vs. Robby Schilling (R) (IL-17)
Colleen Hanabusa (D) (likely) vs. Rep. Charles Djou (R) (HI-01)
Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) vs. Jesse Kelly (R) (AZ-08)
All of these 5 races are so close that every additional volunteer or donor might tip the race.
Summary: Again, the bottom line isn't pretty: The Democrats are likely to lose the House, several Senate seats and more Governorships than they will pick up.
Talking about continuing the gains that Democrats made in 2006 and 2008 is irrational now- what we can all do is pick a few campaigns and invest a lot of our time and put our best efforts into limiting our losses.
What the DCCC does- cutting incumbents that can't win loose, might be a good strategy for private volunteers and donors as well.
Hello everyone, It has been a long long while since I have posted here on SwingStateproject and due to the lack of posting/sleep I figured it would be nice to write up a little summary of how the 2010 Senate races look about a year out and take a closer look at how things may look further down the road.
So far from what I can tell there are 5 Democratic seats that are vulnerable and another 6 Republican Seats that are vulnerable.
The 2010 saga continues as Roy Blunt confirms what we have only suspected for 2 weeks or so. And he even has a reason to be running, to be an irrelevant roadblock.
Of the 34 Senate seats up for re-election in 2010, nine can be considered safe for the time being. These seats are:
MD - Mikulski (Likely retirement with Congressman Van Hollen receiving the Dem nomination).
IL - Obama (Should he win the presidency, his appointed successor should be someone who can win with moderates (Congresswoman Bean). Should he not be elected president, Obama would be a safe bet for re-election.
AL - Shelby (Artur Davis may be interested in this race, but two things should come to mind: he represents a gerrymandered district and this is the Deep South).
IN - Bayh is simply popular at home.
ID - Crapo is representing a red state.
OR - Wyden is representing a really blue state.
NY - Schumer can raise money and win voters easily (The only possible sacrificial lamb, willing to go willingly, would be Peter King of Long Island, realizing that the Democrats will be redistricing him into more "immigrant friendly" territory come 2011 - one other Republican will also have the honor of being redistricted, due to New York projected to lose two congressional seats come 2010. The question is not if Democrats will win the State Senate this year, yet more likely how many seats will they actually win).
SC - Demint (I encourage anyone to visit upstate where churches are the size of shopping malls. This explains why Republicans still run the show here).
AK - Murkowski (Should the team of Young and Stevens lose, as expected, she will quickly join the reform side of the Alaskan Republican Party).
Now, the interesting match-ups (in no particular order):
NH - Gregg vs. Lynch (Gregg is too conservative for the state and Lynch is more popular. Since the Old Man of the Mountain collapsed in 2003 the New Hampshire Republican Party has collapsed as well. This is one of three states - Colorado and Virginia being the other - that have gone from solid red to purplish blue). Forecast: Dem Pickup
AR - Lincoln vs. Huckabee (Both are popular, yet Huckabee has a larger profile. Should Huckabee join the McCain team as VP and win, then Lincoln is safe. Should that not occur then this could be one of the more interesting races of 2010). Forecast: Toss Up
CA - Boxer vs. Issa (She's liberal. He's overly conservative. California is a split of both, however the populated areas are more liberal, thereby benefiting any Democrat. Schwarzenegger is a failed governor and Dreir would be forced out of the closet, therefore Issa would be the most likely to challenge Boxer. He has money, yet he also has a miserable voting record and may rightfully be considered one of the worst members of Congress). Forecast: Safe Dem
IA - Vilsack vs. King (Grassley may retire for two reasons: being in the minority and being in a party dominated by Southern radicals. Vilsack passed on running for president and King passed on running for Senate against Harkin. King realizes trouble is on the horizon. The state is expected to lose a congressional district in 2010 and all expect that King and Latham will find themselves battling eachother. Rather than battle a fellow Republican, King may decide to continue his anti-immigration battle cry on the statewide level. A certain loss indeed). Forecast: Dem Pickup (if Grassley retires)
OK - Coburn vs. Henry (The fact is that there are more Democrats than Republicans statewide, yet the state is bright red in choosing its presidential candidates. Should Henry challenge Coburn this will be a top tier race with Henry holding a slight advantage). Forecast: Dem Pickup
FL - Martinez vs. Sink (Martinez is in trouble. In fact, crossover non-Cuban Hispanic voters were partially responsible for his narrow victory last time. Democrats realize that success lies in the I-4 corridor (Daytona Beach-Orlando-Tampa area) where voters are more moderate than the conservative north - Jacksonville and Panhandle and the liberal south - Broward and Palm Beach. Alex Sink, the state CFO, and wife of Bill McBride, a former Democratic candidate for governor, fits the perfect profile). Forecast: Dem Pickup
VT - Douglas vs. Welch (Leahy may retire, yet only if Obama is elected. Don't expect Leahy to retire if McCain wins, he definately would want to be fully involved in fighting to keep a conservative from being appointed to the Supreme Court. Should Leahy retire a match up between Governor Douglas, a Repubocrat in a dark blue state vs. Congressman Welch would be an interesting fight). Forecast: Lean Dem
UT - Bishop vs. Matheson (Bennett will likely retire for reasons similar to Grassley. This is the most conservative state in the nation. However, Matheson has proven he can win in dark red territory and much of the state's growth is occurring in his district. Yet, this is Utah after all). Forecast: Lean Rep
HI - Lingle vs. Abercrombie (Inouye is likely to retire. Lingle is a popular Republican - yes they do exist in Hawaii, yet in small numbers. Abercrombie has represented most of Oahu in the House. There is no doubt that he wants to move to the Senate and he has waited around patiently, unlike former Congressman Case). Forecast: Toss Up
NC - Burr vs. McIntyre (The best way to describe Burr's tenure would be an utter failure and polls agree. McIntyre who represents a mainly rural agricultural district and retains a conservative voting record, would be the best challenge to Burr. Should this occur consider Burr endangered). Forecast: Dem Pickup
CO - Salazar vs. Tancredo (Anyone who thinks that "wingnut" Tancredo was retiring is mistaken. Tancredo is looking for higher office: Governor or Senate. His failed presidential bid was intended to raise his profile and his anti-immigration rhetoric, yet it was an utter disaster at best. Sec. of State Coffman is running for Tancredo's open seat and would be unlikely to change chairs after two years. The only other two Republicans that come to mind would be "wingnuts" Lamborn and Musgrave. Colorado's entire Republican delegation are "wingnuts" and would be serious underdogs to Salazar). Forecast: Safe Dem
OH - Voinovich vs. Ryan (Can also be considered the future vs. the past, old vs. young, old school vs. new school, etc. Ryan presents a serious challenge to Voinovich. Should the seats of Pryce, Chabot, Schmidt, and Regula fall into Democratic hands, then expect Voinovich to call an early retirement. Maybe Boehner, after a Republican coup d'etat, may want to try his hands at dispatching Ryan - highly unlikely, but a good way into early retirement after a terrible tenure as Republican leader). Forecast: Dem Pickup
WA - Murray vs. Reichert (Reichert is a moderate and can bring in moderate voters along with the conservative eastern part of the state. However, Murray will be in the majority party and be able to deliver an abundance of resources into the state, including into Walla Walla and Wenatchee. Conservative no longer). Forecast: Safe Dem
KY - Chandler vs. Davis (Bunning says he is running for re-election. The GOP will change his mind fairly quickly after the post-election losses of 2008. Chandler is popular and known statewide. He represents a conservative rural district. Davis represents a moderate to conservative suburban district. Rural vs. suburban in Kentucky. Rural wins). Forecast: Dem Pickup
AZ - Napolitano vs. Flake (If McCain wins she gets to choose his Republican successor. The weakest candidate would be Russell Pearce, his xenophobia and radical views would make him an easy defeat. Should McCain not win the presidency, expect him to resign, unlike Kerry. Even if he did not resign, a radical such as Pearce, would most certainly force him into a primary. McCain would not want to face a similar defeat as McGovern - two presidential defeats only to face further embarrasment in having your Senate seat taken. Flake is conservative, but is also one of the more respected members of Congress. While many would give the edge to Napolitano, this is a race that could be competitive once voters become familiar with Flake. Forecast: Lean Dem
CT - Shays vs. Blumenthal (Dodd is likely to retire. Blumenthal has always been considered a gubernatorial candidate, yet passed up every opportunity. Both understand that it is moderate independents and not liberal Democrats that determine statewide victors. Shays represents the cities of Stamford and Norwalk, both of which he, Rell, and Lieberman won. Blumenthal resides in Greenwich, yet him and Shays appear to have a friendly working relationship, therefore making a race against eachother unlikely. Republican contenders in place of Shays would be US Attorney Kevin O'Connor, a Bush appointee and someone who worked closely with Alberto Gonzales, or Lt. Gov. Fedele, a resident of Stamford). Forecast: Likely Dem
ND - Dorgan vs. Hoeven (Hoeven passed up an opportunity to challenge Conrad this year. He is popular statewide and would have been a formible challenge. Should he run against Dorgan this would be a closely watched race). Forecast: Toss Up
LA - Alexander vs. Melancon (Vitter, the candidate of family values, will be presented with three options: voluntary retirement, a challenging primary, or a general election defeat. Neither are a winning strategy, yet if Melancon is the Democratic nominee, the centrist Democrat would have broad appeal throughout the conservative areas of the state. Alexander, the former Democrat, would find it difficult to differentiate himself from the more challenging Melancon). Forecast: Dem Pickup
WI - Feingold vs. Ryan (Feingold is liberal. Ryan is conservative. Ryan is a rising star in the Republican Party, at least what is left of the party. Wisconsin is not necessarily a blue state and many are not as liberal as Feingold. Ryan would be a formible opponent, yet Feingold would be able to exploit his majority status. This is a race that could heat up in the end). Forecast: Likely Dem
GA - Isakson vs. Marshall (Isakson wanted to run for Governor, then saw the polls and decided not to. The same polls show that he is not necessarily a popular Senator. Congressman Marshall represents a Republican district and would be able to win over Republicans elsewhere throughout the state. Isakson could be in trouble, even in peachy Georgia). Forecast: Toss Up
KS - Sebelius vs. Tiahrt (Brownback has already announced that he's retiring. Sebelius may represent a red state, yet she is extremely popular, and has assisted the Republican Party with its ongoing implosion. Congressman Tiahrt or Moran could challenge Sebelius, yet both would be at a great disadvantage. Forecast: Dem Pickup
SD - Rounds vs. Herseth (Thune may run for Governor. Rounds and Herseth are both popular and would make this an extremely tight race. Should Thune pass up a run for governorship, then expect this seat to remain in Republican hands. Should it be a Rounds vs. Herseth match then a close race would be on the horizon). Forecast: Safe Rep/Toss Up
TX - Dewhurst vs. Lampson (Hutchinson is expected to run for Governor. If Hutchinson resigns early, then expect Lt. Gov. Dewhurst to be appointed to the seat, rather than a drawn out primary costing the Republican ambitions in retaining the governorship. Lampson, a conservative Democrat, would have cross-over appeal. A win in November would be a guarantee that he could win on the state level. Other Democrats with cross-over appeal who have potential would be Congressmen Chet Edwards, Jim Turner, or Martin Frost. All have substantial funds for any future race. Forecast: Likely Rep
PA - Rendell vs. Gerlach (Specter most likely will retire. If he does not retire, then expect it to be a Schwartz vs. Specter race, Rendell will not challenge Specter due to their close relationship. Should Specter retire then expect Rendell to be the top recruit on the Democratic side. Congressman Gerlach or Dent could challenge Rendell, yet both would be at a serious disadvantage. Former Republican strongholds, Montgomery and Bucks Counties, are now majority Democratic. A Montgomery County race, Schwartz vs. Gerlach, would be the most interesting race of all). Forecast: Dem Pickup
MO - Bond vs. Robin Carnahan (Missouri is a middle of the road state, ultra conservative in Springfield and liberal in Saint Louis. Sec. of State Robin Carnahan could put the family name to good use and continue the winning trend - her father was governor, mother was US Senator, and brother is a current congressman. Should she challenge Bond, then expect an extremely close race. Forecast: Toss Up
NV - Reid vs. Porter (Reid may be Majority Leader, yet his popularity at home is weak. However he is more popular than current Governor Gibbons, if that provides any consolation. Congressman Porter is facing a tight re-election this year and he is fully aware that Reid provided assistance in recruiting Titus as a strong challenger. Porter will be seeking revenge, win or lose. With the current ongoing Gibbons scandal expect the state GOP to take a little beating). Forecast: Lean Dem
There are three Portland-based, general circulation newspapers: The Oregonian, The Willamette Week, and the Portland Mercury*. The number of times they've all endorsed the same candidate for a major office recently can probably be counted on one hand (or less!), but when it comes to the Democratic nomination for Senate, they're in perfect harmony: they want the guy with the hook.
We covered The O's big Sunday endorsement of Steve; let's add in the others. First, Willamette Week, whose nod may certainly have been less of a surprise than that from the House of Stickel, but which comes on the heels of a joint endorsement interview Novick's critics--and even some supporters--mark as his low moment of the campaign. The ed board may or may not have liked Novick's answers on the peripheral questions of the race, but they liked Merkley's issue positions even less, making note of three separate areas of "concern."
In the end, the editors appear happily surprised to have Novick exceed their expectations to become a legitimate, solid candidate with the potential for greatness:
Let’s be clear. Back in January 2007, Novick was little more than a placeholder. Novick has a rapier wit, a winning affinity for sports references and an impressive behind-the-scenes résumé working for worthy causes. But Oregonians were waiting for another, more credible Democratic challenger to Smith, a telegenic senator who’s raised boatloads of cash and worked to style himself in the moderate image of past Republican icons such as Mark Hatfield, Bob Packwood and Tom McCall. We all thought that other person would come along.
We were hotly divided between the fun, speak-his-mind insurgent who calls to mind the late Sen. Paul Wellstone and the impassive Merkley, who calls to mind the widely respected Sen. Al Gore—the wooden version, before he became as steaming as the planet.
In the end, we rallied around Novick because we see a capacity for a refreshing independence and an unwavering willingness to tackle our toughest issues, like providing universal health care and ending the war in Iraq. We recognize, too, he could be a spectacular failure, a quotable firebrand for the left who is both alienating and alienated. Our hope is he commits himself to becoming the Senate’s best workhorse before shooting for the ranks of Sunday talk-show showhorse. Novick, please play nice.
{the Merc's endorsement, and even bigger swipe at Merkley, below}
Oregon Democrats have long coveted the seat of Sen. Gordon Smith, the only Republican currently holding statewide office. They consider him vulnerable because of the way he has supported the policies of an unpopular president while managing to rile many in his party. And in a year in which Democrats are expected to gain ground in Congress, they just may be right.
We think the candidate they should send to face Smith is, in some ways, the unlikeliest one of all: Steve Novick, an Ivy League lawyer who stands 4'-9" and has a hook instead of a left hand.
This choice is unorthodox not just because of Novick's remarkable personal characteristics and history, but because the Democratic Party establishment is supporting another solid candidate, Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley. Merkley launched his campaign after other prominent Oregon Democrats decided not to undertake the rigors and risks of a race against a well-heeled incumbent.
Senate Republicans 1. Virginia*** Former Governor Mark Warner v. Former Governor Jim Gilmore
Total Raised --- $6,300,000 v. $402,000
Cash On Hand - $4,380,000 v. $208,000
(Likely Democratic Pick-up)
2. New Mexico*** Representative Tom Udall v. Representative Steven Pearce
Total Raised --- $2,604,000 v. $1,395,000
Cash On Hand - $2,600,000 v. $854,000
(Lean Democratic Pick-up)
3. New Hampshire Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen v. Incumbent Senator John Sununu
Total Raised --- $2,566,000v. $4,143,000
Cash On Hand - $2,000,000 v. $4,300,000
(Lean Democratic Pick-up)
4. Colorado*** Representative Mark Udall v. Former Representative Bob Schaffer
Total Raised --- $3,751,000 v. $3,191,000
Cash On Hand - $3,606,000 v. $2,200,000
(Lean Democratic Pick-up)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
5. Alaska Mayor Mark Begich v. Incumbent Senator Ted Stevens
Total Raised --- $280,000 v. $2,071,000
Cash On Hand - $250,000 v. $1,300,000
(Toss Up)
6. Minnesota Al Franken v. Incumbent Senator Norm Coleman
Total Raised --- $9,359,000 v. $8,640,000
Cash On Hand - $3,500,000 v. $7,000,000
(Toss Up)
7. Oregon State Speaker Jeff Merkley v. Incumbent Senator Gordon Smith
Total Raised --- $1,371,000v. $4,274,000
Cash On Hand --- $474,000 v. $5,100,000
(Toss Up)
8. Maine Representative Tom Allen v. Incumbent Senator Susan Collins
Total Raised --- $3,656,000 v. $5,068,000
Cash On Hand - $2,700,000 v. $4,500,000
(Toss Up)
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9. North Carolina State Senator Kay Hagan v. Incumbent Senator Liddy Dole
Total Raised --- $562,000 v. $4,855,000
Cash On Hand - $515,000 v. $2,664,000
(Lean Republican Retention)(12/31/07 Fundraising Numbers)
10. Mississippi-B*** Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove v. Representative Roger Wicker
Total Raised --- $448,000 v. $3,000,000
Cash On Hand - $337,000 v. $2,750,000
(Lean Republican Retention)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
11. Oklahoma State Senator Andrew Rice v. Incumbent Senator James Inhofe
Total Raised --- $970,000 v. $3,168,000
Cash On Hand - $597,000 v. $2,221,000
(Likely Republican Retention)
12. Idaho*** Former Congressman Larry LaRocco v. Lieutenant Governor James Risch
Total Raised --- $555,000 v. $1,129,000
Cash On Hand - $253,000 v. $935,000
(Likely Republican Retention)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
13. Georgia State Representative Jim Martin v. Incumbent Senator Saxby Chambliss
Total Raised --- $346,000 v. $4,407,000
Cash On Hand - $333,000 v. $3,637,000
(Likely Republican Retention)
14. Kansas Former Congressman Jim Slattery v. Incumbent Senator Pat Roberts
Total Raised --- $289,000 v. $3,205,323
Cash On Hand - $286,000 v. $2,986,000
(Likely Republican Retention)
15. Nebraska*** Scott Kleeb v. Former Governor Mike Johanns
Total Raised --- $274,000 v. $2,018,000
Cash On Hand - $281,000 v. $1,330,000
(Likely Republican Retention)
16. Kentucky Bruce Lunsford v. Incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell
Total Raised --- $808,000 v. $7,908,000
Cash On Hand - $666,000 v. $7,741,000
(Likely Republican Retention)
Senate Democrats 1. Louisiana Incumbent Senator Mary Landrieu v. State Treasurer John Kennedy
Total Raised --- $5,447,000 v. $1,907,000
Cash On Hand - $4,564,000 v. $1,623,000
(Likely Democratic Retention)
(I figured this was big enough news to promote, and, since David Kowalski laid out the details, I saw no point in writing a separate post that repeated the same information. - promoted by The Caped Composer)
Anne Estabrook, a multi-millionaire developer and the frontrunner for the Republican nomination for the US Senate in New Jersey abruptly dropped out on Tuesday morning after suffering a mini stroke on Monday. Estabrook had already contributed $1.6 million towards the Senate race and was considered the heavy favorite for the Republican nomination.
Her departure leaves two active Republican candidates, inflammatory state senator Joe Pennachio and college professor/gadfly Murray Sabin (Sabrin?). There may be pressure from the state's GOP establishment to come up with a name opponent at this point. Just my own speculation but in relative order candidates might include former Governor Christie Todd Whittman, the state's US Attorney Chris Christie (good to see him sent packing), retiring US Rep Mike Ferguson, former Senate candidate Tom Keane, Jr. or even one of the south Jersey Reps like Chris Smith or Frank LoBiondo.
Christie has gone from prosecuting all politicians to picking only on Democrats to save his job from Karl Rove's threatened sacking. I'd love to see Lautenberg puncture his pompousity like a pus-filled pinata. If Jerseyans have poor opinions of their politicians, Chrisitie is a leading contributor. (So are some of the talk radio stations in the state and the vicious tone of the political blog at the Star Ledger. Republicans have no answers but in this state they are nasty, personal, and bullying.)
Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez has scheduled a press conference for tomorrow morning where he is expected to announce his candidacy for the U.S. Senate seat now held by the retiring Pete Domenici. Chavez would be the first big name Democrat to enter the race.
Good news? Bad news? This will be debated heavily between bloggers and Democrats, as noted in the article:
Chavez has had major problems with the large progressive wing of the Democratic Party. They have been banding behind Santa Fe developer Don Wiviott who has pledged $400,000 of his own cash for the race. Can Chavez heal the wounds and start unifying the party, or will more candidates get in and complicate the matter and snare the Mayor in a bloody battle?
