SurveyUSA (9/22-23, likely voters, 10/26-29/2007 in parens):
Tom Allen (D): 39 (38)
Susan Collins (R-inc): 55 (55)
Undecided: 6 (8)
(MoE: ±3.8%)
We've all been waiting for something... anything... to happen in this race, and all we're seeing is a whopping 1-point Allen bounce over the past 10 months. Hard to feel bubbly about this one.
UPDATE: Actually, wait a sec. As andgarden points out in the comments, we're seeing a classically messed-up youth sample in the crosstabs. Among 18-34 year-olds, Collins has a massive 64%-18% lead over Allen. Again, we're seeing another SUSA poll with a wildly overstated GOP youth vote. (Just check out the Presidential numbers, where John McNap has a 49-37 lead over Barack Obama among this age bracket, compared to 49-44 for Obama overall.) SUSA really needs to look into this issue.
VoteVets, which produced last cycle's amazing body armor ads, released this ad hitting Susan Collins for her obeisance to George Bush on Iraq:
Predictably, Collins's campaign flipped out, denouncing the ad as somehow unfair:
Spokesman Kevin Kelley said the ad is false, noting legislation Collins sponsored that shifts the costs of reconstruction projects to the Iraqis.
"The ad that is currently airing on Maine television stations ignores Senator Collins' efforts to change the mission in Iraq and to force the Iraqis to pay more of the costs of securing and rebuilding their own country," a press release from the Collins campaign stated.
Sorry, even if we graded this an "E" for effort, meekly trying (and failing) to apply a few band-aids to the mess she's created does not get Collins off the hook. Collins had a little more success, though, in browbeating Democrat Tom Allen to denounce this ad, too:
"Tom Allen is the only candidate to denounce false, negative tv and radio ads by third parties. He knows there is too much at stake for outsiders to disrupt the conversation he is having with Mainers on the important issues of energy, health care, the economy and Iraq," Andrews wrote in a release.
Jesus Christ. This ad is eminently reasonable - for Allen to attack it is just ridiculous. But taking orders from Susan Collins is far worse. When you let Republicans boss you around, you wind up looking pathetically weak. And if Tom Allen really thinks that going after a left-wing organization will inspire the right-wing groups currently blasting him over his support of the Employee Free Choice Act to back down, then he's sadly mistaken.
Last week we mentioned the $6 million DSCC ad buy in North Carolina, which is already huge, but not out of whack with high media costs in heavily-populated North Carolina. But today, Advertising Age is reporting that the DSCC upped the ante in some other states too:
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has also made more than $15 million in buys in North Carolina, New Mexico, Minnesota and Maine, with the buys in Maine and North Carolina exceeding $5 million each. A committee official declined to comment.
$5 million in Maine?!?!?!? Given how cheap a media market Maine is and that there are only about 1.3 million Mainers to reach, that goes well beyond the firepower of "moneybomb." Call it a "moneynuke," maybe. Also, by subtraction, that leaves $4 million to be split between New Mexico and Minnesota, which isn't peanuts either. (Given how well Tom Udall seems to have things in hand, hopefully most of that money will find its way to Minnesota.)
A new Rasmussen poll shows a static Senate race since last month (June 15 in parens):
Tom Allen (D): 42 (42) Susan Collins (R, inc): 49 (49) (MoE: ±4%)
These numbers are identical to last month's, and, when leaners are included, Collins leads by ten points, 53 to 43. That concerns me, and I certainly hope Tom Allen is running as many ads as possible tying Collins to the unpopular and mistaken war that she supported from the start. I know that the conventional wisdom is that voters in Maine only start paying attention to politics after Memorial Day. Last month, Allen's movement in the poll bore that out . . . but what does this month's stagnation mean?
In the last couple days, there have been several posts across the blogosphere citing what various candidates running for Congress have said on FISA and retroactive immunity for the telecoms. But so far, it's been all over the map. I'll try to corral all their statements into this diary, so you can see who the "good guys" are.
First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill. They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.
Follow me below the fold to see the dozens of Democratic challengers who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.
(This topic deserves more analysis-- as far as I'm concerned, it's the biggest news of the day . . . and of the week, so far! - promoted by The Caped Composer)
Just as we were starting to give up on the Pine Tree State, a new Rasmussen poll shows incumbent Republican Susan Collins' lead shrinking (5/14 in parens):
Tom Allen (D): 42 (42) Susan Collins (R, inc): 49 (52) (MoE: ±4%)
The poll found that Collins' favorability, while still high, has fallen from since last month, and her unfavorables have risen slightly. Allen's numbers, by contrast, have remained static. The most surprising finding here is the fact that Collins has a double-digit lead among men, but leads by only two points among women. Discuss.
This race may still be an uphill battle, but, let's just say it's akin to climbing Cadillac, more than Katahdin.
This is good stuff. Tom Allen is hanging Joe Lieberman around Susan Collins' neck:
Joe knows exactly what he's doing in supporting Collins: attempting to retain any shred of his own continued relevance by keeping the Democratic majority in the Senate as slim as possible in what is looking, once again, like a very tough cycle for GOP incumbents across the board.
And Allen knows exactly what he's doing in tying Collins to Joe: making sure that this "moderate" Republican owns the Bush-Cheney-Lieberman war that she's done nothing to oppose (see this NPR report on the Allen campaign this weekend), and that the Democratic Party stays strong and united against the Lieberman-GOP nexus. It's exactly the approach that Maine Dems hinted at when they "welcomed" news of Joe's endorsement of Collins back in April.
Rep. Tom Allen of Maine's 1st District has made it official: he's filed his papers to challenge Republican Senator Susan Collins. Check out his video message and his new website here.
From a press statement:
Portland, Maine---Maine Congressman Tom Allen today filed A Statement of Candidacy form with the Secretary of the Senate to become a candidate for the United States Senate in 2008. His campaign simultaneously launched a new website (http://www.tomallen.org) that includes a digital video statement from Congressman Allen about today's filing. In the statement, Allen says that he will conduct an announcement tour of the state when Congress adjourns for Memorial Day. He said he is looking forward to a substantive debate on the issues and that he believes voters will see a clear contrast between his priorities and record and those of the incumbent.
"Maine people tell me that they want our involvement in the Iraq War- the worst foreign policy mistake in our nation's history -to end," Congressman Allen says in the video announcement. "From the beginning, when President Bush rushed to invade Iraq, Susan Collins has supported his misguided policy. I fought to stop it. She voted for the Iraq War. I voted against it. Susan Collins continues to vote with the Republicans against a timetable to end the War in Iraq. I voted for a responsible change of course to bring our troops safely home."
Republicans will likely point to Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe's overwhelming victory last year in a Democratic wave year, but, simply put: Collins is no Snowe, and Allen is certainly no Jean Hay Bright. On top of that, Snowe's continued capitulation to the out-of-control Republican leadership in the U.S. Senate is not going to win her any accolades in her home state, especially as more and more local media outlets are turning against the Bush/Collins position on Iraq.
As we look at the 2008 Senate map, and where we have pick-up opportunities, there are some obvious choices for who would be our best candidate, and there are some not so obvious choices.
From Sebelius in Kansas to Allen in Maine to Easley in North Carolina to a number of choices in New Hampshire to fewer choices in Idaho, there is much to discuss.
Who is your ideal 2008 Senate candidate? Who would you like to see run?
