AR-Sen: Runoffs Look Possible, But Dems in Poor Shape for General

DavidNYC — Mon, 10 May 2010 14:17:00 GMT

Mason-Dixon (5/3-5, likely voters, 1/18-20 in parens):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 44 (52)
Bill Halter (D): 32 (34)
D.C. Morrison (D): 7 (n/a)
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±5%)
John Boozman (R): 48
Jim Holt (R): 17
Gilbert Baker (R): 11
Kim Hendren (R): 5
Conrad Reynolds (R): 2
Curtis Coleman (R): 1
Other: 1
Undecided: 15
(MoE: ±5%)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 35
John Boozman (R): 52
Undecided: 13
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 39 (39)
Gilbert Baker (R): 47 (43)
Undecided: 14 (18)
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40 (43)
Jim Holt (R): 45 (37)
Undecided: 15 (20)
Bill Halter (D): 32
John Boozman (R): 56
Undecided: 12
Bill Halter (D): 34
Gilbert Baker (R): 42
Undecided: 24
Bill Halter (D): 36
Jim Holt (R): 42
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±4%)

Remember, in Arkansas, if one candidate fails to get 50% on May 18, then we'll have a run-off on June 8th. The entry of weirdo Paulist D.C. Morrison suggests that this is a possibility on the Dem side, and the fractured GOP field might also yield a run-off, unless John Boozman can seal the deal soon - which he may be close to doing. In light of this, run-off hopeful Gilbert Baker has released his own numbers (PDF) from The Political Firm showing him in second place with 22% (with Boozman at 44 and Jim Holt! in third with just 8). Research 2000 will have a new survey out this week, and I'm sure they won't be alone.

AR-01, AR-02, AR-03: Primary Polls

DavidNYC — Fri, 09 Apr 2010 15:02:10 GMT

Talk Business, a multi-format Arkansas newsmagazine, is conducting a whole bunch of polling on the state's congressional primaries. They are using an outfit I'm not familiar with, with the memorable name of "The Political Firm." They look to be a Republican pollster, but I don't know if they have any skin in the game (or if Talk Business has any axe to grind).

In any event, Talk Business says all the polls were taken April 6-7th, were of registered voters (sort of an unusual choice, given that the primary is on May 18th), and are unweighted. TPF says it uses IVR (aka robopolls). Talk Business also promises two more rounds of polling before the primary.

AR-01 (D):

Tim Wooldridge: 18
David Cook: 11
Steve Bryles: 9
Chad Causey: 9
Ben Ponder: 5
Terry Green: 1
Undecided: 47
(MoE: ±4.5%)

AR-02 (D):

Joyce Elliott: 21
Robbie Wills: 16
Patrick Kennedy: 11
David Boling: 7
John Adams: 4
Undecided: 41
(MoE: ±4.6%)

AR-02 (R):

Tim Griffin: 20
Scott Wallace: 20
Undecided: 60
(MoE: ±3.6%)

AR-03 (R):

Steve Womack: 21
Cecile Bledsoe: 17
Gunner DeLay: 16
Mike Moore: 8
Bernie Skoch: 5
Steve Lowry: 4
Doug Matayo: 2
Kurt Maddox: 1
Undecided: 27
(MoE: ±4%)

Swing State Project - The Political Firm

AR-Sen: Runoffs Look Possible, But Dems in Poor Shape for General

AR-01, AR-02, AR-03: Primary Polls