• CA-Sen: Politics Magazine takes a look at how the blowback from the launch of iCarly Fiorina's new website continues from all ends of the political spectrum, including a nice dig from SSP's own Ben Schaffer. As California's right-wingers sputter, there were also rumors circulating at the state's recent Republican convention that radio talk-show host Larry Elder -- the conservatives' preferred candidate, and someone who expressed interest in the race -- got boxed out by the NRSC, who told him not to run.
• IN-Sen: 33-year-old state Sen. Marlin Stutzman launched his long-shot bid against Evan Bayh with some help from Rep. Mark Souder, who introduced Stutzman at his kickoff rally. The race already has some fourth-tier figures in it: businessmen Richard Behney and Don Bates. Grant County Commissioner Mark Bardsley, former state Rep. Dan Dumezich, and self-funding popcorn magnate Will Weaver are also considering the race.
• NH-Sen: Kelly Ayotte is taking this whole not-saying-anything-about-her-positions thing to an illogical extreme, refusing to say for whom she voted for Governor in 2006 and 2008. Primary opponents Ovide Lamontagne and Sean Mahoney were quick to announce that they voted for Jim Coburn and Joe Kenney -- i.e. the guys who ran against Ayotte's ex-boss, Democratic Gov. John Lynch.
• NY-Sen-B: Ed Cox, having secured his role as New York state GOP chair despite a push from Rudy Giuliani to install one of his own lieutenants in the role, is now trying to make nice with Giuliani, encouraging him to run for the Senate seat currently held by Kirsten Gillibrand instead of for Governor. Giuliani hasn't been returning Cox's calls, and insists via spokespersons that it's Governor or nothing.
• AZ-01: Former state Senate majority leader Rusty Bowers has filed to form an exploratory committee to run against freshman Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick in the mostly-rural 1st. He's been out of the legislature since 2001 and has been a lobbyist for the Arizona Rock Products Association since then.
• IL-07: Rep. Danny Davis, who previously seemed poised to bail out of his west Chicago seat and run for Cook County Board President, now seems to be dialing that back. Davis says he has the signatures collected to run for Board President "should [he] choose to do so." He may be having some second thoughts now that he has a key seat on Ways and Means and also because the expected field-clearing for him in the Board race didn't happen. With Illinois's super-early February primary, he has until mid-November to make up his mind. Alderwoman Sharon Dixon says she's running in the primary in the 7th regardless of what Davis does, though; however, some other likely contenders, like state Rep. LaShawn Ford and state Sen. Rickey Hendon are in a holding pattern to see what Davis does.
• IL-14: The field to take on Rep. Bill Foster in the Chicago suburbs just keeps growing, with the addition of GOP state Sen. Randy Hultgren. His best-known opponent in the now five-way primary is lawyer Ethan Hastert.
• MI-11: Natalie Mosher is a fundraising consultant who's the only person with a hat in the ring for the Dems to go up against Rep. Thad McCotter. She's telling supporters via e-mail that she's "very close" to being named to the DCCC's Red to Blue program -- although that seems to be news to the DCCC, who say that R2B decisions won't be made for some time and they are still talking to other possible candidates.
• NV-03: Yesterday we reported that former state Sen. Joe Heck was content to stay in the GOP gubernatorial primary, rather than switching over to the NV-03 slot vacated by John Guedry's withdrawal. However, since then, Heck has signaled more interest, saying he hasn't ruled it out and is discussing it with his family. Heck could turn out to be a step up from the inexperienced Guedry (remember that Rep. Dina Titus was a replacement candidate as well in 2008, who turned out in the end to be a better bet).
• NY-13: Here's a strange rumor: disgraced ex-Rep. Vito Fossella has been making public rounds, leading to speculation that he's considering a comeback (although there's no sense whether he'd try again for the 13th, or elsewhere).
• NY-23: The Watertown Daily Times has some juicy dirt on Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman, who apparently pledged his support to GOP candidate Dede Scozzafava shortly after he was passed over by the party in favor of her... and then shortly thereafter reached out to the Conservatives and got their nod. His defense is that he didn't know just how "liberal" Scozzafava really was, despite that having been a main bone of contention even before her selection.
• NYC: With the primary runoff elections set for tonight, SurveyUSA has a final poll of the two races at issue: Public Advocate and Comptroller. For Public Advocate, city councilor Bill DeBlasio leads ex-PA Mark Green 49-42 (although DeBlasio narrowly won the primary, Green led every poll prior to it). And for Comptroller, Eric John Liu leads David Yassky 48-40 (both are city councilors). (Discussion of tonight's main event is underway in Pan's diary.) Meanwhile, it looks like Barack Obama won't be expending any political capital on the New York mayor's race, unless it becomes clear William Thompson is closing the gap on Michael Bloomberg.
• NY-St. Sen.: The Erie County, NY DA's office is the latest to join a bipartisan chorus calling for an investigation into the shady campaign finance practices of political consultant Steve Pigeon. As you may recall, Pigeon was the mastermind behind billionaire Tom Golisano's attempted coup in the New York State Senate earlier this year. Pigeon is also buddy-buddy with Republican-turned-Dem Sen. Arlen Specter, and gets a $150,000 sinecure (completely above-board, I'm sure) as counsel to now-legendary scumbag Pedro Espada, Jr. (D)
• PA-St. Sen.: One other race to keep an eye on tonight, in addition to the NYC races: a state Senate election in the Philly suburbs. It's a seat vacated by a Republican (who left to take a job with the Chamber of Commerce); Republican state Rep. Bob Mensch is considered to have the edge to hold the seat over Lansdale councilor Anne Scheuring (picked after better-known Dems took a pass), although Dems have spent considerably on the race. The district (the 24th) takes a bite out of the corners of four counties that went convincingly for Obama (Bucks, Montgomery, Lehigh, and Northampton) but it's exurban turf and has a Republican registration advantage -- which is exactly the kind of district that has bedeviled PA Dems at the legislative level but that the Dems need to pick up if they're ever going to take over the state Senate. The GOP currently holds a 29-20 edge, plus this one vacancy.
• AR-Sen: Here's a tea leaf that state Sen. Gilbert Baker may be interested after all in getting into the Senate race: he issued a press release today going after Democratic health care reform and Blanche Lincoln in particular. He'd probably be the favorite to win the GOP nomination if he got in, if only by virtue of the rest of the field being gaffe-prone wackos.
• CT-Sen: Best wishes to Chris Dodd, who has been diagnosed with early-stage prostate cancer and will undergo surgery over the August recess. He said he'll be back at work after several weeks of recuperation at home, and that he still plans to run for re-election in 2010.
• IL-Sen: Add one more GOP Twitter fail to the increasingly long-list. Rep. Mark Kirk, who is also a Naval Reservist, tweeted his location (the National Military Command Center) while on duty. The DoD is now investigating, as it's a problem on two fronts: one, the prohibition against using the media to give away your position, and two, the prohibition against, while on military service, updating a website established prior to the beginning of service. Complicating the legal question even further: it may have been a staffer tweeting on Kirk's behalf. Because, y'know, it's so hard to think up 140 characters of content on your own.
• NY-Sen-B: The confusion over the Carolyn Maloney campaign has reached epic proportions. Yesterday, CQ reported that Maloney had no fixed timeline for officially getting into the Senate primary, but that early August seemed likely. But today, Politico's Glenn Thrush is reporting that Maloney is "leaning heavily against" making the race at all, according to several prominent Dems.
• ND-Sen: The NRSC is flogging a new internal poll which claims Gov. John Hoeven has a 53-36 lead over Sen. Byron Dorgan. Both men are very popular, with Hoeven with an 86% approval and Dorgan with a 69% approval. A public poll from R2K in February found the numbers almost exactly reversed, with Dorgan beating Hoeven 57-35... but Hoeven hasn't taken any public steps to get into the race, so we may never find out who's right.
• AK-Gov: Local pollster Hays Research looked at in-state approvals for Alaska's incoming and outgoing governors, and found Sarah Palin leaving in net negative territory: 47/48. Sean Parnell looks bulletproof for the moment, at 67/8, but, having been in office for less than a week, hasn't had the chance to screw anything up yet.
• TX-Gov: A bit more egg on the Kay Bailey Hutchison campaign's face today, as the Austin American-Statesman found that her website had over 2,200 hidden phrases on it designed to steer traffic, including "rick perry gay." (This wasn't mere meta-tagging, but blind keywords invisibly put into the site's code, something of a search engine-optimization no-no.) A spokesperson said they'd remove "rick perry gay," although it sounds like the other 2,199 phrases stay.
• KS-04: Businessman Jim Anderson got into the overflowing GOP field in KS-04 to replace retiring Rep. Todd Tiahrt. He seems like he might get a little lost in the shuffle, in a field that already includes local GOP heavyweights RNC committeman Mike Pompeo and state Sen. Dick Kelsey, along with state Sen. Jean Schodorf, who recently began exploring the race.
• MO-04: Ike Skelton, who's held down the fort for Dems in dark-red central Missouri since time immemorial, has drawn a more serious opponent than usual (not hard, since his usual opponents are nobodies or no one at all). Vicky Hartzler is a former state Rep. who has also written a book called "Running God's Way," apparently a how-to guide to campaigning for Christian right candidates. CQ also mentions several other still-in-office legislators who could also take on the 77-year-old Skelton (especially if he hears the siren song of retirement): state Rep. Tom Self and state Sen. Bill Stouffer.
• DCCC: The DCCC has responded with its own ad offensive on the health care front, a day after the RNC targeted 60 districts. The DCCC's radio buy and robo-call package is a bit more targeted, focusing on 8 GOPers (not coincidentally, maybe their 8 most vulnerable incumbents running in 2010): Michele Bachmann, Joseph Cao, Charlie Dent, Dan Lungren, Thad McCotter, Erik Paulsen, Dave Reichert, and Pat Tiberi.
• Where Are They Now?: Former GOP Rep. Anne Northup found her way into the Obama administration, as a commissioner on the Consumer Product Safety Commission. This initially seems very odd -- she already lost KY-03, so there's no sense in appointing her to facilitate a Dem pickup -- but it's because the Senate GOP leader has a say in picking a Republican for one of the five commissioners, and Mitch McConnell opted to give the job to his long-time protege, who, having lost three races in a row, is probably finished with electoral politics.
• PA-Sen: Gov. Ed Rendell confirmed in his usual inimitable style that he's backing new-found Dem Arlen Specter in 2010. He did go out of his way to praise Rep. Joe Sestak but to encourage him to remain in the House, warning Sestak that he would "get killed" (metaphorically, I'd assume) and that "we will lose a terrific Congressman and when he loses to Arlen, he fades into political obscurity." Sestak did pick up his first big-name endorsement, though: MontCo Commissioner and former Rep. Joe Hoeffel, who lost to Specter in the 2004 general election.
• CT-Sen: Here's an inauspicious start to Merrick Alpert's primary challenge to Chris Dodd: the Democratic party committee in his home town, Groton, voted a resolution of support for Dodd. It also issued a pretty transparent slap at Alpert, deploring any hypothetical primary challenger's use of "echoing right wing talking points or by utilizing the conservative media echo chamber to slander Dodd." (Alpert's already done that.)
• FL-Sen: State Sen. Dan Gelber made it official (via Facebook) that he's dropping out of the Senate race, giving Rep. Kendrick Meek a clearer path. He's now considering the AG race against a crowded field including fellow state Sen. Dave Aronberg, or, more interestingly, joining the ticket as Alex Sink's Lt. Gov. candidate.
• MN-Sen: It was Minnesota Supreme Court hearing day in The Senate Race That Won't Die. Five of the court's justices heard an hour of oral arguments. Rick Hasen's interpretation of how the individual justices responded to the lawyers' arguments suggests a quick and possibly unanimous decision in favor of Franken.
• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo did it again -- he publicly denied that he'll be running for Governor and maintained that he "plans" to run again for AG. (He did concede that primaries can be productive for the party.) While the idea of Cuomo giving up an almost-free shot at the governor's mansion seems ludicrous, maybe there's a kernel of truth to Kirsten Gillibrand's cryptic comments from last week that there would be no primary; at some point, if Cuomo says it enough times, we have to start taking him seriously.
• AL-Gov: Hangin' judge Roy Moore made it official this morning; he's running for Alabama governor. He joins four others in the hunt for the GOP nod.
• TN-Gov: Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey officially launched his gubernatorial campaign at midnight this morning (to kick off the third quarter of fundraising). He seems a bit overshadowed by Knoxville mayor Bill Haslam, Rep. Zach Wamp, and Shelby Co. DA Bill Gibbons, but has a solid base of support of northeast Tennessee.
• LA-03: Republicans seem to be making a full-court press on newly R+12 LA-03, even though Rep. Charlie Melancon (who didn't even have an opponent in 2008) seems likelier to remain in the seat than run for Senate. The NRCC has been courting state Rep. Nickie Monica, who has obliged by offering some public criticisms of Melancon. Ascension Parish sheriff Jeff Wiley was also on the wish list, but has taken himself out of contention.
• PA-11: Nobody's taking the heat off Rep. Paul Kanjorski in the 12th. First came news that Lackawanna Co. Commissioner Corey O'Brien and Scranton mayor Chris Doherty were interested in primary challenges; now it sounds like Hazleton mayor Lou Barletta, who came within 3% of Kanjorski in 2008, may be back for a third try. Barletta was seemingly considering the Lt. Gov. slot in 2010, but assuming AG Tom Corbett wins the gubernatorial nomination that job may go to someone from the Philly suburbs for purposes of ticket-balancing.
• DCCC: The DCCC launched an ad blitz against six vulnerable House Republicans today, hitting them with radio ads and robocalls for voting against the stimulus package by focusing on specific shovel-ready projects in each district. Targets are Don Young (AK-AL), Brian Bilbray (CA-50), Tom Rooney (FL-16), Thad McCotter (MI-11), Peter King (NY-03), and Charlie Dent (PA-15).
• Demographics: A new Gallup poll finds that only 11% of Republicans are Hispanics, African-Americans, or other non-whites. Considering that we're a few decades away from a country where whites no longer hold the majority, The Math seems to indicate a Republican Party that doesn't dramatically change its message is on the brink of permanent irrelevance.
Lately there has been a lot of Debate over the number of Democratic Congressional Districts that Democrats could gerrymander out of the state of Michigan if they had complete control (right now they hold the Governorship and State House. They stand a good chance at taking control of the State Senate while the Governor's race is a tossup). A few people, namely IHateBush, have said that it is possible to succesfully draw a map that would yield 12 Democratic seats and only 2 Republican seats. I've been trying for several weeks to draw a 12-2 map, meanwhile protecting endangered incumbents (specifically Schauer) and I've determined that a 12-2 map would be far overeaching and in a neutral or Republican leaning year might end up 9-5 or worse. I think the best Michigan Democrats could do is create 11 safe or Democrat leaning districts and 3 strongly Republican districts. I've drawn a map that I think does just that, although I still am not entirely confident that we could hold both of my "Thumb" districts in a Republican year. But without further ado, here's my map.
• PA-Sen: Well, something finally went right for Arlen Specter. After Specter got condemned to the basement on all his committees on Tuesday night, Majority whip Dick Durbin doled out a little charity this morning by giving up his own chair (Judiciary Subcommittee on Crime and Drugs) and handing it over to Specter (apparently without Pat Leahy's say-so). I'm wondering what Specter had to do behind the scenes to smooth things over; if the rumors flying that Specter is poised to re-flip-flop back to supporting EFCA are true, that's probably the answer.
• NY-Sen-B: Rep. Carolyn McCarthy is still making noises about a primary challenge to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, but with her frequent caveats about stepping aside if someone younger takes on the challenge, it seems like she's doing it more to yank Gillibrand's chain on gun control issues. Gillibrand has been a reliable vote in favor of gun controls since entering the Senate, going so far as to co-sponsor the current bill to close the gun-show loophole. McCarthy confesses to being "very happy about it. I just want her to stay there."
• NH-Sen: Judd Gregg tells CQ that wherever he goes, he's bombarded by Republicans begging him to run for another term in the Senate. He says he'll listen to their entreaties, but he's "comfortable with where" he is.
• AK-Gov: Governors in general are having a rough go of it these days, and now even the once-mighty Sarah Palin is suffering, falling to a mundane 54/41 favorable rating according to Hays Research. Senator Lisa Murkowski, by comparison, is still at 76/18.
• OK-Gov: Ex-Rep. J.C. Watts is still publicly undecided about the governor's race, and kicking the can down the road on a formal decision. Reading between the lines of his statement, it sounds like he's having some trouble fundraising, saying "You don't take on something like this unless you know you will have the resources to do it."
• CO-04: The GOP got the candidate it wanted, to go up against freshman Rep. Betsy Markey in this now R+6 district. State House minority whip Cory Gardner, who represents the vast emptiness of eastern Colorado, announced that he'll be running. Univ. of Colorado regent Tom Lucero is already in the hunt for the GOP nod.
• MN-06: One day after former Independence Party Lt. Gov. candidate Maureen Reed said she'll be a Dem candidate in 2010, the 2008 candidate, Elwyn Tinklenberg, confirmed he'll be running again, against one-woman gaffe machine Michele Bachmann.
• CA-47: GOP Assemblyman Van Tran made it official, setting up his exploratory committee for an uphill bid against Rep. Loretta Sanchez in this D+4 Latino-majority district in the heart of the O.C. (Discussion underway in Gus Ayer's diary.)
• ID-01: Idaho state Treasurer Don Crane spent the last week glad-handing GOP leaders and fundraisers in Washington, DC, fueling speculation that he's ready to challenge frosh Democratic Rep. Walt Minnick next year. Would his candidacy dampen the spirits of ex-Rep. Bill "Brain Fade" Sali, who is currently mulling a rematch? (J)
• GA-09: When you have an R+28 district, the only question about an open seat is what variety of wingnut you're going to get next. Former state Senator Bill Stephens (who lost the SoS primary to Karen Handel in 2006) announced he'll run to succeed Rep. Nathan Deal, retiring to run for governor. Former state Transportation Board chair Mike Evans is already seek the GOP nom.
• IL-11: The GOP has lined up Air Force Captain Adam Kinzinger to run against freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson in the Chicago suburbs. His exploratory committee is open, but he's currently serving in Iraq and won't be able to make a formal announcement until summer.
• MI-11: We've got somebody willing to step up against Bad Thad McCotter in this Dem-trending seat in the economically hard-hit Detroit suburbs: fundraising consultant Natalie Mosher. The DCCC sounds like it's going to keep looking for someone else, but if that fails, bear in mind that McCotter barely won in 2008 against a different Dem nobody.
• GA-12: When you're running for office, it's important to sell yourself... but not oversell yourself. Surgeon and Iraq vet Wayne Mosely, who's running against Rep. John Barrow in the D+1 rural Georgia district, recently tweeted that the NRCC rated his race as one of the top 3 in the nation! Uh, no, there's no ranking system, responded the NRCC, although they did concede that they were "very excited" about Mosely's candidacy.
• NY-20: Well, we know Scott Murphy can count on getting at least one vote out of the huge pile of absentee ballots in the deadlocked NY-20 election: the ballot of the woman he's seeking to replace, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, is one of them.
• NY-29: In an example of political chaos theory at work, the NY-20 election may wind up protecting Rep. Eric Massa several seats over. If Jim Tedisco wins, he's out of his current job as Assembly Minority Leader, and even if he loses, there have been rumblings to replace him anyway. His replacement as Minority Leader would likely be Brian Kolb, who, if he took the position, would probably want to focus on that and no longer be the top GOP pick to take on Eric Massa in NY-29. (Other potential GOP candidates in NY-29 include Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks and state senators Cathy Young and George Winner.)
• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter is already defending his right flank with ads attacking ex-Rep. Pat Toomey, in preparation for the 2010 primary. Specter's ad sounds a bit, um, Democratic, attacking Toomey for favoring deregulation, wanting to privatize Social Security, and for the unforgivable sin of having traded CDSs when he was working on Wall Street.
• MN-Sen: The next step in the MN-Sen saga has national implications: governor Tim Pawlenty has to decide, once the Minnesota Supreme Court rules, whether to go ahead and sign the certificate declaring Al Franken the winner (and, y'know, follow the rule of law)... or whether to continue to obstruct Franken in order not to alienate the rabid Republican base he'll need in 2012 if he's going to have any hope in the presidential primary.
• OH-Sen: I know I wouldn't buy a used car from Rob Portman, but he finally has some competition in the GOP primary, and it's a guy a lot of people apparently have bought used cars from. Cleveland-area car dealer Tom Ganley has also entered the race (although he shouldn't be more than a speed bump for the heavily-funded Portman).
• AK-AL: Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell is "considering" another primary run at Rep. Don Young. One negative for Parnell is that, this time, he'd have to give up his LG slot for a 2010 run. But there's also the possibility that the federal investigation into Young may actually yield something in the next few years.
• DCCC: The DCCC launched a new radio spot in the districts of six GOP representatives in Democratic-leaning seats, attacking them for voting against the middle-class tax cuts contained in the stimulus package. The targets are Mike Castle (DE-AL), Ken Calvert (CA-44), Bill Young (FL-10), Thad McCotter (MI-11), Charlie Dent (PA-15), and Mike McCaul (TX-10).
• LA-02: The Anh Cao Watch continues! GOP leading lights John McCain and Rep. Paul Ryan (WI-01) were recently seen jawing with Cao, who hasn't yet decided how he'll vote on the Democrats' budget resolution. Would he really defect? And would it even matter? (D)
• Census: The new pick for Census Director has been announced, and if the squealing emitting from Patrick McHenry is any indication, it's a good pick. It's Robert Groves, a Univ. of Michigan professor who was the Census's associate director for statistical design in the early 90s. Groves is a proponent of statistical sampling, which is the main flashpoint in debate over the census. Commerce Sec. Gary Locke has indicated that sampling won't be used for redistricting purposes, but will be used for increased accuracy (for purposes of allocating federal funds, for instance).
I know redistricting diaries are a dime a dozen these days, but I'm going to do one that has never been done before: Michigan (assuming full Democratic control of the process). Nathaniel90 already drew a split control compromise map found here: http://www.swingstateproject.c...
Michigan will be losing a seat in 2012, going from 15 to 14. I think the chances of full Democratic control is about 50-50 or maybe slightly better. It looks like we have a very good shot at taking back control of the State Senate, while the Governors race is still pretty much up in the air, with presumptive nominee John Cherry lagging in the most recent poll. But this far out, no one can predict this one yet.
By this map Democrats would presumably hold a 9-5 advantage in Representation. They currently hold a 8-7 Advantage. In 2002, when Republicans drew the map, they (Rs) held a 9-6 advantage. My map protects freshmen Gary Peters and Mark Schauer, while throwing Dave Camp and Mike Rogers into a district together. It also draws a much more Democratic district for Thaddeus McCotter (or his Democratic successor), presumably eliminating him if he isn't already gone by 2012.
My map was drawn on microsoft paint, and some of the more detailed borders aren't exact. Also my computer has some kind of problem with pixelation or something, so it may appear a little blurry. Without further ado, here's my map with district profiles down below the flip.
• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo made statements in a speech at Schenectady County Community College on Tuesday to the effect that his "only plan is to run for re-election as attorney general," and that he believes David Paterson will be re-elected as governor. I wouldn't be prone to believe him (and it seems like nobody else does either; only The Hill has taken any notice of this comment), given his poll numbers and the fundraising groundwork he's laid. It just seems weird; he's well past the point where he needs to be coy about his plans.
• NY-20: About that recent DNC ad touting Obama's endorsement of Scott Murphy... while the existence of the ad itself has been gobbling up a good deal of headlines, it appears that it won't actually be seen by a lot of eyeballs in-district. The DNC's independent expenditure filing with the FEC indicates that they're only putting up $10,000 for the ad buy. (J)
• CA-10: Departing Rep. Ellen Tauscher has already endorsed state senator Mark DeSaulnier to take her place. Apparently she had intended to wait until he formally announced his candidacy, but the internal poll from yesterday from assemblywoman Joan Buchanan showing her in the lead may have forced Tauscher's hand.
• UT-Sen: The knives are still out for Bob Bennett, but it's looking like someone higher up the totem pole than former Juab County DA David Leavitt may jump into the primary: Attorney General Mark Shurtleff is also "considering" it. Ultra-conservatives sense an opening because of Bennett's pro-bailout vote, and also because of Utah's unique nominating system. A candidate who consolidates activist support and breaks 60% at the state convention outright wins, and can avoid the primary altogether.
• KS-Sen: Here's another example of how Oklahoma senator Tom Coburn likes to keep us guessing. Not only is he wading into the GOP senate primary in his neighboring state, but he's endorsing Rep. Jerry Moran, who passes for a moderate by Kansas standards, over Rep. Todd Tiahrt, from the religious right corner of the party.
• MI-11: Back to the drawing board? Democratic state Sen. Glenn Anderson, who has been the target of a draft effort to encourage him to take on GOP weirdo Thaddeus McCotter, says that he'll probably run for re-election instead. (J)
• PA-12: Bill Russell, who held Jack Murtha to 58% in 2008, is back for another try in 2010. No word if he'll use BMW Direct for his fundraising efforts again.
MI-11 is positioned to be one of the Dems' top pickup possibilities in 2010; it's a district that Obama won 54-45, where Bad Thad McCotter squeaked past a no-name challenger last year, and where McCotter's anti-stimulus vote is particularly jarring in one of the most economically hard-hit districts in the country. But we have to have the right candidate to do it, and the Dems' top recruit, state House speaker Andy Dillon, just said no:
House Speaker Andy Dillon (D-Redford Twp.), in Washington D.C. to push for more federal loan money for the Big Three automaker, confirmed today he was approached in the nation's capital to run in the 11th Congressional District in 2010, but he "respectfully declined."
Dillon is prevented by term limits from another go-round in the state House, so it's not as if he has to fear giving up his current seat for a 50-50 shot against McCotter. It might be that he has his eye on something else (possibly the governor's race, where the most prominent Dem interested so far is Lt. Gov. John Cherry, who may suffer from his ties to unpopular current Gov. Jennifer Granholm).
OK, the title's a little hyperbolic: the robots in question are only auto-dialers, not cyborgs with lasers. Anyone who's tried to eat a quiet dinner in a swing state knows just how unstoppable they are, though. At any rate, the DCCC is unleashing the robot army against 12 of the most vulnerable House Republicans, and they're engaged in a nice bit of jujitsu that might sow some doubts with conservative voters: going after the GOP for not voting for their precious tax cuts, and for not voting according to the wishes of their overlords at the Chamber of Commerce.
Did you know Congressman Thad McCotter voted against President Obama's economic recovery plan, endorsed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce? McCotter's empty rhetoric can't hide that he voted to raise the AMT tax on 22 million middle class Americans and against the largest tax cut in history.
McCotter (who's ranked #5 on our Vulnerability Index) may be the marquee target here. Today's New York Times has a piece on how McCotter, a junior member of leadership who represents a particularly economically-hard-hit district in Detroit's middle-class suburbs (and one that Obama won 54-45), is getting an earful from constituents. Constituents, of course, who might specifically benefit from provisions in the stimulus, such as incentives for car buyers and federal purchasing of new car fleets. (The NYT article also includes quotes from Michigan House Speaker Andy Dillon, who may be a top-tier 2010 opponent in this usually neglected seat, although he may also be eyeing the governor's race.)
Here's the full target list:
Representative Judy Biggert (IL-13)
Representative Ken Calvert (CA-44)
Representative Michael Castle (DE-AL)
Representative Charlie Dent (PA-15)
Representative Jim Gerlach (PA-06)
Representative Mark Kirk (IL-10)
Representative Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO-09)
Representative Dan Lungren (CA-03)
Representative Thad McCotter (MI-11)
Representative Adam Putnam (FL-12)
Representative Dave Reichert (WA-08)
Representative Pete Sessions (TX-32)
While there are some unsurprising choices here (Reichert, Gerlach, Kirk, Dent), there are also some guys who held on by dangerously close margins in red districts (Luetkemeyer, Calvert, Lungren), and a few old-timers (Castle, Biggert) in blue districts who might need some encouragement to explore retirement. There are also a few current or former leadership members here, as is often the case in these kinds of targeted robocalls, but there's some long-term thinking here, too: Putnam will be retiring, so it's time to start priming FL-12 voters for an open seat race in 2010, while Sessions' district is still red but undergoing a rapid yet under-the-radar demographics-driven bluening (McCain won TX-32 only 53-46).
