The hardest thing for me to remember when making GOP friendly gerrymanders is that a 50% John MctCain district isn't a toss-up but a likely R district, similar in theory to a 60% Obama District. 5 points more friendly to the gop then the nation as an average implies that, but it is somewhat tricky for me, at least, to wrap my mind around it. However, that was my goal when I started North Carolina: create as many districts that went GOP in 08 as possible. After getting an 11-2 in a state that went for Obama, i figured a 36-0 in Texas was possible. and it was. One district voted for Obama by less than 1000 votes, so I'm going to count it. A 59% Obama district would be okay for most of us here... Without further ado, MAPS!
As always, ask me and i will provide a zoomed in map of whatever area you wish if it isn't clear from the big one.
District 23 (Robin's Egg Blue): M 54%, 57% W
Dallas and some northern suburbs
District 24 (Dark Purple): M 56%, 59% W
Dallas and Some Eastern areas
District 25 (Rose): M 54%, 59% W
Dallas then to some less populated eastern areas
District 26 (Silver) M 58%, 54% W
Dallas, FW, then to North Texas
District 27 (Sea Green) M 49%, 54% W
Dallas, FW, then to North Texas
District 28 (Pinkish Purple) M 60%, 57% W
Irving, then up to North Texas
District 29 (Gray Green): M 53%, 60% W
Waco and Forth Worth
District 30 (slightly lighter shade of rose then
the one touching it): M 55%, 60% W
Parts of Arlington, Dallas and Fort Worth
District 31 (Tan): M 61%, 71% W
North Fort Worth and Dallas then North
District 32 (Red Orange): M 64%, 79% W
North FW and then northern areas surrounding it
District 33 (I can't name that many different shades of blue): M 63%, 80% W
North of Dallas
District 34 (Somewhat dark-green): M 69%, 75% W
Wraps around a lot of other districts, filling in a lot of gaps
District 35 (Royal Purple): M 62%, 64% W
Everything Else Part 1
District 36 (Not Flyers Orange, but I'm using it anyways): M 68%, 69% W
Everything Else, Part 2
This is not a perfect 36-0 Map. The last 5-6 districts could bleed some republican voters to some of the more borderline districts. However, in an ok to good year, the republicans win all 36 seats barring an exceptional democratic candidate.
Dave's seems to have deleted my other maps. I'll redo them later and either edit this diary or do a new one, depending on what you guys thing.
Now that we know that the Texas House and Governor's mansion will be safely in the hands of the Republican Party during redistricting, I decided to draw a map using Dave Bradlee's application that predicts what the Republicans might do. (I used 1.0 instead of 2.0 because I had a previously drawn map that I could easily modify in 1.0. If there is an easy way to convert a 1.0 map to a 2.0 map, then please let me know in the comments.) Again to be clear, this is a prediction of what I think the new map might look like, not what I hope happens. I really wish I was sharing a more liberally friendly map than this one.
District 18 (Golden Yellow) 59 O, 30 Black 19 Hispanic 5 Asian
Dallas
Safe D
District 19 (Puke Green) 54 O, 22 Black 27 Hispanic 2 Asian
Dallas and a few southward counties
Likely D
District 20 (Rose) 55 O, 39 Hispanic 14 Black 6 Asian
Dallas and Irving
Likely D
District 21 (Blood Red) 50 O, 54 W
Dallas and surrounding areas
Toss-Up
District 22 (Poo Brown) 39 O 72 W
North of Dallas and FW
Safe R (Winnable with a great candidate in a good year or an incumbent in an ok one, but tilts very r)
District 23 (Robin's Egg Blue) 35 O 75 W
North of FW to OK border
Safe R
District 24 (Dark Purple) 29 O 72 W
Wraps Around 19, 13 to the end of 11
Safe R
District 25 (Salmon) 35 O, 79 W
North Of Dallas
Safe R
District 26 (Dark Gray) 33 O, 77 W
Between OK Border and 24
Safe R
District 27 (Seafoam Green)31 O 72 W
Along the LA Border
Safe R
Houston: http://img.photobucket.com/alb... Note: I made a small error here in the large map. It is fixed in the numbers and in the close--up of houston (part of the district didn't connect)
District 28 (Really Light Purple) 58 O 28 Black 13 Asian 26 Hispanic
Southwest Houston
Safe D
District 29 (Sage Green) 33 O 73 W
Northeast of Houston
Safe R
District 30 (Pinkish-Red near houston) 33 O 70 W
Wraps Around Houston
Safe R
District 31 (Pale Yellow) 39 O, 61 W
South of Houston
Safe R (See District 22)
District 32 (Bright Red) 37 O, 66 W
Wraps even closer around Houston then does 30
Safe R
District 33 (Denim Blue) 56 O, 24 B 7 A 28 H
Houston
Likely D
District 34 (Green in Houston) 51 O, 12 B 6 A 34 H
Houston
Toss-up
District 35 (Purple in Houston) 53 O, 16 B 3 A 43 H
North Houston
Lean D
District 36 (Orange in Houston) 62 O, 26 B 42 H
Southeast Houston riding up to Northwest Houston
Safe D
What I think makes this most effective is that the Democratic districts will only get more liberal over the Decade, cementing the safety of Incumbents and helping unseat any republicans who manage to pull an upset or win a toss-up.
Please reply, this took a while :)
And a big thank you for my girlfriend for help with the names of colors (You can tell which parts she left for, lol)
Continuing the thought experiment about what 2010 redistricting look might like under the "Wyoming Rule," I give you Texas. The mid-cycle Delaymander, together with the freak elections of Farenthold and (slightly less shocking) Canseco, several incumbents in the Dallas and Houston areas that are seeing their once solid districts become purplish (think Culberson and Sessions), means that likely the GOP is going to play tactical defense with redistricting this time around. But the nice thing with adding 14 new districts (versus 3-4 in actual reality) under the Wyoming Rule is the GOP is able, in addition to protecting each and every one of its incumbents, to create several open GOP seats throughout the state.
The second thing I wanted to know what how exactly the VRA might place a monkey wrench in efforts to expand the GOP congressional delegation in Texas. We know in reality, with a likely 35 or 36 seats after 2010, 2-3 of those will be new VRA seats (probably a new Hispanic district each in the Dallas-Forth Worth and Houston areas), plus perhaps a new Hispanic district in South/West Texas. But, interestingly, under Wyoming-sized districts, even though there are more VRA districts, the GOP is still able under this map to gain 9 out of the 14 new districts (and that includes one VRA Hispanic district in West Texas that voted 55% for McCain!) It turns out that the VRA will not prevent the GOP from locking down a likely 32-14 split in Texas' congressional delegation under the Wyoming Rule. Follow me below the jump for maps and a fuller explanation.
I have been analyzing the available early/absentee vote totals from the first three days of voting in Texas. Texas makes the cumulative early vote and absentee vote totals for the 15 most populous counties available, and also has day-by-day breakdowns available from previous years, providing great data for analysis.
Early vote numbers are up in every county. So being that the numbers aren't release by party, how can we tell who is turning out? My choice was to arrange the 15 counties according to the performance of Barack Obama in the county, to get a rough idea of how Democratic the county is (arranging by Kay Bailey Hutchinson's performance in 2006 gave a nearly identical inverse arrangement). Then, I compared the 2010 vote so far to the vote in the county at this point in 2006, to see if there was a correlation between increased turnout this cycle and how Democratic the county was. I then adjusted it for change in voter registration between 2006 and 2010.
This chart shows that the average county has so far cast 1.8 votes for every vote cast in 2006. The counties on the left voted more strongly for Obama, and the counties on the right voted more strongly for McCain. There is a spike in the middle for two counties: Harris and Fort Bend, near Houston, which were both roughly split in the vote in 2008. If you ignore them for now, and look at the turnout in Obama counties (52% or more Obama vote), in these counties 1.57 votes have been cast for every vote in 2006. In the McCain counties (47% or less Obama vote), 1.65 votes have been cast for every vote in 2006.
These numbers indicate that the advantage in Republican counties in Texas compared to Democratic counties is very slight, an advantage of 0.08 votes in 2010 for every vote in 2006. No indication of Democrats getting crushed here. What's going on in Harris and Fort Bend? My assumption is that these counties, being from the Houston area, are influenced by the presence of former Houston Mayor Bill White in the Governor's race. Whether people are coming out to vote for or against him, I can't say. I have seen it mentioned that turnout has been heavier in parts of Harris County that are more Republican-leaning, though I can't confirm that, and it doesn't seem to be part of a statewide trend. Voters in urban, conservative Tarrant County are turning out at lower rate than urban, liberal Travis County.
The turnout numbers as a percentage of registered voters seem to indicate that the partisan make-up of the county has little effect on turnout, so far. In short: no enthusiasm gap. There is one gap, though. Among the top 15 most populous counties in Texas, the ones that voted for Obama (counting Harris) have cast 284,635 votes so far. The ones that voted for McCain (counting Fort Bend) have cast 149,764 votes.
With Texas looking to gain four seats after the Census, I decided to gerrymander Texas to protect the current twenty Republican representatives. In my plan, I try to create a realistic-looking map and I try to follow the VRA. In my opinion, there will need to be at least two, maybe three new VRA-protected Hispanic-majority seats. My plan draws two, but they're not slam-dunks for Democrats, unless Arizona's "papers, please" law mobilizes Hispanics to actually, well, vote. Republicans will pick up two of the new seats for sure, and probably the third.
With the GOP likely in control of the House, definitely the Senate, a quite possibly the governor's mansion, this is what I think the trifecta might do.
In the end, only two white Democrats should survive this plan, unless Gene Green gets primaried by an ambitious Hispanic politician. Also, Ciro Rodriguez-who doesn't even live there in the 23rd anymore-gets a pretty tough district.
In the end, this plan should result in a 26-10 Republican majority, while substantially protecting all Republican incumbents. At the end of the decade, though, this could change. The ideal population numbers are all within a 1000, meaning the districts can change a little to get to the ideal number, 0. There is 3,963 people who I can't find on the map; they voted 62-38 for McCain.
After reading the write up, scroll down to see my summary at the end.
Please enjoy!
P.S. I worked forever on this, so I will go crazy if I see some b.s. diary go up and bump it down. Y'all know what I'm talking about.
This diary takes a look at what might have happened if the 2003 Texas redistricting had never occurred. I compared the 2000 demographics and presidential results for the map used in the 2002 elections with the 2008 demographics and presidential results under the same lines. I used Dave's App to do this, with the Test Data setting to get the political data, but the regular voting district map (without the Test Data setting) to get the correct demographic estimates. I also looked at the shifts for the districts during this time period and elaborated a bit on what might have occurred had this map remained in place for the rest of the decade. Please vote in the survey at the end as well. Thanks and enjoy!
Statewide Map
East Texas District 1 (Blue); Northeast Texas-Texarkana, Paris, Greenville, Nacogdoches, Marshall
2002 winner and winning percentage: Max Sandlin (D), 56%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
75
16
7
0
651,619
2008 population (est.)
72
15
11
1
683,417
Change from 2000 to 2008
-3
-1
+4
+1
+31,798
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
64% Bush-36% Gore
69% McCain-30% Obama
+5% Republican, -6% Democratic
District 2 (Green): East Texas-Lufkin, Orange, Huntsville, Liberty
2002 winner and winning percentage: Jim Turner (D), 61%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
76
14
9
0
651,619
2008 population (est.)
73
13
12
1
683,417
Change from 2000 to 2008
-3
-1
+3
+1
+37,712
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
63% Bush-37% Gore
70% McCain-29% Obama
+7% Republican, -8% Democratic
District 4 (Red): North and East Texas-Longview, Tyler, Sherman
2002 winner and winning percentage: Ralph Hall (D), 58%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
77
12
9
1
651,620
2008 population (est.)
72
11
14
1
773,426
Change from 2000 to 2008
-5
-1
+5
0
+121,806
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
70% Bush-30% Gore
70% McCain-29% Obama
0% Republican, -1% Democratic
District 9 (Light Blue): East Texas and Harris County-Beaumont, Port Arthur, Galveston, Texas City
2002 winner and winning percentage: Nick Lampson (D), 59%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
60
21
14
3
651,619
2008 population (est.)
56
21
19
3
675,944
Change from 2000 to 2008
-4
0
+5
0
+24,325
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
55% Bush-45% Gore
56% McCain-43% Obama
+1% Republican, -2% Democratic
Dallas/Fort Worth Area District 3 (Purple):Collin County and northern Dallas County-Richardson, Garland, Plano, McKinney
2002 winner and winning percentage: Sam Johnson (R), 74%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
70
7
14
7
651,620
2008 population (est.)
61
9
18
10
898,778
Change from 2000 to 2008
-9
+2
+4
+3
+247,158
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
72% Bush-28% Gore
60% McCain-39% Obama
-12% Republican, +11% Democratic
District 5 (Yellow): Dallas County and Central/East Texas-Dallas, Mesquite, Palestine, Athens
2002 winner and winning percentage: Jeb Hensarling (R), 58%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
63
16
18
2
651,620
2008 population (est.)
56
17
23
2
677,043
Change from 2000 to 2008
-7
+1
+5
0
+25,423
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
62% Bush-38% Gore
57% McCain-42% Obama
-5% Republican, +4% Democratic
District 6 (Dark Teal): Tarrant County and Dallas/Fort Worth suburbs and exurbs: Arlington, Ennis, Cleburne, Corsicana
2002 winner and winning percentage: Joe Barton (R), 70%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
72
10
14
3
651,620
2008 population (est.)
67
11
18
3
748,734
Change from 2000 to 2008
-5
+1
+4
0
+97,114
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
67% Bush-33% Gore
61% McCain-38% Obama
-6% Republican, +5% Democratic
District 12 (Periwinkle): Tarrant and Parker Counties-Weatherford, Fort Worth, Keller
2002 winner and winning percentage: Kay Granger (R), 92%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
71
5
20
2
651,619
2008 population (est.)
64
5
26
3
788,643
Change from 2000 to 2008
-7
0
+6
+1
+137,024
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
67% Bush-33% Gore
65% McCain-34% Obama
-2% Republican, +1% Democratic
District 24 (Dark Purple): Dallas and Tarrant Counties-Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Duncanville
2002 winner and winning percentage: Martin Frost (D), 65%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
35
22
38
3
651,619
2008 population (est.)
28
22
45
4
836,571
Change from 2000 to 2008
-7
0
+7
+1
+184,952
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
46% Bush-54% Gore
36% McCain-63% Obama
-10% Republican, +9% Democratic
District 26 (Dark Gray): Denton, Tarrant, and Collin Counties-Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, McKinney
2002 winner and winning percentage: Michael Burgess (R), 75%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
78
5
11
4
651,619
2008 population (est.)
70
7
16
6
897,454
Change from 2000 to 2008
-8
+2
+5
+2
+245,835
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
73% Bush-27% Gore
63% McCain-36% Obama
-10% Republican, +9% Democratic
District 30 (Salmon): Dallas County: Dallas, Irving
2002 winner and winning percentage: Eddie Bernice Johnson (D), 74%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
25
41
31
2
651,620
2008 population (est.)
19
39
39
2
726,340
Change from 2000 to 2008
-6
-2
+8
0
+74,720
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
31% Bush-69% Gore
21% McCain-78% Obama
-10% Republican, +9% Democratic
District 32 (Burnt Orange): Dallas County-Dallas, Farmer's Branch, University/Highland Park, Irving
2002 winner and winning percentage: Pete Sessions (R), 68%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
55
9
27
6
651,619
2008 population (est.)
44
9
38
7
703,588
Change from 2000 to 2008
-11
0
+11
+1
+51,969
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
65% Bush-35% Gore
53% McCain-46% Obama
-12% Republican, +13% Democratic
Houston Area District 7 (Gray): Harris County-western Houston, the Villages
2002 winner and winning percentage: John Culberson (R), 89%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
50
11
26
11
651,620
2008 population (est.)
43
11
32
12
746,517
Change from 2000 to 2008
-7
0
+6
+1
+94,897
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
68% Bush-32% Gore
55% McCain-44% Obama
-13% Republican, +12% Democratic
District 8 (Dark Lavender): Harris and Montgomery Counties-Jersey Village, Humble, Conroe
2002 winner and winning percentage: Kevin Brady (R), 93%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
77
5
13
3
651,619
2008 population (est.)
71
6
18
4
846,293
Change from 2000 to 2008
-6
+1
+5
+1
+194,674
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
78% Bush-22% Gore
71% McCain-28% Obama
-7% Republican, +6% Democratic
District 18 (Banana Yellow): Harris County-Houston
2002 winner and winning percentage: Sheila Jackson-Lee (D), 77%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
21
42
33
3
651,620
2008 population (est.)
18
41
38
3
779,948
Change from 2000 to 2008
-3
-1
+5
0
+128,328
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
26% Bush-74% Gore
22% McCain-77% Obama
-4% Republican, +3% Democratic
District 22 (Brown): Fort Bend, Brazoria, and Harris Counties-Rosenberg, Sugarland, Pearland, Pasadena
2002 winner and winning percentage: Tom DeLay (R), 63%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
60
10
20
8
651,619
2008 population (est.)
52
12
23
12
866,297
Change from 2000 to 2008
-8
+2
+3
+4
+214,678
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
68% Bush-32% Gore
59% McCain-40% Obama
-9% Republican, +8% Democratic
District 25 (Dark Pink): Fort Bend and Harris Counties-Houston, Belaire, University Place, South Houston, Baytown
2002 winner and winning percentage: Chris Bell (D), 55%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
37
23
34
5
651,619
2008 population (est.)
32
22
40
5
683,417
Change from 2000 to 2008
-5
-1
+6
0
+156,401
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
48% Bush-52% Gore
41% McCain-59% Obama
-7% Republican, +7% Democratic
District 29 (Grayish Green): Harris County-Houston, Jacinto City, Galena Park, South Houston
2002 winner and winning percentage: Gene Green (D), 95%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
20
15
62
2
651,620
2008 population (est.)
16
13
68
2
825,305
Change from 2000 to 2008
-4
-2
+6
0
+173,685
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
39% Bush-61% Gore
31% McCain-69% Obama
-8% Republican, +8% Democratic
Central Texas District 10 (Magenta): Travis County-Austin
2002 winner and winning percentage: Lloyd Doggett (D), 84%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
50
11
33
4
651,619
2008 population (est.)
45
10
38
5
809,987
Change from 2000 to 2008
-5
-1
+5
+1
+158,368
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
47% Bush-53% Gore
28% McCain-70% Obama
-19% Republican, +17% Democratic
District 11 (Lime Green): Central Texas-Waco, Georgetown, Temple, Killeen
2002 winner and winning percentage: Chet Edwards (D), 52%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
64
15
16
2
651,620
2008 population (est.)
61
15
20
2
742,620
Change from 2000 to 2008
-3
0
+4
0
+91,000
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
67% Bush-33% Gore
61% McCain-38% Obama
-6% Republican, +5% Democratic
District 14 (Bronze): Texas Hill Country and Texas Coastline-Victoria, San Marcos, Calhoun, Seguin
2002 winner and winning percentage: Ron Paul (R), 68%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
58
8
32
1
651,620
2008 population (est.)
54
8
35
1
751,893
Change from 2000 to 2008
-4
0
+3
0
+100,273
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
66% Bush-34% Gore
62% McCain-37% Obama
-4% Republican, +3% Democratic
District 21 (Maroon): Central/West Texas-San Antonio, Austin, New Braunfels
2002 winner and winning percentage: Lamar Smith (R), 73%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
77
2
17
2
651,619
2008 population (est.)
74
2
20
3
779,551
Change from 2000 to 2008
-3
0
+3
+1
+127,932
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
73% Bush-27% Gore
62% McCain-37% Obama
-11% Republican, +10% Democratic
District 31 (Beige): Central Texas and Houston suburbs/exurbs: Round Rock, Bryan, Sealy, Katy
2002 winner and winning percentage: John Carter (R), 69%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
69
9
17
3
651,620
2008 population (est.)
64
9
21
4
780,639
Change from 2000 to 2008
-5
0
+4
+1
+129,019
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
72% Bush-28% Gore
60% McCain-38% Obama
-12% Republican, +10% Democratic
West Texas District 13 (Tan): West Texas-Wichita Falls, Amarillo
2002 winner and winning percentage: Mac Thornberry (R), 79%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
70
6
22
1
651,619
2008 population (est.)
65
6
26
1
654,677
Change from 2000 to 2008
-5
0
+4
0
+3,058
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
75% Bush-25% Gore
76% McCain-23% Obama
+1% Republican, -2% Democratic
District 16 (Bright Green): El Paso County: El Paso
2002 winner and winning percentage: Silvestre Reyes (D), unopposed
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
17
3
78
1
651,619
2008 population (est.)
14
3
81
1
683,417
Change from 2000 to 2008
-3
0
+3
0
+59,428
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
41% Bush-59% Gore
33% McCain-66% Obama
-8% Republican, +7% Democratic
District 17 (Iris): West Texas: Abilene, San Angelo
2002 winner and winning percentage: Charlie Stenholm (D), 51%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
75
4
20
1
651,619
2008 population (est.)
71
4
23
1
683,417
Change from 2000 to 2008
-4
0
+3
0
+16,986
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
72% Bush-28% Gore
75% McCain-24% Obama
+3% Republican, -4% Democratic
District 19 (Pea Green): West Texas-Lubbock, Big Spring, Midland, Odessa
2002 winner and winning percentage: Larry Combest (R), 92%
2003 special election winner and winning percentage: Randy Neugebauer (R), 51%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
58
6
34
1
651,619
2008 population (est.)
53
6
39
1
689,654
Change from 2000 to 2008
-5
0
+5
0
+38,035
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
76% Bush-24% Gore
73% McCain-27% Obama
-3% Republican, +3% Democratic
San Antonio and South Texas
District 15 (Tangerine): South Texas- McAllen, Kingsville
2002 winner and winning percentage: Ruben Hinojosa (D), unopposed
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
17
3
78
1
651,619
2008 population (est.)
14
3
81
1
711,047
Change from 2000 to 2008
-3
0
+3
0
+59,428
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
41% Bush-59% Gore
33% McCain-66% Obama
-8% Republican, +7% Democratic
District 20 (Light Pink): Bexar County-San Antonio
2002 winner and winning percentage: Charlie Gonzalez, unopposed
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
24
5
68
1
651,619
2008 population (est.)
21
5
71
2
776,861
Change from 2000 to 2008
-3
0
+3
+1
+125,242
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
43% Bush-57% Gore
36% McCain-63% Obama
-7% Republican, +6% Democratic
District 23 (Light Blue): West and South Texas: El Paso, Eagle Pass, Laredo, San Antonio
2002 winner and winning percentage: Henry Bonilla (R), 52%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
30
1
67
1
651,619
2008 population (est.)
27
1
69
1
728,212
Change from 2000 to 2008
-3
0
+2
0
+76,593
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
59% Bush-41% Gore
50% McCain-49% Obama
-9% Republican, +8% Democratic
District 27 (Spring Green): South Texas-Corpus Christi, Harlingen, Brownsville
2002 winner and winning percentage: Solomon Ortiz, 61%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
25
2
72
1
651,619
2008 population (est.)
21
2
75
1
717,846
Change from 2000 to 2008
-4
0
+3
0
+66,227
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
49% Bush-51% Gore
43% McCain-56% Obama
-6% Republican, +5% Democratic
District 28 (Rose): South Texas and Bexar County: San Antonio, McAllen
2002 winner and winning percentage: Ciro Rodriguez (D), 71%
% white
% black
% Hispanic
% Asian
Total district population
2000 population
21
8
70
1
651,620
2008 population (est.)
19
7
72
1
761,316
Change from 2000 to 2008
-2
-1
+2
0
+109,696
2000 presidential results
2008 presidential results
Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
41% Bush-59% Gore
36% McCain-63% Obama
-5% Republican, +4% Democratic
So what would have happened in the past three elections had this map stayed in place for the rest of the decade? Often people assume that the Anglo Democratic incumbents who were targeted would have been reelected had the redistricting not occurred. This is definitely true in the case of Martin Frost, Lloyd Doggett, and Chris Bell, whose already Democratic and urban districts have shifted even more to the left since 2000. But the other Anglo Democrats largely came from more rural, Republican-leaning areas, and their districts all went for Bush in 2000. This list includes Max Sandlin, Jim Turner, Ralph Hall, Nick Lampson, Chet Edwards, and Charles Stenholm. Now let's look at a county map of Texas showing the change between 2000 and 2008, with the congressional districts where Gore outperformed Obama superimposed over the map.
Despite a roughly 4% move towards the Democrats statewide between 2000 and 2008, there were 6 congressional districts where Obama actually did worse than Gore: TX-01 (Max Sandlin (D)), TX-02 (Jim Turner (D)), TX-04 (Ralph Hall (D)), TX-09 (Nick Lampson (D)), TX-13 (Mac Thornberry (R)), and TX-17 (Charlie Stenholm (D)). Besides TX-13, all of these districts elected Democrats in 2002. In addition, all of the Anglo Democrats elected in districts that Bush won in 2000 saw their districts become more Republican over time, with one exception. TX-11 in Central Texas would have become notably more Democratic during this time period, and its representative, Chet Edwards, is the only one of these men still in office as a Democrat.
However, I am not convinced that the marked rightward shift would have occurred inevitably had the boundaries not changed in the 2003 redistricting. Many residents in these districts were trending Republican at the presidential level, but felt comfortable continuing to vote for Democrats at the congressional level. But in 2004, the redrawn districts included areas that had previously been represented by Republicans or by other targeted Democratic members, meaning the advantage of incumbency was greatly diminished. This led to the defeat, party switching, or retirement of all the legislators listed above, but I believe, also contributed to these areas becoming more Republican at the presidential level in 2004 and 2008. Without the option to vote for a familiar incumbent Democrat for Congress further down the ballot, voters felt less inclined to vote for a Democrat at any level, including President. Had the 2003 redistricting not occurred, I believe not only that several of these lawmakers might still be in office, but Obama may have even performed better in these districts in 2008.
Other than the representatives just discussed, I believe that all of the other Democratic and Republican incumbents would still be in office right now, with the possible exceptions of John Culberson (R, 7th) and Henry Bonilla (R, 23rd), whose districts would have become much more competitive by the end of the decade. But I think this analysis shows that in the long-term, Texas is turning blue, and it is only a matter of time before the shifts to the Democrats in the Houston area, the Dallas/Forth Worth Area, and Central Texas finally push Texas into the Democratic column.
Rasmussen Reports released polling for the Texas Governor's race today. Surveying likely voters, they found incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Perry ahead 48% - 44% over former Houston Mayor Bill White.
I'm the writer/director of a new feature-length documentary about redistricting, a subject which I know is near and dear to many hearts here. It's called, aptly, GERRYMANDERING. I've been working it now for about five years and the film will have its world premiere two weeks from today in the Discovery section of New York's Tribeca Film Festival.
In the course of making the film, I got in touch with DavidNYC who provided terrific advice here and there. When I let him know about the premiere he suggested I diary about it, so here goes...
In today's daily digest, it was posted that Team Blue and the GOP are trying to hammer out a compromise that would effectively split Texas' four new congressional districts: two for Democrats and two for Republicans. (The article can be found here.)
For a little while, I've been working on a diary examining whether the VRA helps or hurts Team Blue, specifically in the South. My first diary was going to be about Texas, specifically the Metroplex and the near-the-border districts. So, while that diary might still happen, I think it would be interesting to use Dave's Redistricting App to examine how this proposed compromise would affect the Texas Congressional delegation.
DISCLAIMER: All districts are drawn as a Republican gerrymander, keeping with VRA restrictions. Also, incumbent homes are largely ignored.
