Looks like a tight race in Virginia... for second place. The undecideds seem to almost all be moving in the same direction.
I'm not going to call the race like I did the Saturday before the election for Kay Hagan based on early returns from our final poll because preferences in this race have been so fluid. But it doesn't look like things are going to be as close on Tuesday as the polling in the last week suggested.
What do you think the numbers will look like? For reference, their prior numbers are here. We'll post the results just as soon as PPP makes them available.
Creigh Deeds (D): 40 (27)
Terry McAuliffe (D): 26 (24)
Brian Moran (D): 24 (22)
Undecided: 10 (26)
(MoE: ±3.0%)
Wow. What a huge movement for Creigh Deeds in just a few short weeks. Remember, Deeds was lagging at 14% in PPP's 5/1-3 poll, but a well-timed endorsement from the Washington Post was clearly the catalyst for Deeds' remarkable surge -- and probably also a sign that a sizable share of Moran and McAuliffe's support was pretty soft in the first place. Indeed, in the vote-rich DC burbs in Northern Virginia, where Deeds has been almost a non-factor for much of the race, Deeds has now pulled ahead of Moran by a 38-35 margin, with 20% going to McAuliffe.
And speaking of McAuliffe, take a look at his horrid favorability rating; among Democratic primary voters, just as many voters have a favorable opinion of the ex-DNC chair as those who dislike him (40%-40%). That's pretty brutal. If Deeds can hold onto his lead on Tuesday, we may be dodging a major bullet here.
Of course, the usual caveats apply: Pegging the primary voter universe is a notoriously tough business (especially in an ultra-low turnout state like Virginia), and the ground game will be key on Tuesday. For now, though, the momentum is clearly at the back of Deeds.
Terry McAuliffe (D): 35 (37)
Brian Moran (D): 26 (22)
Creigh Deeds (D): 29 (26)
Other/Undecided: 11 (14)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Cap'n, will you have a look a' that!
Deeds was also the only candidate of the three to improve in head-to-heads against Bob McDonnell - in the last poll, he trailed 46-40, but is now just a point back at 44-43. McAuliffe and Moran both treaded water. The primary is this coming Tuesday, June 9th. Once again, SSP will be here to liveblog the results.
UPDATE (James): Suffolk has released a poll this morning showing Deeds with 29% to McAuliffe's 26%, with Moran at 23%. And with that, Deeds takes the lead in Pollster.com's graph.
• MN-Sen: Despite the seemingly increased likelihood that he'd jerk Al Franken around now that he doesn't have to worry about re-election and how impatient Minnesotans feel about the Senate vacancy, Gov. Tim Pawlenty says he'll certify Al Franken as winner of the Senate race if the state Supreme Court directs him to do so. Also, many are interpreting John Cornyn's comments about how the Senate GOP doesn't have the votes to filibuster Sonia Sotomayor, even if they wanted to, as being a tacit admission that Franken would be seated soon.
• NC-Sen: It never quite seemed likely, but Elizabeth Edwards silenced any speculation that she might run for Senate against Richard Burr next year.
• KY-Sen: Here's a new name sniffing out the Kentucky Senate primary. A staffer for Rep. Ed Whitfield from KY-01 just bought both domain names for "whitfieldforsenate.com" and "whitfieldforgovernor.com" (and inexplicably paid $800 for the two names). Maybe SoS Trey Grayson may have some company in the primary if Jim Bunning truly does bail out?
• VA-Gov: Ex-Del. Brian Moran leaked an internal poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner to Political Wire. Lo and behold, it shows Moran in the lead, with 29% to 27% for Creigh Deeds and 26% for Terry McAuliffe. (Meaning that in the last week, each of the three primary candidates have led a poll.) (UPDATE: PPP points out a flaw here: this isn't a topline, but the result from a subsample that's disposed to do well for Moran: people who've participated in Democratic primaries prior to last year's presidential race.)
Fundraising numbers for the three candidates also just came out: McAuliffe is way ahead on the money front, with $1.8 mil raised last quarter and $1.3 mil CoH ($7 mil total). Deeds raised $676K with $521K CoH ($3.8 mil total), and Moran raised $844K with $700 CoH ($4.8 mil total).
• MN-Gov: With T-Paw getting out, a flood of second-tier Republicans has spilled out in search of the nomination. State Sen. David Hann, state Sen. Geoff Michel, state Rep. Marty Seifert, state Rep. Paul Kohls, and former legislator Charlie Weaver are "interested." Former Auditor Pat Anderson is going so far as to say she'll announce in a month or two. Others mentioned include state Rep. Laura Brod, national committee member Brian Sullivan, and former state House speaker and current Labor and Industry Commissioner Steve Sviggum. The Star-Tribune also mentioned former Rep. Jim Ramstad (who'd do well in the general but may be too moderate to survive the nominating convention), state Sen. minority leader David Senjem, and one very big wild card... Norm Coleman, although his dragging-out of the Senate race can't have helped his favorables. One prominent name who apparently isn't interested: Rep. Michele Bachmann.
• MI-Gov: The Republican field in the Michigan governor's race got even more crowded, as Oakland Co. Sheriff Rick Bouchard got in. (Bouchard lost the 2006 Senate race to Debbie Stabenow.) Bouchard's entry was faciliated when his boss, Oakland Co. Exec L. Brooks Patterson, declined to run -- but Bouchard may do exactly what Patterson would have done, which is split the Detroit suburban vote with AG Mike Cox, making it easier for Rep. Pete Hoekstra from the state's west to sneak through.
• CO-04: Ex-Rep. Marilyn Musgrave fired off a rather unhinged-sounding fundraising letter on behalf of her new employers in the culture war, the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List. This may actually work to Rep. Betsy Markey's advantage; she made reference to Musgrave's letter in her own appeal for contributions.
• FL-17: Politics1 has an interesting, if a bit unsavory, rumor coming out of south Florida: 83-year-old former Rep. Carrie Meek may get on the ballot in FL-17, essentially to act as a one-term placeholder for her son, Rep. Kendrick Meek. (If he lost the Senate race, she would re-retire in 2012 and thus let him get his old job back. Or, if Meek won the Senate race, she'd still retire and let someone new take over FL-17.) Meek denied the rumor, though, to National Journal.
• FL-25: Here's a potentially big name to take on Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, who beat Joe Garcia by a small margin in 2008. Miami Mayor Manny Diaz is reportedly taking a look at the race; his name has also been mentioned in connection with the open Lt. Gov. slot.
• NC-11: PPP's Tom Jensen looks at possible Democratic successors in this R+6 district if Rep. Heath Shuler gives up the seat to run for Senate. He cites state Sens. John Snow and Joe Sam Queen as likeliest. (He also links to a great map from Civitas that calculates the PVI for all of North Carolina's state Senate districts.)
• SC-01: Rep. Henry Brown threw a "thank you" party in Myrtle Beach for his supporters, and at least 11 people walked away with the best possible tokens of his gratitude: diarrhea and nausea. State health officials are investigating to see if it was the result of food poisoning or just of the Republican rhetoric. Also, 2008 challenger Linda Ketner, who came close to knocking off Brown as an openly lesbian candidate in a dark-red district, may not be looking to run again. She did a refreshingly honest interview with FireDogLake, maybe a little too refreshing vis-a-vis her future viability, in terms of referring to "the conservative, religious crazy vote" and outing several prominent South Carolina politicians.
• UT-LG: A third generation of Romneys is getting warmed up (in a third state). Mitt Romney's 33-year-old son Josh has been in talks with soon-to-be-Gov. Gary Herbert about the open Lieutenant Governor's position.
• AL-St. Senate: Democrats can still be a downballot force in Alabama, managing to hold a state Senate seat in a deep-red part of rural Alabama north of Mobile. State Rep. Mark Keahey (who's only 28) narrowly defeated Republican former state Rep. Greg Albritton, in a special election triggered by the January death of Democratic Sen. Pat Lindsey. (UPDATE: Actually, it turns out that the margin wasn't so tight. Keahey crushed Albritton by a devastating 58-42 margin.)
• NH-St. House: In another special election, Democrats held a state House seat based in Lebanon, New Hampshire, as fire captain Andy White beat Republican Randy Wagoner. It's Democratic-leaning turf, but the GOP turned this into a proxy battle over gay marriage (White is a vote in favor of it), and out-of-district money enabled Wagoner to outspend White at least 4-to-1.
Creigh Deeds 27 (20)
Terry McAuliffe 24 (29)
Brian Moran 22 (20)
"Two major developments have shaped the movement in the race over the last week and a half. The first is Deeds' endorsement by the Washington Post. He has gone from 11% in northern Virginian to 23%. With 30% of the primary electorate coming from that region that alone accounts for more than half of his jump from 20 to 27%."
"The second is a decline in support for Terry McAuliffe in the areas where Brian Moran has run television ads attacking him. In the last survey McAuliffe was running at 33% in Hampton Roads and 34% in greater Richmond. He's now declined to 25 and 23% respectively in those markets."
"We've been saying for months this was anyone's game and it's more true now than ever," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. "All three candidates have a perfectly reasonable chance of coming out on top next Tuesday."
Terry McAuliffe (D): 29 (30)
Brian Moran (D): 20 (20)
Creigh Deeds (D): 20 (14)
Undecided: 31 (36)
(MoE: 3.9%)
Despite what you see here, PPP and R2K actually showed similar surges for McAuliffe - it's just that PPP has polled more frequently. If you go back to their late March survey, the numbers are very similar to R2K's. The biggest difference between the newest polls is that PPP, like SUSA, shows Deeds - who was just endorsed by the Washington Post - moving up, while R2K has him stagnating.
Even if Deeds does have positive momentum, will it be enough? The primary is just two weeks from today, and this is what all the recent polling looks like:
PPP suggests that McAuliffe is benefitting from the fact that neither Moran nor Deeds has been able to consolidate the support) of people who don't like T-Mac (they split that group 40-35 in Moran's favor). Time is running out for either man to break that logjam.
P.S. R2K also tested general election matchups, which you can find here.
Terry McAuliffe (D): 37 (38)
Brian Moran (D): 22 (22)
Creigh Deeds (D): 26 (22)
Other/Undecided: 14 (18)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Creigh Deeds (D): 40 (39)
Bob McDonnell (R): 46 (44)
Terry McAuliffe (D): 40 (39)
Bob McDonnell (R): 46 (46)
Brian Moran (D): 37 (34)
Bob McDonnell (R): 47 (46)
(MoE: ±2.4%)
Reasearch 2000 will have a new primary poll out tomorrow, and PPP will have one Friday or Saturday. They note that the three candidates are evenly split among frequent primary voters, but more casual voters lean decidedly toward McAuliffe. The primary is on June 9th.
MO-Sen: Law professor Tom Schweich has publicly floated running for the Missouri GOP Senate nomination. Schweich used to be John Danforth's chief of staff and was Ambassador for counternarcotics in Afghanistan in the Bush administration. Interestingly, the main motivation for his run that he's putting out there is the fear (nay, likelihood) that Roy Blunt would lose the general election and that he (as sort of a Danforth proxy) offers a more appealing figure.
VA-Gov: Former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe, who's been demonstrating a lot of momentum in the polls lately, got another big boost: he picked up the endorsement of the SEIU today.
NM-Gov: New Mexico's only current statewide Republican elected official, Land Commissioner Pat Lyons, was a rumored gubernatorial candidate, especially since he's term-limited out of his current job. In an indication of how popular the GOP brand is in New Mexico right now, Lyons decided to pass on the open seat race, instead running for an open position on New Mexico's Public Regulation Commission.
FL-Gov: I hadn't even considered, with Charlie Crist bolting from Tallahassee, that Jeb! Bush might seek a return engagement as governor. After a Draft Jeb website popped up, Bush politely declined, saying that he will instead "continue to play a constructive role in the future of the Republican Party."
OH-Auditor: David Pepper (D), a Hamilton Co. Commissioner (and former Cinci Councilor/Cinci mayoral candidate who lost by a hair in 2005) is going to run against Ohio Auditor Mary Taylor (R). This is a crucial office because it controls a seat on the Ohio Reapportionment Board (which draws state legislative seats) and the GOP will be making a serious run at the open Secretary of State position that Jennifer Brunner is vacating (which also determines a seat on the board). Taylor says that she will announce whether she'll run for re-election or in the GOP primary against Rob Portman for Senate later this week. (J)
NH-01: Manchester mayor Frank Guinta has been acting like a candidate for a long time, but finally had his official kickoff event yesterday. Guinta hit every note in the libertarian book, singing the praises of tea baggers, criticizing the stimulus package, and saying that EFCA is "blatantly against" New Hampshire's "live free or die" mentality.
IL-06: Lost in the IL-Sen shuffle is Rep. Peter Roskam, who had occasionally been mentioned as a candidate for that (or governor). Roskam says it's "increasingly less likely" that he'll run for higher office, and seek to stay put instead.
NRCC: The NRCC has launched a new wave of radio ads against theoretically vulnerable Dems in nine districts, still harping on the stimulus package, trying to tie them to John Murtha and his "airport for no one" (riffing on the "bridge to nowhere," I suppose). Targets were Vic Snyder (AR-02), Mark Schauer (MI-07), Travis Childers (MS-01), Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01), Harry Teague (NM-02), Mike Arcuri (NY-24), Larry Kissell (NC-08), Kurt Schrader (OR-05), and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL).
Mayors: Yet more mayoral elections in the news. Today, it's Omaha, where there's a faceoff between Democrat Jim Suttle and Republican Hal Daub (a former mayor and former Representative) to replaced retiring Dem mayor Mike Fahey. A recent poll had Daub up 42-39, but there may be a Democratic trend at work in Omaha (as seen in Obama's victory in NE-02).
This is a big jump for T-Mac from the last PPP poll, which actually had him trailing Moran. But this is now the second survey in a row (SUSA's was the first) to show McAuliffe with a sizable lead. Still, there are a ton of undecideds and just a month left to go in the race - a lot can happen.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (4/6-8, registered voters):
Brian Moran (D): 24
Terry McAuliffe (D): 19
Creigh Deeds (D): 16
(MoE: ±5%)
Brian Moran (D): 36
Bob McDonnell (R): 37
Terry McAuliffe (D): 33
Bob McDonnell (R): 40
Creigh Deeds (D): 31
Bob McDonnell (R): 38
(MoE: ±4%)
Research 2000 polls the Virginia governor's race for the first time, finding that ex-Delegate Brian Moran has a small advantage in the primary over former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe. A recent PPP poll had Moran and McAuliffe tied, but gave Moran the momentum (McAuliffe had previously led), and found McAuliffe with higher negatives. That's mirrored here: Moran's favorables are 36/33 while McAuliffe is the only candidate in net negative territory at 35/36.
Moran fares slightly better in the general than the other Dems because of his solid base in northern Virginia (he used to represent Alexandria), winning NoVa against Bob McDonnell 49-21. McDonnell wins the rest of the state 43-31, though, and sports impressive favorables of 48/31. Once the Dem primary is over and the winner can aim his fire at McDonnell instead of the other Dems, though, maybe his negatives can get driven up. McDonnell's support for the GOP-led House of Delegates' decision to reject federal stimulus money for unemployment benefits provides a good opening.
• IL-05: Congratulations to our newest House member, Mike Quigley. The Cook County Commissioner won the special election in this safe Dem seat last night, defeating GOPer Rosanna Pulido 70-24 (with the balance going to Green Party candidate Matt Reichel). (There were only about 34,000 votes cast in this election, compared with about 58,000 in the primary, since that's where all the action was.)
• AK-Sen: Gov. Sarah Palin will not be challenging Sen. Lisa Murkowski in the 2010 senate primary; in fact, she'll be assisting Murkowski with raising money (despite simmering tensions between the two factions). It remains to be seen whether she'll be running for re-election as governor in 2010, or bailing out after one term to focus on the 2012 presidential race (which, geographically speaking, is hard to do from Alaska).
• VA-Gov: If there's one thing Terry McAuliffe is good at, it's raising money. He raked in $4.2 million in the first quarter for his gubernatorial campaign. He started April with $2.5 million CoH as the race heads toward the June 9 primary.
• IA-Gov: With Iowa's Supreme Court having effectively made same-sex marriages legal, the 2010 governor's race could turn into a proxy referendum on the issue (with Gov. Chet Culver unwilling to amend the state constitution to block the courts). And this may draw a higher-profile challenger to the race: nutty GOP Rep. Steve King, whose name has been occasionally associated with this race, says the sudden rise of this issue makes him "more likely" to enter the race.
• GA-Gov: As noted by fitchfan28 in diaries, state House minority leader Dubose Porter has thrown his hat into the ring for the Democratic nomination for Georgia governor. He joins AG Thurbert Baker and former SoS David Poythress as announced candidates, with former governor Roy Barnes scoping out the race as well.
• NJ-12: Rush Holt may receive a credible challenge in 2010, from Fair Haven mayor Mike Halfacre, who just filed exploratory paperwork. Fair Haven is in Republican-leaning Monmouth County; the district as a whole, though, is blue, if not overwhelming so (Obama won 58-41).
• EFCA: In the wake of yesterday's announcement that Blanche Lincoln would oppose EFCA's current form, two more moderate Dem wafflers got off the fence in favor of EFCA (or, more technically, in favor of cloture): Mark Udall and Mark Warner. Campaign Diaries has a very handy head count, indicating that possible passage is still very close, and an unpacked version of the bill (for instance, containing the binding arbitration portion, leaving 'card check' for another year) may still be passed.
• CfG: With Pat Toomey about to leave the helm of the Club for Growth to pursue his senate bid against Arlen Specter, they need someone new to wave the sword for the circular firing squad. Looks like the job may fall to yet another ex-Rep who brought the crazy to a swing district, Chris Chocola. (Chocola got bounced from IN-02 in 2006 by Joe Donnelly.)
• Omaha-Mayor: In last night's Omaha mayoral all-party primary election, former GOP Rep. Hal Daub (himself a former Omaha mayor) squeaked into first place with 35.6% of the vote to Democratic concilman Jim Suttle's 34.3%. Republican Councilman Jim Vokal came in third, picking up 28.2% of the vote. New Nebraska Network's Kyle Michaelis argues that despite the Republican candidates picking up more votes overall, Daub's weak finish is not a good sign for his chances in the general election. (J)
Brian Moran (D): 22 (19)
Terry McAuliffe (D): 18 (21)
Creigh Deeds (D): 15 (14)
(MoE: 3.6%)
PPP takes its monthly look at the Democratic primary in the Virginia governor's race. Ex-delegate Brian Moran and former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe have swapped places, with Moran moving into a small lead. Considering that nearly half the voters are still undecided, this looks more like normal fluctuation than a trend... although one item from the fine print suggests that McAuliffe's negatives may be increasing. His favorable/unfavorable is 32/29, up from 31/24 last month. (Moran and Deeds are less-known but have more upside, at 34/15 and 31/12 respectively.) There's no head-to-head poll against likely GOP nominee Robert McDonnell.
PPP also takes a look at the crowded Democratic primary for Lt. Governor, finding that 67% of voters are undecided. Among those who have decided, former Secretary of Finance Jody Wagner has a comfortable lead with 21%. Other candidates Jon Bowerbank, Pat Edmonson, and Michael Signer each poll at 4%.
• VA-Gov: PPP's latest has McAulliffe 21, Moran 19 and Deeds 14 for the Dem gubernatorial primary. Last month it was 18-18-11. The election is three months off. (D)
• PA-Sen: An opening for Pat Toomey? Susquehanna has a new poll showing Snarlin' Arlen's re-elects at just 38% - and an awful 26% among Republicans. (D)
• TX-Gov: Tom Schieffer, a former State Rep. and Bush Ambassador to Australia, has announced that he's forming an exploratory committee to seek the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in Texas. When questioned by reporters, Schieffer says that he does not regret voting for Bush for Governor and President. A recent PPP poll has Kay Bailey Hutchison crushing Schieffer by a 54-30 margin, while incumbent Gov. Rick Perry leads Schieffer by only 45-35. (J)
• IN-Gov: Is Baron Hill getting ready for a 2012 gubernatorial campaign? There was some brief speculation that he might run in 2008, but of course that never panned out. (J)
• OR-Gov: This may be a tea leaf that Gordon Smith is passing on the 2010 governor's race, or it may simply be a way to stay in the Beltway money loop for a year while laying groundwork, but Gordo is staying in DC and taking a "senior adviser" position (since he's subject to the two-year lobbying ban) with prominent DC law/lobbying/soul-devouring firm Covington & Burling.
Rasmussen (2/4, likely voters, 12/4 in parentheses):
Creigh Deeds (D): 30 (39)
Robert McDonnell (R): 39 (39)
Some other candidate: 6 (4)
Brian Moran (D): 36 (41)
Robert McDonnell (R): 39 (37)
Some other candidate: 4 (5)
Terry McAuliffe (D): 35 (36)
Robert McDonnell (R): 42 (41)
Some other candidate: 3 (5)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Rasmussen polls the Virginia governor's race a second time, meaning we now have trendlines... and, frankly, they don't look very appetizing. Ex-Del. Brian Moran led AG Robert McDonnell last time by 4, but now he's trailing by 3, while Del. Creigh Deeds fell from a tie to a 9-point deficit.
Part of the problem here may be that, while McDonnell has long since consolidated Republican support, the three Dem contenders are in primary attack mode, driving their numbers down as they target each other. The numbers in the McAuliffe/McDonnell matchup don't seem to have budged much, which suggests that McAuliffe may be doing the best job right now of the three of getting his message into the media... although that still doesn't seem to translate into a good performance in the general matchup.
UPDATE (James L.): Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen weighs in:
I think the answer here is in the timing of the poll being conducted. It was done Wednesday night. McDonnell resigned as Attorney General Tuesday and that was all over local tv news casts Tuesday, and then all over the state's newspapers on Wednesday. That level of exposure is unusual for a 24 hour media cycle this far out from November, and I bet it helped McDonnell to lead in the poll. I certainly don't think there was any nefarious intent in the timing of the poll but that sort of thing does have an impact.
Huge number of undecideds but check out the approvals.
"Moran has the best favorability marks from likely primary voters, with 34% having a positive opinion of him and just 10% viewing him negatively. McAuliffe is the most well known of the candidates, which cuts both ways. He has the second highest favorable rating, 30%, but also has easily the highest unfavorable rating at 23%. Deeds is the least well known of the trio with 67% of respondents having no opinion of him one way or the other."
Looks like anything could happen here but I guess McAuliffe has the edge with his financial advantage. Does anybody actually think he could win in November? This is a genuine question and not rhetorical.
With only 129 days until Virginia's June 9th Democratic gubernatorial primary, the race is in full swing. The good news for political junkies is that the race has been receiving a good deal of attention. For those looking for a fix, on Tuesday Public Policy Polling* will release head-to-head and favorability numbers for the Democratic Primary. Somepeople think that Tuesday's Sharon Bulova result will be important. But it is an all hands on deck for all the campaigns and the only candidate trying to up the ante is Terry McAuliffe in his attempt to smudge the fact he hasn't helped down ticket Commonwealth Democrats by glossing over with cash.
Virginia is a state with no limits on how much an individual, corporation or union can donate to a candidate running for state office, and some say McAuliffe could wage an $80 million campaign -- triple what Kaine spent four years ago -- if he is the Democratic nominee. ...
A friend of the Clintons, McAuliffe raised more than $200 million for Bill Clinton in the 1990s. As chairman of the Democratic National Committee from 2001 to 2005, he oversaw $500 million in party fundraising. McAuliffe chaired Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, which raised about $220 million. ...
Advisers to Moran and Deeds said they had been expecting that it would cost about $3 million to win the June 9 primary, but McAuliffe could spend triple that amount, launching a wave of television advertisements early in the spring that could drown out his opponents' messages.
The rules are the rules, and T-Mac has prodigious fundraising skills - I don't hold any of that against him. But I'm no great fan of his politically, and I'm hoping we'll still see a competitive primary. Even though there won't be a GOP contest, I think the primary date (June 9) gives us plenty of time to turn around and run a strong general election campaign no matter who our nominee is.
The WaPo piece does point out that Jim Webb beat Harris Miller in 2006 despite getting outspent 4-1, so anything is possible - but that was a flukey, extremely low turnout race. I suspect attention will be much greater this time. And I'll be very interested to see what the first polls show.
Creigh Deeds (D): 39
Robert McDonnell (R): 39
Some other candidate: 4
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Brian Moran (D): 41
Robert McDonnell (R): 37
Some other candidate: 5
Terry McAuliffe (D): 36
Robert McDonnell (R): 41
Some other candidate: 5
Rasmussen has polled the 2009 Virginia governor's race, and every configuration points to a close contest. Attorney General Robert McDonnell seems to be locked in as the Republican candidate, but the Democratic field is very much up in the air, with three credible candidates in the mix: Rep. Creigh Deeds (who narrowly lost to McDonnell in the 2005 AG's race), Rep. Brian Moran, and former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe. In the three head-to-heads, Moran fares the best, beating McDonnell by 4, while the nationally-known McAuliffe fares the worst, losing by 5. There is no poll included of the Democratic primary.
Although Deeds ran for statewide office four years ago, this may be primarily a case of name recognition; Moran is from Alexandria, so voters throughout the DC media market are likely to be familiar with him, while Deeds is from rural Bath County in southwestern Virginia. This creates an interesting strategic question: nominate Deeds and try to put into play another whole region of the state that otherwise wouldn't be (even if it's one that's vote-poor and shrinking), or nominate Moran and try to maximize Dem performance in northern Virginia, which is by far the biggest concentration of Democratic strength (but still can't, by itself, win a statewide election). As for McAuliffe, who, judging by his TV appearances this summer appears to be attempting to represent Margaritaville, name recognition may not be the problem so much as a perception of carpetbagging and/or sleazy insiderness.
