Ethan Berkowitz (D): 51 (51)
Don Young (R-inc): 43 (42)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
After the initial shock of Ted Stevens' indictment wore off (giving Mark Begich a huge boost), it seems like voters have been more and more willing to give Stevens some of the benefit of the doubt until a verdict is handed down, as the numbers in this race have drawn back to a tossup. With the case now in the hands of the jurors, it looks like we're likely to have a verdict (or a mistrial) before Election Day, so whatever happens in the jury box may well decide the election.
Things look a little more settled in the House race, where Ethan Berkowitz continues to lead Don Young by high double single-digits. One note for caution, though, while Berkowitz's favorables are as high as they've ever been in an Ivan Moore poll, the same is true of Young: Young's positive/negative rating is 44-47, also his best showing in an Ivan Moore poll... but Young's position in the head-to-head poll hasn't improved much. Maybe the good folks of Alaska are starting to fondly recall why they love their own little grizzled 1890s prospector, consarn it... but still plan to turn the page on him.
Perhaps most noteworthy in this poll is the presidential numbers, showing Obama climbing much closer to McCain at 53-42 (reverting closer to the pre-Palin numbers, down from as much as a 54-35 McCain lead during the GOP convention). Perhaps the novelty effect of an Alaskan on the ticket is starting to wear off.
Unbelievable. Politico is reporting key evidence against Stevens has been thrown out. The chances he'll get off just increased significantly.
Judge Emmet Sullivan threw out two big pieces of evidence in the Justice Department's prosecution of Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) after it was disclosed that prosecutors failed to provide defense attorneys with all the information they needed to put on their case.
Stevens' attorneys are also expected to offer a motion for acquittal on Thursday, once the government finishes putting on its case for conviction. Stevens' defense team has repeatedly sought to have the case dismissed or a mistrial declared due to alleged prosecutorial misconduct.
A federal judge is considering dismissing Sen. Ted Stevens's criminal case after government prosecutors violated a court order to turn over critical evidence to the Alaska Republican's defense team.
In a stunning beginning to a critical day in the trial, Judge Emmet G. Sullivan erupted at the Justice Department for waiting until just before midnight Wednesday to disclose FBI notes discussing Stevens's intent to pay for gifts that are at the center of his criminal trial.
"Why shouldn't I dismiss the indictment?" Sullivan fumed. "It strikes me this is probably intentional."
The judge said the two parties need to submit briefs to the court Thursday afternoon, and scheduled a 4:30 p.m. hearing to determine whether to dismiss the case.
But there is some hope:
But Sullivan seemed to be leaning more towards imposing "lesser sanctions," like delaying the trial until the government provides all redacted FBI notes to the defense.
Let's hope so. The Feds may have crumbed the play here, which would be very bad news for Mark Begich.
Mark Begich (D): 47
Ted Stevens (R-inc): 43
(MoE: ±4.0%)
Ethan Berkowitz (D): 47
Don Young (R-inc): 41
(MoE: ±4.0%)
Fairleigh Dickinson has decided to expand its operations from New Jersey... to Alaska? Well, at any rate, it's at an opportune time, as they join the pack of pollsters seeing tightening races in Alaska in the post-Palin environment (and as the initial shock of Uncle Ted's indictment fades). In fact, these numbers quite closely resemble those announced by Ivan Moore earlier today (Begich up 48-46, Berkowitz up 49-44).
Ominously for the incumbents, Stevens pulls down only 67% support from Republicans, and Young is supported by only 50% of Republicans. Both races are also built on glaring gender gaps: for instance, Young is up by 10 among men, while Berkowitz is up by 22 among women.
Ethan Berkowitz (D): 49 (54)
Don Young (R-inc): 44 (37)
In other words: these races are far from over. Ivan Moore offers some candid thoughts on why neither Begich or Berkowitz have been able to put their races away:
My thinking is that Begich stayed too long on his cutesy advertising message: He started off in the car wash talking about minimum wage and congressional pay increases, then segued to a charming No Child Left Behind ad featuring his son Jacob. Nice ads, both of them, but the feel is wrong. They don't set him up as being strong, decisive and dominant, they don't give him weight and gravitas, they don't establish him in effective contrast to Stevens, and I think therein lies the fall in numbers. All this while Ted's growling about how he's never going to get taken alive.
Begich needs something strong, something that portrays him as someone who can go to DC and kick ass. He needs to rely less on attack ads from the DSCC, which I don't think are doing him any good, and more on convincing people that he's got the balls to do this job.
I'm inclined to agree with his note on the DSCC's ads being counter-productive in this race. Look, you won't find a bigger booster of the party committees in the blogosphere than us, but the DSCC injecting itself into this contest allows Ted Stevens to frame the race around "enemies of Alaska" trying to "take him down". This stuff does not play well in Alaska. Just ask the Club For Growth, who learned their lesson the hard way.
And here's Moore on Berkowitz:
Berkowitz, on the other hand, has a problem. In the last two months, his positive hasn't moved anywhere and his negative's gone up nearly ten points. That despite a bunch of pre-primary advertising and a solid win in the primary. He needs to catch fire and he's not going about it the right way to make it happen. So far, we've seen him doing the walking and talking thing on his ads, and having a little love-in on his deck with people hanging on his every word. But for goodness sakes, he's running against Don Young! Where's the feistiness, where's the strength, where's the toughness, where's the courage that he had in Juneau to stand up to the powerbrokers and the lobbyists and the corruption? It hasn't appeared yet, and as a result, the race has narrowed to just five points.
Berkowitz and Begich both have the same problem. Both these races set up perceptually as contests between a couple of intellectual, wishy-washy, weak-kneed, liberal Ds (and that's not me talking, I'm channeling voter thoughts out there) and a couple of tough, grizzled, possibly corrupt but otherwise experienced old warhorses who know how to get the job done. It's incumbent on the Ds to show that the perception of them is false, and that they can stand toe-to-toe with Stevens and Young. But time is running out.
Sean Parnell (R): 42
Don Young (R-inc): 38
Gabrielle LeDoux (R): 8
(MoE: ±5.7%)
Last week we saw a poll for the GOP primary in the Alaska House race from Ivan Moore that had Young up by a solid 8-point margin. The Parnell camp counters with its own internal poll showing him beating Young by 4 points. The sample was taken on Aug. 5, so this is post-Trooper-gate.
The poll doesn't appear to test the various configurations for the general election. The primary will be held Aug. 26.
In other somewhat-related grumpy-old-corrupt-guys-from-Alaska news, the feds are fighting Ted Stevens' attempts to change the venue of his trial from Washington DC to Alaska, claiming the unlikelihood of finding an impartial jury. This is important, because a) any delay makes it less likely the trial will be resolved before Election Day, and b) Stevens will be able to campaign in his off-hours if the trial is in Alaska, while he can't if he's stuck in DC.
You have seen the latest poll by Rasmussen: Mark Begich 50%, Ted Stevens 41%. Not only is Mark an excellent candidate, but it looks like he will actually be a Democratic Senator from Alaska.
If you are in the DC area, you have the chance to meet Mark Begich on Wednesday, July 23rd. Blue Catapult PAc is hosting the event at a Dupont Circle watering hole:
When leaners are included, Begich leads by 52-44. This is the biggest lead that Begich has held in any of Rasmussen's polls of this race, and not quite in line with the most recent DailyKos/R2K poll that had Begich up by two points. We could be looking at an ad blitz bump for Begich, or this might be something of an outlier from what has been a very close race so far.
The SSP crew (and other bloggers) got the chance to meet with Begich at Netroots Nation, and I have to say that I was very impressed with his style, knowledge, and sense of humor. While this race will be very challenging as Stevens reminds voters of his four decades of public service this fall, we couldn't have asked for a better candidate to take him on.
Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 45-40 in the state, and by 49-44 when leaners are included. Spectacular numbers.
According to some new polls from Hellenthal (5/6-10), we've got some mixed news coming to us out of Alaska. First, the good news:
AK-Sen:
Mark Begich (D): 51 Ted Stevens (R-inc): 44
(MoE: ±6%)
Now, the tricky stuff:
AK-AL:
Sean Parnell (R): 37
Don Young (R-inc): 34
Gabrielle LeDoux (R): 8
Sean Parnell (R): 43
Ethan Berkowitz (D): 38
Ethan Berkowitz (D): 58
Don Young (R-inc): 38
So apparently, it's not the GOP "brand" itself that is suffering in Alaska; it's the corruption of two particular elected officials. Luckily, Stevens has no primary challenge (thus far!). [UPDATE: See below.] As far as Young is concerned . . . I guess we've got to hope he beats Parnell in the primary, or else our chances of taking that House seat are significantly diminished.
UPDATE (James): While the article doesn't offer any head-to-heads, the same poll tested Stevens' strength against his GOP primary challenger, Dave Cuddy, and found Stevens ahead by 15%. Weak.
