Oh boy, the wingnut is strong in these folks. Dave Weigel reports that Rep. Bill Posey (R-FL), (in)famous for his birther bill requiring documentation that a candidate for President was born in the U.S., has picked up four more co-sponsors, all Republicans (of course). They are:
John R. Carter (TX-31)
John Culberson (TX-07)
Randy Neugebauer (TX-19)
John Campbell (CA-48)
Rep. Bob Goodlatte (VA-06) had already signed on last month. More after the fold....
The Houston Chronicle has a couple of new polls out today by Zogby International (10/22-24, likely voters). Let's have a look.
TX-07:
Michael Skelly (D): 41
John Culberson (R-inc): 48
(MoE: ±4.9%)
TX-22:
Nick Lampson (D-inc): 36
Pete Olson (R): 53
(MoE: ±4.9%)
The 7th CD poll seems reasonable enough -- Skelly is running a strong race, but this is a very tough (R+16) district. The numbers from the Lampson race, though, seem a bit hard to believe. It's possible that Zogby has a bad sample here (this is Zogby we're talking about, after all), and the 22nd is one of the fastest-growing districts in the nation. A recent Benenson Strategy Group poll had Lampson and Olson tied at 42% each, an improvement over a July internal that had Lampson behind by 45-37. That's still well below any kind of comfort threshold, so I'm having a hard time feeling good about this one.
Over in the 7th, the Skelly campaign also released a new internal poll of their own.
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (10/22-23, likely voters, 9/7-9 in parens):
Michael Skelly (D): 44 (37)
John Culberson (R-inc): 49 (44)
Drew Parks: 3 (n/a)
Undecided: 4 (13)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Skelly has gained quite a bit of ground since the start of his campaign, but this one looks to be a tough nut to crack, indeed. The full polling memo is available below the fold.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/7-8, likely voters):
Michael Skelly (D): 40
John Culberson (R-inc): 48
(MoE: ±5%)
These are pretty remarkable numbers for a Democrat in this R+16 district (the 36th-most Republican district in the nation) that delivered 38 and 28-point wins to Bush in 2000 and 2004, respectively. They're also pretty similar to a GQR poll from last month that showed Skelly trailing Culberson by 37-44.
Skelly has run a flawless campaign, and these numbers prove not only that he's gaining traction, but that the district is continuing to trend just a bit bluer. Check out the Presidential numbers: McCain is only leading Obama by 51-39 in this affluent suburban Houston district. That's a far, far cry from the kinds of margins that Bush racked up here over his past two elections.
Michael Skelly (D): 37 (33)
John Culberson (R-inc): 44 (52)
Other: 6 (-)
Undecided: 13 (16)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
These are some nice numbers for Michael Skelly, whose summer ad campaign has clearly bought him some momentum against unaccomplished GOP Rep. John Culberson in this R+15.6 (but Dem-trending) suburban Houston district.
SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican, but we're diggin' this trend.
Democrat Michael Skelly has launched his first ad of the campaign against Republican incumbent John Culberson. The ad will air on both broadcast and cable. I think it's a nice introduction. Check it out:
I'm going to be highlighting House and Senate races around the country for the Bruin Democrats on our blog, as most of the presidential stuff is over with, so they can become SSP-like junkies too. :-) I'll probably make about 2-3 posts per week over there, each time focusing on a specific seat and filling them in on the background of the district and the dynamics in play. Unlike us junkies here, they're not going to be anywhere as familiar with who the people are, so I've got to start from the beginning. A 1Q report? What's that?
These posts are written as a primer so that someone with absolutely no prior knowledge about the seat or who the incumbent or challenger is can come away with a good idea of what's going on, and maybe even send some dollars over to the Democrat's campaign, if they feel compelled enough to do so.
So I figured I'd post what I wrote over there on SSP, since this is a site for us Congressional race junkies, after all. :-) Y'all probably know all this stuff already, but I hope you guys still find it entertaining and informative. The original post, below the fold.
Michael Skelly (D): 39%
John Culberson (R-inc): 57%
Undecided: 4%
(MoE: ±4.2%)
This isn't too far off from an earlier poll which showed Culberson up by 52-33. This is a deep red district -- with a PVI of R+15.6, it's about on par with Nick Lampson's TX-22. Skelly has turned some heads by raising a reported $750,000 in the first quarter of 2008, but he definitely still has an uphill climb here.
Michael Skelly made news recently by reporting extremely robust fundraising for a first time Democratic challenger in a traditionally Republican district. A high dollar DC pollster surveyed the race back in February and found him trailing incumbent John Culberson 52 to 33, with 16% undecided. After voters heard 'positive bios' for both candidates, that became a tie at 44. With the recent flurry of news on Skelly's fundraising, I thought I'd poll the race and see if there had been movement. Skelly's campaign has been out blockwalking, and I have noticed many online ads, but I don't think they have done any traditional advertising at this point.
My poll asked a series of questions about possible presidential matchups, the Senate race and finally the CD7 race. I also asked about the 2004 Bush/Kerry vote, which came back 64/36 for Bush, in line with the actual results for the district. Of the presidential matchups, Obama did slightly better than Clinton against McCain, but the Republican held a large lead in both matchups.
In the CD7 race, I identified each candidate's party, which may explain the unexpectedly low undecided response. Only 4% said they were undecided, with Culberson receiving 57% to Skelly's 39%. On the other hand, there was a significant amount of mixed-party support in various forms. Some went with Cornyn and Skelly, others with Noriega and Culberson, some that went Democratic for president but Republican for the lower ticket races and some that went McCain, Noriega and Skelly. Less than half supported all three Republicans, though that is probably the best spin for the Democrats to come out of this poll. Enough voters are willing to consider a non-Republican, but a Democratic candidate would need flawless execution and a little luck.
For CD7, the older the voter, the more likely the support for Culberson. Voters under 40 were +8 for Culberson, 40-59 were +18 and 60+ were +23. There was no gender gap, as Culberson got the same percentage from both men and women. Non-white percentages are too small to provide meaningful crosstabs, but Skelly does lead Culberson here.
For the Senate race, Cornyn leads Noriega 58 to 39 in the district. Despite the similar results, about 6% of Cornyn's support went with Skelly, and a similar amount of Culberson's support went with Noriega. In general, the Noriega/Culberson flippers have a higher percentage of older women than average, and the Cornyn/Skelly flippers have a higher percentage of men than average, not concentrated in any one age group.
